Stock Performance: CHINA LIFE's stock (02628.HK) experienced a decline of 1.499%, closing at -0.360. The short selling activity reached $186.55 million, with a short selling ratio of 23.657%.
Value of New Business (VNB): In the first half of 2025, CHINA LIFE reported a 20% year-over-year growth in VNB, aligning with market expectations. This growth was significantly driven by a remarkable 179% increase in the bancassurance channel and a 9.5% rise in the agent channel, as noted in a report by DBS Group Research.
Financial Metrics
Contractual Service Margin (CSM): The CSM of new business saw a decline of 31% year-over-year due to fluctuations in interest rates. However, the overall CSM balance increased by 1.6% year-over-year, attributed to improved operating variances.
Interim Financial Results: CHINA LIFE reported an interim net profit of RMB 40.93 billion, reflecting a 6.9% increase. The company also declared an interim dividend per share (DPS) of RMB 0.238, which is a 19% increase year-over-year, marking a positive surprise for investors.
Analyst Recommendations
Earnings Forecast and Target Price: Following the positive financial results, the broker maintained its earnings forecast for CHINA LIFE and set a target price of $26. The stock rating has been reiterated as a Buy, indicating confidence in the company's future performance.
02628
$27.38+Infinity%1D
Analyst Views on 02628
Wall Street analysts forecast 02628 stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for 02628 is USD with a low forecast of USD and a high forecast of USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast 02628 stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for 02628 is USD with a low forecast of USD and a high forecast of USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Current: 28.560
Low
Averages
High
Current: 28.560
Low
Averages
High
Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs
Neutral
maintain
2025-11-10
Reason
Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs
Price Target
2025-11-10
maintain
Neutral
Reason
Goldman Sachs adjusted its analyst rating for CHINA LIFE (02628.HK) based on the company's strong performance in its 3Q25 results, particularly noting that its investment income exceeded expectations. This led to a significant increase in their full-year net profit forecast by 69% and a 7% increase in the 2025-27 first-year premium forecasts. Additionally, the positive performance of the bank insurance sales channel and management's optimistic outlook for 2026 contributed to the adjustments. Goldman Sachs also raised its per-share dividend forecasts by 10% due to an expanded investment portfolio and stronger premium inflow, with this year's dividend expected to grow by 23% YoY, surpassing previous estimates. Despite these positive adjustments, the target price was raised from HKD22.5 to HKD24.5, while maintaining a Neutral rating.
CMB International
CMB International
maintain
$29 -> $31
2025-11-05
Reason
CMB International
CMB International
Price Target
$29 -> $31
2025-11-05
maintain
Reason
CMB International maintained a Buy rating for China Life due to the company's impressive 3Q25 results, which showed a nearly doubling of net profit to RMB126 billion, representing a 92% year-over-year increase. This strong performance, driven by both insurance service results and investment results, led CMB International to raise its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for FY2025-27 and revise the FY2025 new business value (NBV) growth forecast to 38%. Additionally, the target price for China Life was increased from HK$29 to HK$31, reflecting confidence in the company's growth trajectory.
Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley
maintain
$25.7
2025-10-31
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
$25.7
2025-10-31
maintain
Reason
The analyst rating for CHINA LIFE (02628.HK) is set at "Overweight" due to several key factors highlighted in the article. Firstly, the company reported the highest earnings growth among its peers in 3Q25, with a remarkable net profit increase of 60.5% for the first nine months of 2025. This performance translates to an annualized return on equity (ROE) of 88.3% for 3Q25 and 39.4% for 9M25, indicating strong profitability. Additionally, the value of new business (VONB) accelerated significantly to 41.8% in 9M25, up from 20.3% in the first half of the year. Morgan Stanley noted that CHINA LIFE outperformed most of its peers across multiple indicators and that the management has a positive outlook for the upcoming year. These factors contributed to the positive analyst rating and the target price of HKD25.7.
UBS
UBS
maintain
$29
2025-10-31
Reason
UBS
UBS
Price Target
$29
2025-10-31
maintain
Reason
The analyst rating from UBS on CHINA LIFE (02628.HK) is a "Buy" with a target price of HKD29. This positive rating is based on the company's strong performance, highlighted by a 42% year-over-year increase in Value of New Business (VNB) for the first nine months of 2025, which exceeded market expectations. Additionally, the net profit after tax (NPAT) grew by 61% to RMB168 billion, aligning with the mid-range of earlier profit forecasts. The strong VNB growth this year contributes to a more constructive outlook for the company in the upcoming year.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
