<Research>CMSI Expects LT Growth for MAO GEPING (01318.HK), Initiates Coverage w/ Rating Overweight
Revenue Growth Projection: CMSI forecasts that MAO GEPING's revenue will increase from RMB3.9 billion in 2024 to RMB9.8 billion by 2027, achieving a CAGR of 36% due to the maturation of star products and synergies across business segments.
Investment Rating and Valuation Potential: CMSI has initiated coverage on MAO GEPING with an Overweight rating and a target price of $102.4, suggesting potential for increased valuation to a PE ratio of 50x if the company successfully expands its brand positioning in Asia.
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Market Opening: The HSI, HSCEI, and HSTECH opened lower, with declines of 0.3% and 0.7%, reflecting a negative market sentiment.
ANTA SPORTS Performance: ANTA SPORTS saw a 5.6% drop in share price due to low retail sales growth and management's indication of a challenging investment year ahead.
Other Stock Movements: LI NING and POP MART also experienced declines, while SINOTRUK reported a significant block trade despite a slight opening increase.
Financial Sector Trends: Major financial stocks like HSBC, HKEX, and AIA faced minor declines, while gold-related stocks like CHINAGOLDINTL and ZIJIN MINING saw gains amidst rising gold prices.

US Stock Market Impact: President Trump's threat to impose "Greenland tariffs" negatively affected US stock futures, leading to a decline in Hong Kong stocks, with the HSI down 0.3% and significant drops in major tech stocks like Tencent and Meituan.
Tech Sector Performance: Major tech companies experienced losses, with Tencent and Meituan dropping 1.5% and 1.2%, respectively, while JD and Bilibili saw slight gains. AI-related stocks had mixed results, with Knowledge Atlas plunging 7.4%.
Mobile and Chip Sector Declines: Mobile component stocks like AAC Tech and Sunny Optical fell over 3%, while chip sector stocks, including SMIC and Innosilicon, also experienced declines of up to 3.6%.
Consumer Stocks Surge: Consumer stocks rose, particularly Pop Mart, which surged 9.1% after repurchasing shares for the first time in nearly two years, while other consumer-related stocks benefited from extended loan interest subsidies in Mainland China.

Market Performance: The HSI closed down 11 points at 26,552, with the HSCEI and HSTECH also experiencing slight declines. Total market turnover for the half-day was HKD129.845 billion.
Tech Stock Movements: Major tech stocks like TENCENT and BIDU-SW fell by approximately 1.5%, while JD-SW and BILIBILI-W saw gains of around 1.1% and 1.2%, respectively.
Sector Highlights: Consumer stocks performed well, with POP MART surging 8.5% after announcing a share buyback, while pharmaceutical stocks like HENGRUI PHARMA and WUXI APPTEC faced significant declines.
Economic Indicators: China's Fixed Asset Investment for December showed a year-on-year decrease of -3.8%, and the GDP growth rate for Q4 was reported at 4.5%, slightly below expectations.
Short Selling Activity: MAO GEPING has reported short selling of $7.10 million with a ratio of 10.747%.
H Share Full Circulation Filing: The company has completed a filing with the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) for the implementation of H Share Full Circulation involving 228 million unlisted shares.
Filing Validity: The filing notice issued by the CSRC is valid for 12 months, starting from January 13, 2026.
Listing Application: MAO GEPING plans to apply to the Stock Exchange's listing committee for approval to list and trade the relevant H Shares.

Citi Research Forecast: Citi Research predicts a shift in investor portfolios between 'value' and 'growth' in China's consumption sector, emphasizing a cautious outlook on immediate government consumption stimulation in a low-inflation environment.
Top Stock Picks: In the consumer discretionary sector, Citi's top picks include ANTA SPORTS, POP MART, HAIDILAO, Atour Lifestyle, and MIDEA GROUP, while in consumer staples, they favor CHINA RES BEER, EASTROC BEVERAGE, and MAO GEPING.
Potential Outperformance: If China's consumption recovery surpasses expectations, stocks like LI NING, CTG DUTY-FREE, and HAITIAN FLAV are anticipated to outperform the market.
Short Selling Data: The report includes short selling data for various stocks, indicating market sentiment and potential risks associated with these investments.

Shareholder Actions: MAO GEPING's controlling shareholders and executive directors plan to reduce their holdings due to personal financial needs, which could impact the stock price significantly.
Market Reaction: The announcement has led to a short selling of $32.99 million, with a ratio of 11.890%, indicating potential short-term pressure on the stock.
Earnings Outlook: Despite the potential share reduction, Citi reports a strong earnings outlook for MAO GEPING, projecting a 28% increase in EPS this year.
Broker Rating: Citi has rated MAO GEPING as a Buy with a target price of HKD82, while initiating a 30-day short-term downside observation period for the stock.






