PONY-W Plans to Enter the Luxury Robotaxi Market

Profit Alert: PONY-W issued a positive profit alert, expecting a reduced net loss for 2025 between USD 69 million and USD 86 million, significantly lower than the USD 275 million loss in 2024.

Attributable Losses: The net loss attributable to Pony AI Inc. is projected to be between USD 126 million and USD 143 million for 2025, down from USD 274 million in 2024.

Reason for Decrease: The anticipated decrease in losses is primarily due to an increase in gains from fair value changes in investments in publicly traded companies during the reporting period.

Market Activity: As of February 3, 2026, PONY-W experienced short selling of $15.43 million, with a short selling ratio of 20.579%.

Citi's Outlook on Chinese Carmakers: Citi has a neutral outlook for Chinese carmakers in 1Q26, predicting that BYD, Geely, and Leapmotor may outperform the market due to model updates and strong export growth, while others like Seres and Li Auto may struggle with profit margins and weak sales.

Industry Challenges and Tailwinds: The Chinese auto industry is expected to face five major tailwinds, including increased EV market share and export growth, but also five challenges such as rising costs and cautious retail growth for EVs, leading to a potential decline in wholesale and retail forecasts for FY26.

Stock Recommendations: Citi has recommended several stocks, including BYD, Pony, WeRide, Hesai, Minth Group, and Weichai Power, amidst a backdrop of short selling activity and varying market performance.

Market Conditions: The report highlights a potential end to the price war in passenger vehicles and a favorable phase for commercial vehicle demand, while also noting high inventory levels of fuel vehicles as a concern for the market.

Business Collaboration: PONY-W has partnered with Aitebo to create a fully autonomous driving service fleet, enhancing the application of autonomous driving technology in urban and travel scenarios.

Fleet Development: The collaboration focuses on developing a fleet based on PONY-W's 7th-generation Robotaxi model, targeting transportation needs between urban areas and airports or high-speed rail stations.

Market Performance: The HSI rose 0.33% to 26,718, with total half-day turnover reaching $127.938 billion, while the HSCEI and HSTECH also saw slight increases.

BABA-W Support: Alibaba's share price increased by 2.6% after rumors of supporting its chip subsidiary's separate listing, coinciding with the acceptance of Enflame's IPO application.

Sector Movements: Chip stocks experienced declines, with notable drops in SMIC and HUA HONG SEMI, while financials showed mixed results, with HSBC sliding slightly and HKEX gaining.

Stock Highlights: BYD and robotics stocks like JOHNSON ELEC faced losses, while XIAOMI surged 2.5% following a share buyback announcement, and POP MART's new product launch boosted its shares by 6.5%.

Policies for AI-Enabled Transportation: Guangdong Province has introduced policies to promote high-quality development in AI-enabled transportation, focusing on core technology breakthroughs and innovative product development in areas like remote driving and intelligent decision-making.

Support for Autonomous Driving Initiatives: The policies encourage cities to develop regulatory platforms for autonomous driving, support pilot demonstrations in free trade zones, and expand road testing applications for autonomous vehicles.

Progress in Unmanned Delivery: Guangdong Province has seen success in unmanned delivery, with Nansha, Guangzhou becoming a pilot area for autonomous driving test roads and attracting companies for unmanned logistics operations.

Market Impact: The developments in the auto industry, particularly in exports and intelligence, are expected to drive high growth, as highlighted by UBS's analysis of the Chinese auto market.

China's Auto Industry Challenges: UBS highlights that despite a 19% sales growth target for China's auto industry, challenges such as reduced stimulus, increased taxes, and rising commodity prices may hinder domestic demand and profit margins.

Focus on Export and Technology: Investors are advised to target companies with overseas expansion capabilities and strengths in intelligent technology, as the export market becomes vital for growth, especially with agreements on EV pricing with the EU and reduced tariffs from Canada.

Company Strategies for Growth: GWMOTOR plans to export 600,000 cars in 2026, while SINOTRUK aims to enter the Brazilian and European markets, reflecting a strategic shift towards international markets.

Investment Preferences: UBS favors companies involved in autonomous driving and intelligent technology, such as WERIDE-W, PONY-W, and HESAI-W, as well as automakers like BYD and GWMOTOR with strong global market presence.