<M Stanley Predicts Greater Drop in Q1 Sales for CN Property Developers>
Decline in Property Sales: Major Chinese property developers experienced a 32% year-on-year decline in contract sales in January, influenced by weak buyer confidence and increased inventory.
Future Sales Outlook: Morgan Stanley predicts further deterioration in sales for Chinese property developers in the first quarter of 2026 due to passive policy implementation and a high base effect.
Optimism for Quality Companies: Despite the overall market challenges, Morgan Stanley remains optimistic about companies with strong self-rescue capabilities, such as CHINA RES LAND and SEAZEN HOLDINGS.
Favorable View on C&D INTL GROUP: The report highlights C&D INTL GROUP as a consolidator in the residential market, noting its optimized land reserves could support profit margins and lead to earnings growth.
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<Daily Summary> HSI Ends at 26,847, Gaining 12 Points; HSTI Finishes at 5,366, Dropping 100 Points; TENCENT Falls More Than 3%; XINYI GLASS, TECHTRONIC IND, CHINA RES MIXC, WHARF REIC, MTR CORPORATION Reach New Peaks; Market Turnover Increases
Market Performance: The Hang Seng Index (HSI) rose slightly by 12 points to close at 26,847, while the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTI) and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) fell by 100 points and 4 points, respectively, with a total market turnover of $285.43 billion.
Active Heavyweights: Major stocks like Tencent, Xiaomi, and Meituan experienced declines, with Tencent dropping 4% to close at $558, while other heavyweights also saw significant short selling activity.
Notable Movers: Trip.com saw a significant drop of 6.1%, while Xinyi Glass and China Shenhua recorded gains of 5.9% and 5.7%, respectively, with several stocks hitting new highs.
Short Selling Trends: Various stocks experienced notable short selling, with Techtronic Industries and China Resources Mixc among those hitting new highs, while others like Kingdee International and Meitu faced substantial declines.
Midday Update: HSI Ends at 26,724, Down 109 Points; HSTI at 5,347, Down 119 Points; TENCENT Falls Over 3%; XINYI GLASS, TECHTRONIC IND, WHARF REIC, YANKUANG ENERGY, and CHINA EAST AIR Reach New Highs
Market Performance: The HSI dropped 109 points (0.4%) to 26,724, while the HSTI fell 119 points (2.2%) to 5,347, and the HSCEI decreased by 48 points (0.5%) to 9,004.
Active Heavyweights: Major stocks like TENCENT, XIAOMI, and MEITUAN saw declines, with TENCENT down 3.4% and XIAOMI down 2.6%, while BABA fell 0.9%.
Notable Movers: XINYI GLASS and CHINA SHENHUA experienced significant gains, with XINYI GLASS up 6.2% and CHINA SHENHUA up 5.4%, while TRIP.COM-S dropped 6.1%.
Short Selling Trends: High short selling ratios were observed in several stocks, including XIAOMI (20.155%) and MEITUAN (17.261%), indicating increased bearish sentiment among investors.
<M Stanley Predicts Greater Drop in Q1 Sales for CN Property Developers>
Decline in Property Sales: Major Chinese property developers experienced a 32% year-on-year decline in contract sales in January, influenced by weak buyer confidence and increased inventory.
Future Sales Outlook: Morgan Stanley predicts further deterioration in sales for Chinese property developers in the first quarter of 2026 due to passive policy implementation and a high base effect.
Optimism for Quality Companies: Despite the overall market challenges, Morgan Stanley remains optimistic about companies with strong self-rescue capabilities, such as CHINA RES LAND and SEAZEN HOLDINGS.
Favorable View on C&D INTL GROUP: The report highlights C&D INTL GROUP as a consolidator in the residential market, noting its optimized land reserves could support profit margins and lead to earnings growth.
CICC Anticipates Continued Pressure on CN Developers' 2025 Earnings; CHINA RES LAND, CHINA OVERSEAS, and C&D INTL GROUP Maintain Significant Profit Levels
Earnings Forecast: China's real estate sector is expected to see a significant decline in earnings for covered companies in 2025, with firms like CHINA RES LAND, CHINA OVERSEAS, and C&D INTL GROUP projected to experience a 15-20% year-on-year decrease.
Market Sentiment: Despite the anticipated earnings drop, CICC maintains a positive outlook on the real estate sector for 2023, suggesting potential for positive returns and good value in stock selection for 2026.
Company Performance: Some companies, including GREENTOWN CHINA and YUEXIU PROPERTY, may report marginal profits, while others like LONGFOR GROUP and URBAN CONS DEV could face slight losses, with a few firms expected to see steady core profits.
Stock Ratings: CICC has kept its ratings and target prices unchanged for various Chinese developers, highlighting stocks such as BINJIANG GP and SEAZEN HOLDINGS as outperformers in the market.
G Sachs: Liquidity Support Continues to Be Key Factor for Short-Term Share Price Recovery in China's Real Estate Market
Regulatory Changes: Recent reports indicate that Chinese developers have confirmed the suspension of the monthly 'Three Red Lines' indicator data submission, which was reportedly halted a year ago.
Market Reaction: The news has positively impacted the Chinese property sector, suggesting that liquidity injection is a key factor driving short-term share price recovery, despite ongoing challenges in housing demand.
Goldman Sachs Ratings: Goldman Sachs has maintained a 'Buy' rating for several Chinese real estate companies, including CHINA RES LAND and GREENTOWN CHINA, amidst the evolving market conditions.
Short Selling Data: The article provides short selling statistics for various Hong Kong stocks, highlighting significant short selling activity in companies like CHINA OVERSEAS and GREENTOWN CHINA.
<M Stanley Research>: Recent Growth in China's Property Market May Not Last; Home Sales and Prices Expected to Decline in the Coming Months
Market Sentiment and Predictions: Morgan Stanley attributes the recent rise in Chinese property developers to improved investor sentiment and increased residential sales, but warns that optimism may be misplaced as seasonal factors and policy effects could lead to a decline in sales and property prices.
Investment Ratings Overview: The report includes investment ratings and target prices for various Chinese property developers, indicating a mix of "Overweight," "Equalweight," and "Underweight" ratings based on their performance and market conditions.
Impact of Lunar New Year: The firm anticipates that the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday will negatively impact residential sales, further complicating the market recovery.
Policy Stimulus Likelihood: With the recent uptick in sales in Tier 1 cities, the chances of additional policy stimulus to support the property market are considered to be diminishing.
<Daily Summary> HSI Ends at 26,847, Gaining 12 Points; HSTI Finishes at 5,366, Dropping 100 Points; TENCENT Falls More Than 3%; XINYI GLASS, TECHTRONIC IND, CHINA RES MIXC, WHARF REIC, MTR CORPORATION Reach New Peaks; Market Turnover Increases
Market Performance: The Hang Seng Index (HSI) rose slightly by 12 points to close at 26,847, while the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTI) and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) fell by 100 points and 4 points, respectively, with a total market turnover of $285.43 billion.
Active Heavyweights: Major stocks like Tencent, Xiaomi, and Meituan experienced declines, with Tencent dropping 4% to close at $558, while other heavyweights also saw significant short selling activity.
Notable Movers: Trip.com saw a significant drop of 6.1%, while Xinyi Glass and China Shenhua recorded gains of 5.9% and 5.7%, respectively, with several stocks hitting new highs.
Short Selling Trends: Various stocks experienced notable short selling, with Techtronic Industries and China Resources Mixc among those hitting new highs, while others like Kingdee International and Meitu faced substantial declines.
Midday Update: HSI Ends at 26,724, Down 109 Points; HSTI at 5,347, Down 119 Points; TENCENT Falls Over 3%; XINYI GLASS, TECHTRONIC IND, WHARF REIC, YANKUANG ENERGY, and CHINA EAST AIR Reach New Highs
Market Performance: The HSI dropped 109 points (0.4%) to 26,724, while the HSTI fell 119 points (2.2%) to 5,347, and the HSCEI decreased by 48 points (0.5%) to 9,004.
Active Heavyweights: Major stocks like TENCENT, XIAOMI, and MEITUAN saw declines, with TENCENT down 3.4% and XIAOMI down 2.6%, while BABA fell 0.9%.
Notable Movers: XINYI GLASS and CHINA SHENHUA experienced significant gains, with XINYI GLASS up 6.2% and CHINA SHENHUA up 5.4%, while TRIP.COM-S dropped 6.1%.
Short Selling Trends: High short selling ratios were observed in several stocks, including XIAOMI (20.155%) and MEITUAN (17.261%), indicating increased bearish sentiment among investors.
<M Stanley Predicts Greater Drop in Q1 Sales for CN Property Developers>
Decline in Property Sales: Major Chinese property developers experienced a 32% year-on-year decline in contract sales in January, influenced by weak buyer confidence and increased inventory.
Future Sales Outlook: Morgan Stanley predicts further deterioration in sales for Chinese property developers in the first quarter of 2026 due to passive policy implementation and a high base effect.
Optimism for Quality Companies: Despite the overall market challenges, Morgan Stanley remains optimistic about companies with strong self-rescue capabilities, such as CHINA RES LAND and SEAZEN HOLDINGS.
Favorable View on C&D INTL GROUP: The report highlights C&D INTL GROUP as a consolidator in the residential market, noting its optimized land reserves could support profit margins and lead to earnings growth.
CICC Anticipates Continued Pressure on CN Developers' 2025 Earnings; CHINA RES LAND, CHINA OVERSEAS, and C&D INTL GROUP Maintain Significant Profit Levels
Earnings Forecast: China's real estate sector is expected to see a significant decline in earnings for covered companies in 2025, with firms like CHINA RES LAND, CHINA OVERSEAS, and C&D INTL GROUP projected to experience a 15-20% year-on-year decrease.
Market Sentiment: Despite the anticipated earnings drop, CICC maintains a positive outlook on the real estate sector for 2023, suggesting potential for positive returns and good value in stock selection for 2026.
Company Performance: Some companies, including GREENTOWN CHINA and YUEXIU PROPERTY, may report marginal profits, while others like LONGFOR GROUP and URBAN CONS DEV could face slight losses, with a few firms expected to see steady core profits.
Stock Ratings: CICC has kept its ratings and target prices unchanged for various Chinese developers, highlighting stocks such as BINJIANG GP and SEAZEN HOLDINGS as outperformers in the market.
G Sachs: Liquidity Support Continues to Be Key Factor for Short-Term Share Price Recovery in China's Real Estate Market
Regulatory Changes: Recent reports indicate that Chinese developers have confirmed the suspension of the monthly 'Three Red Lines' indicator data submission, which was reportedly halted a year ago.
Market Reaction: The news has positively impacted the Chinese property sector, suggesting that liquidity injection is a key factor driving short-term share price recovery, despite ongoing challenges in housing demand.
Goldman Sachs Ratings: Goldman Sachs has maintained a 'Buy' rating for several Chinese real estate companies, including CHINA RES LAND and GREENTOWN CHINA, amidst the evolving market conditions.
Short Selling Data: The article provides short selling statistics for various Hong Kong stocks, highlighting significant short selling activity in companies like CHINA OVERSEAS and GREENTOWN CHINA.
<M Stanley Research>: Recent Growth in China's Property Market May Not Last; Home Sales and Prices Expected to Decline in the Coming Months
Market Sentiment and Predictions: Morgan Stanley attributes the recent rise in Chinese property developers to improved investor sentiment and increased residential sales, but warns that optimism may be misplaced as seasonal factors and policy effects could lead to a decline in sales and property prices.
Investment Ratings Overview: The report includes investment ratings and target prices for various Chinese property developers, indicating a mix of "Overweight," "Equalweight," and "Underweight" ratings based on their performance and market conditions.
Impact of Lunar New Year: The firm anticipates that the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday will negatively impact residential sales, further complicating the market recovery.
Policy Stimulus Likelihood: With the recent uptick in sales in Tier 1 cities, the chances of additional policy stimulus to support the property market are considered to be diminishing.
