Nomura Anticipates Slower Retail Revenue Growth for JD-SW, with Instant Retail Losses Expected to Decrease in 4Q25

Citi lowered its forecasts for JD-SW due to a steeper decline in home appliance sales indicated by November sales data from the National Bureau of Statistics, with expectations of further drops in December. This adjustment reflects weaker-than-expected retail sales for 4Q25 and a challenging comparison base anticipated in 1H26, despite the extension of the trade-in program. Citi also cut its adjusted net profit forecast for JD-SW, citing declines in revenue and gross margins, along with high sales and marketing expenses during the Double 11 promotion period. Despite reducing the target price from USD44 to USD37, Citi maintained a Buy rating, indicating that while the outlook is cautious, they still see potential in the stock.

The analyst rating from JPMorgan is based on a lowered revenue growth forecast for JD-SW (09618.HK) for 4Q25, which has been adjusted from a year-over-year increase of 6% to just 1%. This revision is attributed to weak home appliance sales observed in October and November, which are not expected to recover in December. JPMorgan estimates that sales of electronics and home appliances for JD-SW will decline by more than 10% year-over-year, leading them to doubt that JD Retail's revenue growth will surpass the overall industry growth in online physical goods sales.