Rigetti Computing's Technology Lags, Misses DARPA Program Support
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 25 2026
0mins
Should l Buy RGTI?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
- Accuracy Issues: Rigetti's two-qubit gate fidelity stands at only 99.5%, significantly trailing IonQ's 99.99%, which severely impacts its competitiveness in quantum computing, especially as it falls below the 99.9% threshold recommended by data scientists for effective error correction.
- Government Program Setback: Rigetti's failure to advance to Stage B of the DARPA Quantum Benchmarking Initiative highlights its technological shortcomings, missing out on crucial government support that could affect future funding and partnership opportunities.
- System Launch Delay: The company has postponed the release of its new 108-qubit Cepheus-1-108Q system to improve its error rate, a delay that not only affects the product's market entry but may also diminish customer confidence, impacting sales and market share.
- Market Sentiment: Despite Rigetti's stock climbing over 45% in 2025 and more than 10% in 2026, analysts remain cautious about its future, suggesting that small orders will not change its lagging position in the quantum computing race, advising investors to stay on the sidelines.
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Analyst Views on RGTI
Wall Street analysts forecast RGTI stock price to rise
10 Analyst Rating
7 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 13.500
Low
30.00
Averages
39.75
High
51.00
Current: 13.500
Low
30.00
Averages
39.75
High
51.00
About RGTI
Rigetti Computing, Inc. is a full-stack quantum computing company. The Company operates quantum computers over the cloud and serves global enterprise, government, and research clients through its Rigetti Quantum Cloud Services platform. The Company’s quantum-classical infrastructure provides high-performance integration with public and private clouds for practical quantum computing. It has developed a multi-chip quantum processor for scalable quantum computing systems. Through the Company’s Quantum Computing as a Service (QCaaS) platform, its machines can be integrated into any public, private or hybrid cloud. It is also engaged in the sale of quantum processing units (QPUs) and custom computing components, and development contracts and other services. Its QPUs contain fabricated silicon-based chips featuring superconducting qubits. The Company designs and manufactures its chips in-house at Fab-1, an integrated quantum device manufacturing facility.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Investment Outlook in Quantum Computing Sector
- D-Wave Performance Growth: D-Wave achieved $24.6 million in sales for 2025, marking a 179% year-over-year increase, and secured over $30 million in customer bookings in January 2026, indicating enhanced market traction and potential for further revenue growth.
- Rigetti Financial Challenges: Rigetti reported $7.1 million in sales for 2025, a 34% decline, with an operating loss of $84.7 million; despite having $443.5 million in cash and short-term investments, the company faces significant profitability pressures.
- Acquisition Strategy Impact: D-Wave's acquisition of Quantum Circuits in 2026 strengthens its competitive position in quantum computing, particularly in solving optimization problems, thereby filling a critical gap in its product offerings and enhancing market competitiveness.
- Investment Choice Analysis: Between D-Wave and Rigetti, D-Wave is viewed as the superior investment due to its higher cash reserves and growing revenue, along with a lower price-to-sales ratio, reflecting stronger investor confidence in its future growth prospects.
See More
D-Wave and Rigetti Quantum Stocks Drop Double Digits Year-to-Date
- Poor Market Performance: D-Wave and Rigetti stocks have dropped 47% and 40% year-to-date, respectively, indicating a decline in investor confidence in the quantum computing sector, particularly following Wall Street's shift towards lower-valued stocks in the 'great rotation' of 2026.
- Financial Strain: Rigetti reported $7.1 million in sales for 2025, a 34% decline year-over-year, with an operating loss of $84.7 million; despite holding $443.5 million in cash and short-term investments, the company faces significant profitability challenges.
- Rapid Growth for D-Wave: D-Wave's customer bookings exceeded $30 million in January 2026, a substantial increase from $13.4 million in Q4 2025, indicating accelerating market demand, although it recorded an operating loss of $100.4 million in 2025.
- Acquisition Strategy Enhances Competitiveness: D-Wave's acquisition of Quantum Circuits in 2026 fills a gap in its offerings related to gate-model technology, which is expected to strengthen its position in solving optimization problems, thereby enhancing its competitive edge.
See More
Rigetti Sells Novera QPU System to University of Saskatchewan for Quantum Computing
- Quantum System Sale: Rigetti Computing has sold a Novera QPU system to the University of Saskatchewan, which was shipped in March and will serve as the core of the university's first quantum computing system, marking a significant expansion into the educational sector.
- Academic Collaboration Opportunity: By providing access to real quantum computing hardware, the University of Saskatchewan will enable students and researchers to pursue groundbreaking advances in quantum science and technology, thereby enhancing its academic standing in quantum research.
- New Phase of Technological Exploration: Rigetti CEO Subodh Kulkarni stated that the university's selection of the Novera QPU signifies a new phase of exploration and innovation in quantum technology, reflecting confidence and commitment to the future of quantum computing.
- Future Investment Plans: Rigetti plans to invest up to $100 million in the UK to expand its quantum computing capabilities and aims to achieve a target of over 1,000 qubits by the end of 2027, further solidifying its leadership position in the quantum computing market.
See More
Nvidia Positions Itself in Quantum Computing Market
- Quantum Computing Potential: Nvidia is extending its CUDA software platform into quantum toolkits, enabling researchers to run quantum circuit simulations directly on its GPUs, compressing computation times from years to hours, significantly enhancing the feasibility and affordability of quantum experimentation.
- Market Dominance: Currently, Nvidia powers over 90% of the world's AI data centers with its hardware and software, and by controlling both classical computing acceleration and quantum simulation software, it is building an ecosystem that rivals find hard to match, driving industry applications for quantum AI.
- Robust Profit Model: Unlike speculative quantum startups that are burning cash, Nvidia generates billions in annual profits from its data center business, providing strong financial backing for its long-term quantum computing ambitions.
- Optimistic Investment Outlook: While the market still views Nvidia as a hardware vendor, savvy investors recognize that the company is becoming the operating system for the quantum age, allowing investors to leverage a $1,000 investment to benefit from steady data center growth while capturing asymmetric upside as quantum computing matures.
See More
Nvidia Positions Itself in Quantum AI Ecosystem
- Quantum Computing Potential: Nvidia is leveraging its existing hardware and software capabilities to build a quantum AI ecosystem, which is expected to disrupt the capabilities of current supercomputers, thereby unlocking new value growth opportunities for the company.
- Software Platform Expansion: Nvidia's CUDA software platform is being extended into quantum toolkits, enabling researchers to run quantum circuit simulations directly on Nvidia GPUs, significantly reducing simulation times from years to hours and enhancing development efficiency.
- Market Competitive Advantage: Unlike pure-play quantum startups, Nvidia generates billions in annual profits from its data center business, which can fund the long-term development of quantum computing, further solidifying its market leadership position.
- Investor Opportunities: While the market still views Nvidia as a hardware vendor, savvy investors recognize that the company is becoming the operating system for the quantum age, allowing them to capture asymmetric upside while benefiting from steady data center growth.
See More
Analysis of Quantum Computing Investment Prospects
- Technology Comparison: Rigetti Computing utilizes superconducting technology by cooling particles to near absolute zero for computing, while D-Wave Quantum employs quantum annealing, focusing on searching multiple solutions simultaneously; although the latter has limited adaptability for general computing, it excels in specific applications.
- Financial Health Assessment: D-Wave Quantum shows healthier financials with announced early-stage system sales, including a $20 million contract with Florida Atlantic University and a €10 million ($11.5 million) booking in Italy, whereas Rigetti's flagship sale was only $8.4 million, indicating a declining business trend.
- Importance of Partnerships: Rigetti was eliminated in the DARPA contract bid, indicating its technology is lagging behind competitors, while D-Wave has established partnerships with several manufacturing companies, enhancing its market competitiveness and positioning for future growth.
- Investment Recommendation: Despite D-Wave Quantum outperforming Rigetti in various aspects with a final score of 2-1, its strategy of specializing in specific areas is deemed wise, making it the more attractive stock to invest in at this time.
See More
Investment Outlook in Quantum Computing Sector
- D-Wave Performance Growth: D-Wave achieved $24.6 million in sales for 2025, marking a 179% year-over-year increase, and secured over $30 million in customer bookings in January 2026, indicating enhanced market traction and potential for further revenue growth.
- Rigetti Financial Challenges: Rigetti reported $7.1 million in sales for 2025, a 34% decline, with an operating loss of $84.7 million; despite having $443.5 million in cash and short-term investments, the company faces significant profitability pressures.
- Acquisition Strategy Impact: D-Wave's acquisition of Quantum Circuits in 2026 strengthens its competitive position in quantum computing, particularly in solving optimization problems, thereby filling a critical gap in its product offerings and enhancing market competitiveness.
- Investment Choice Analysis: Between D-Wave and Rigetti, D-Wave is viewed as the superior investment due to its higher cash reserves and growing revenue, along with a lower price-to-sales ratio, reflecting stronger investor confidence in its future growth prospects.
See More
D-Wave and Rigetti Quantum Stocks Drop Double Digits Year-to-Date
- Poor Market Performance: D-Wave and Rigetti stocks have dropped 47% and 40% year-to-date, respectively, indicating a decline in investor confidence in the quantum computing sector, particularly following Wall Street's shift towards lower-valued stocks in the 'great rotation' of 2026.
- Financial Strain: Rigetti reported $7.1 million in sales for 2025, a 34% decline year-over-year, with an operating loss of $84.7 million; despite holding $443.5 million in cash and short-term investments, the company faces significant profitability challenges.
- Rapid Growth for D-Wave: D-Wave's customer bookings exceeded $30 million in January 2026, a substantial increase from $13.4 million in Q4 2025, indicating accelerating market demand, although it recorded an operating loss of $100.4 million in 2025.
- Acquisition Strategy Enhances Competitiveness: D-Wave's acquisition of Quantum Circuits in 2026 fills a gap in its offerings related to gate-model technology, which is expected to strengthen its position in solving optimization problems, thereby enhancing its competitive edge.
See More
Rigetti Sells Novera QPU System to University of Saskatchewan for Quantum Computing
- Quantum System Sale: Rigetti Computing has sold a Novera QPU system to the University of Saskatchewan, which was shipped in March and will serve as the core of the university's first quantum computing system, marking a significant expansion into the educational sector.
- Academic Collaboration Opportunity: By providing access to real quantum computing hardware, the University of Saskatchewan will enable students and researchers to pursue groundbreaking advances in quantum science and technology, thereby enhancing its academic standing in quantum research.
- New Phase of Technological Exploration: Rigetti CEO Subodh Kulkarni stated that the university's selection of the Novera QPU signifies a new phase of exploration and innovation in quantum technology, reflecting confidence and commitment to the future of quantum computing.
- Future Investment Plans: Rigetti plans to invest up to $100 million in the UK to expand its quantum computing capabilities and aims to achieve a target of over 1,000 qubits by the end of 2027, further solidifying its leadership position in the quantum computing market.
See More
Nvidia Positions Itself in Quantum Computing Market
- Quantum Computing Potential: Nvidia is extending its CUDA software platform into quantum toolkits, enabling researchers to run quantum circuit simulations directly on its GPUs, compressing computation times from years to hours, significantly enhancing the feasibility and affordability of quantum experimentation.
- Market Dominance: Currently, Nvidia powers over 90% of the world's AI data centers with its hardware and software, and by controlling both classical computing acceleration and quantum simulation software, it is building an ecosystem that rivals find hard to match, driving industry applications for quantum AI.
- Robust Profit Model: Unlike speculative quantum startups that are burning cash, Nvidia generates billions in annual profits from its data center business, providing strong financial backing for its long-term quantum computing ambitions.
- Optimistic Investment Outlook: While the market still views Nvidia as a hardware vendor, savvy investors recognize that the company is becoming the operating system for the quantum age, allowing investors to leverage a $1,000 investment to benefit from steady data center growth while capturing asymmetric upside as quantum computing matures.
See More
Nvidia Positions Itself in Quantum AI Ecosystem
- Quantum Computing Potential: Nvidia is leveraging its existing hardware and software capabilities to build a quantum AI ecosystem, which is expected to disrupt the capabilities of current supercomputers, thereby unlocking new value growth opportunities for the company.
- Software Platform Expansion: Nvidia's CUDA software platform is being extended into quantum toolkits, enabling researchers to run quantum circuit simulations directly on Nvidia GPUs, significantly reducing simulation times from years to hours and enhancing development efficiency.
- Market Competitive Advantage: Unlike pure-play quantum startups, Nvidia generates billions in annual profits from its data center business, which can fund the long-term development of quantum computing, further solidifying its market leadership position.
- Investor Opportunities: While the market still views Nvidia as a hardware vendor, savvy investors recognize that the company is becoming the operating system for the quantum age, allowing them to capture asymmetric upside while benefiting from steady data center growth.
See More
Analysis of Quantum Computing Investment Prospects
- Technology Comparison: Rigetti Computing utilizes superconducting technology by cooling particles to near absolute zero for computing, while D-Wave Quantum employs quantum annealing, focusing on searching multiple solutions simultaneously; although the latter has limited adaptability for general computing, it excels in specific applications.
- Financial Health Assessment: D-Wave Quantum shows healthier financials with announced early-stage system sales, including a $20 million contract with Florida Atlantic University and a €10 million ($11.5 million) booking in Italy, whereas Rigetti's flagship sale was only $8.4 million, indicating a declining business trend.
- Importance of Partnerships: Rigetti was eliminated in the DARPA contract bid, indicating its technology is lagging behind competitors, while D-Wave has established partnerships with several manufacturing companies, enhancing its market competitiveness and positioning for future growth.
- Investment Recommendation: Despite D-Wave Quantum outperforming Rigetti in various aspects with a final score of 2-1, its strategy of specializing in specific areas is deemed wise, making it the more attractive stock to invest in at this time.
See More
