Oppenheimer Downgrades Mosaic to 'Perform' Amid Tight Sulfur Market Conditions into 2026
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1h ago
0mins
Source: stocktwits
- Rating Downgrade: Oppenheimer downgraded Mosaic from 'Outperform' to 'Perform' and removed the previous $35 price target, reflecting concerns over the company's weak preliminary Q4 2025 results and the challenging market outlook.
- Deteriorating Market Conditions: Fertilizer demand in North America sharply declined due to economic pressures and an early winter, with phosphate sales estimated at about 1.3 million tonnes and potash sales near 2.2 million tonnes, resulting in increased cash flow pressures.
- Challenges in Brazil: In Brazil, tighter credit and increased competition from lower-grade phosphate imports from China weighed on demand and margins, leading to Mosaic Fertilizantes' sales falling short of expectations, despite flat full-year volumes, indicating heightened market risks.
- Future Outlook: Mosaic anticipates a more favorable market setup in 2026, supported by nutrient replenishment needs, government support programs, tightening phosphate markets, and reduced Chinese exports, which could gradually lift demand and prices, although there is currently no clear catalyst to boost fertilizer demand.
Analyst Views on MOS
Wall Street analysts forecast MOS stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MOS is 34.69 USD with a low forecast of 26.00 USD and a high forecast of 43.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
13 Analyst Rating
6 Buy
7 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 27.580
Low
26.00
Averages
34.69
High
43.00
Current: 27.580
Low
26.00
Averages
34.69
High
43.00
About MOS
The Mosaic Company is a producer and marketer of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients. The Company’s segments include Phosphates, Potash and Mosaic Fertilizantes. The Phosphates segment sells phosphate-based crop nutrients and animal feed ingredients throughout North America and internationally. The Potash business segment owns and operates potash mines and production facilities in Canada and the United States, which produces potash-based crop nutrients, animal feed ingredients and industrial products, and is sold both in domestic and international. The Mosaic Fertilizantes Segment produces and sells phosphate- and potash-based crop nutrients, and animal feed ingredients, in Brazil. In addition to phosphate rock mines and chemical plants, this segment consists of sales offices, crop nutrient blending and bagging facilities, port terminals and warehouses in Brazil and Paraguay. This segment also serves as a distribution outlet for its Phosphates and Potash segments.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
