Rio Tinto Raises Copper Production Forecast for FY25; Projects 40-50% Increase in EBITDA by FY30
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Dec 04 2025
0mins
Source: NASDAQ.COM
Production Growth Expectations: Rio Tinto anticipates a 7% production growth in 2025, with an upgraded copper production forecast of 860-875 kt, up from 780-850 kt.
Long-term Earnings Outlook: The company projects a potential 40-50% increase in EBITDA by 2030, supported by a 3% annual production growth and a 20% rise in copper equivalent production.
Bauxite and Alumina Projections: Bauxite production for 2025 is expected to exceed previous guidance of 59-61 Mt, while aluminium production is anticipated to be at the upper end of the 3.25-3.45 Mt range.
IOC Production Downgrade: The production guidance for IOC in 2025 has been downgraded to 9.0-9.5 Mt from an earlier estimate of 9.7-11.4 Mt.
Analyst Views on RIO
Wall Street analysts forecast RIO stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for RIO is 83.70 USD with a low forecast of 68.00 USD and a high forecast of 129.50 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 87.300
Low
68.00
Averages
83.70
High
129.50
Current: 87.300
Low
68.00
Averages
83.70
High
129.50
About RIO
Rio Tinto plc is a United Kingdom-based mining and materials company. It operates in over 35 countries, and its portfolio includes iron ore, copper, aluminum and a range of other minerals and materials. Its segments include Iron Ore, Aluminum, Copper, and Minerals. The Iron Ore segment includes iron ore mining and salt and gypsum production in Western Australia. Its iron ore operations in Pilbara comprise an integrated network of over 18 iron ore mines and four independent port terminals. The Aluminum segment includes bauxite mining, alumina refining, and aluminum smelting and recycling. The Copper segment includes mining and refining of copper, gold, silver, molybdenum, other by-products and licensing of extraction technologies. The Minerals segment includes mining and processing of borates, diamonds, iron concentrate and pellets from the Iron Ore Company of Canada, lithium and titanium dioxide feedstock.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
