S&P Global Ratings Projects Macau Casino Sector Growth to Slow to 3%-7% by 2026
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 20 2026
0mins
Source: seekingalpha
- Maturity Phase: S&P Global anticipates that the Macau casino sector will transition to a maturity phase by 2026, with overall revenue growth slowing to 3%-7%, yet steady operations and selective market share gains will still support modest upside potential.
- Revenue Growth Forecast: The total Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) for Macau is projected to increase by 3%-7% year-on-year in 2026, down from 9.1% in 2025, primarily due to near-full hotel occupancy and limited new capacity.
- Market Share Dynamics: Las Vegas Sands and MGM are expected to gain market share in the mass market segment, benefiting from the opening of new hotels and a recovery in market demand, driving accelerated EBITDA growth.
- Investor Sentiment Analysis: Jefferies analysts believe that current valuations of Macau casino stocks, ranging from 8-10X EBITDA, are undemanding, particularly highlighting WYNN and LVS as favorites in the U.S. market, indicating potential for future upside.
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Analyst Views on LVS
Wall Street analysts forecast LVS stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for LVS is 69.12 USD with a low forecast of 56.89 USD and a high forecast of 80.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
14 Analyst Rating
10 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 61.260
Low
56.89
Averages
69.12
High
80.00
Current: 61.260
Low
56.89
Averages
69.12
High
80.00
About LVS
Las Vegas Sands Corp. is a global developer and operator of destination properties (Integrated Resorts). The Integrated Resorts feature accommodations, gaming, entertainment and retail malls, convention and exhibition facilities, celebrity chef restaurants and other amenities. Its properties also cater to high-end players by providing them with luxury amenities and premium service levels. Its other amenities include luxury accommodations, restaurants, lounges, invitation-only clubs and private gaming salons. Its principal operating and developmental activities occur in two geographic areas: Macao and Singapore. In Macao, it owns The Venetian Macao Resort Hotel; The Londoner Macao; The Parisian Macao; The Plaza Macao and Four Seasons Macao, and Sands Macao. In Singapore, it owns Marina Bay Sands. It also has ferry operations. It owns and operates a collection of Integrated Resorts in the Macao Special Administrative Region of the People's Republic of China (PRC) through Sands China Ltd.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Las Vegas Sands Shares Drop 10% Due to Issues in Macau.
- Earnings Overview: Las Vegas Sands reported earnings that were not as negative as expected.
- Macau Challenges: The company is facing significant issues in Macau, the largest gambling hub in the world.
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Las Vegas Sands Reports Record Q4 2025 Earnings
- Record Performance: Marina Bay Sands achieved $806 million in EBITDA in Q4 2025, marking the highest in casino hotel history and a 27% increase year-over-year, reflecting the company's strong position in the high-value tourism market.
- Macao Market Challenges: Despite Macao's EBITDA of $608 million, the margin fell to 28.9%, with management acknowledging intense competitive pressures and emphasizing the need for strategic adjustments to achieve margin recovery in 2026.
- Share Repurchase Program: The company repurchased $500 million in LVS stock this quarter and increased its ownership in SCL to 74.8%, demonstrating a continued commitment to shareholder returns while laying the groundwork for future growth.
- Future Outlook: Management expects EBITDA to grow alongside revenue, planning to leverage scale and product advantages to better address market demands, showcasing confidence in Singapore while adopting a cautious stance on Macao's prospects.
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