Nvidia to Return to China and Boost Production Capacity for 2026

Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst

NVDA-0.47%

Source: Fool

Updated: 1d ago

0mins

Source: Fool

Record Sales: Nvidia achieved a total revenue of $57 billion in 2023, with data center GPU sales reaching $51.2 billion, showcasing its strong demand in the cloud computing sector and further solidifying its market leadership.
Capacity Expansion Plans: To meet unprecedented demand, Nvidia is cutting production capacity for gaming chips to free up resources, which is expected to significantly enhance the production capacity of data center GPUs, thereby increasing profitability.
Return to China Market: Nvidia anticipates regaining the sales license for H20 chips in 2026, which could generate approximately $8 billion in revenue despite a 25% fee, significantly boosting future growth prospects.
Future Investment Outlook: Nvidia projects that global data center capital expenditures will rise to $3 trillion to $4 trillion by 2030, up from $600 billion in 2025, a trend that will provide strong support for Nvidia's stock price.

NVDA

$187.24+Infinity%1D

Analyst Views on NVDA

Wall Street analysts forecast NVDA stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NVDA is 255.63 USD with a low forecast of 185.00 USD and a high forecast of 352.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

40 Analyst Rating

38 Buy

1 Hold

1 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 188.120

Low

185.00

Averages

255.63

High

352.00

Current: 188.120

Low

185.00

Averages

255.63

High

352.00

Stifel

Buy

maintain

$250

2025-12-29

Reason

Stifel

Price Target

$250

2025-12-29

maintain

Buy

Reason

Stifel keeps a Buy rating on Nvidia with a $250 price target after Groq announced that it has entered into a non-exclusive licensing agreement with Nvidia for its inference technology. While Nvidia did not publicly comment, various reports have cited a $20B strategic transaction value for the licensing agreement and talent acquisition, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Stifel believes Groq's second generation language processing unit will be based on a Samsung 4nm process, which could ramp in conjunction with Nvidia's Vera Rubin rack systems. Integrating the system with Rubin CPX could further stretch Nvidia's artificial intelligence infrastructure leadership as inference workloads continue to evolve, contends the firm.

Citi

Atif Malik

Buy

maintain

$270

2025-12-29

Reason

Citi

Atif Malik

Price Target

$270

2025-12-29

maintain

Buy

Reason

Citi analyst Atif Malik views Nvidia's licensing deal with Groq as a "clear positive." The company is addressing competition from other inference architectures with a licensing deal that is more adequate than a full acquisition, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Citi believes Nvidia has worked around regulatory scrutiny given that Groq will still run as an independent company. It keeps a Buy rating on Nvidia with a $270 price target.

Truist

Buy

maintain

$275

2025-12-29

Reason

Truist

Price Target

$275

2025-12-29

maintain

Buy

Reason

Truist believes Nvidia's licensing agreement with Groq is intended to "fortify" its competitive positioning in inference versus tensor processing units. While the reported $20B cost is significant, it is small relative to Nvidia's cash position and cash flow generation, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Truist says Nvidia's development of Groq's technology could make its capabilities more appealing to high volume inference customers. The firm keeps a Buy rating on the shares with a $275 price target.

UBS

Buy

maintain

$235

2025-12-29

Reason

UBS

Price Target

$235

2025-12-29

maintain

Buy

Reason

UBS says Nvidia is licensing Groq's high speed inference technology at a "substantial" price tag of $20B. The licensing agreement could bolster Nvidia's ability to service high speed inference applications, the analyst tells investors in a research note. UBS remains bullish on Nvidia shares heading into 2026. The firm expects appreciation from here to be driven almost by higher earnings estimates. It has a Buy rating on Nvidia with a $235 price target.

About NVDA

NVIDIA Corporation is a full-stack computing infrastructure company. The Company is engaged in accelerated computing to help solve the challenging computational problems. The Company’s segments include Compute & Networking and Graphics. The Compute & Networking segment includes its Data Center accelerated computing platforms and artificial intelligence (AI) solutions and software; networking; automotive platforms and autonomous and electric vehicle solutions; Jetson for robotics and other embedded platforms, and DGX Cloud computing services. The Graphics segment includes GeForce GPUs for gaming and PCs, the GeForce NOW game streaming service and related infrastructure, and solutions for gaming platforms; Quadro/NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstation graphics; virtual GPU software for cloud-based visual and virtual computing; automotive platforms for infotainment systems, and Omniverse Enterprise software for building and operating industrial AI and digital twin applications.

About the author

Emily J. Thompson

Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.