Scott Bessent Cautions About Potential 'Half' Refund on Tariff Revenue If Supreme Court Decides Unfavorably—Experts Suggest Trump Might Have an Alternative Strategy

Supreme Court Appeal and Tariff Concerns: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed concerns about the potential economic impact if the Supreme Court rules against the Trump administration's tariffs, warning that it could lead to significant refunds and a weakened Treasury.

Backup Plans for Tariffs: The Trump administration reportedly has a backup plan to maintain tariffs regardless of the Supreme Court's decision, potentially invoking different legal provisions to offset revenue losses and sustain an effective tariff rate.

Economic Implications of Tariff Losses: Experts warn that losing the tariffs could lower the effective tariff rate and increase the federal budget deficit, with significant revenue already generated from tariffs this year.

Market Reactions and Economic Warnings: President Trump has raised alarms about an "economic emergency" and potential stock market impacts if the Supreme Court ruling is unfavorable, while stock indices have shown positive year-to-date performance.