Current Market Trends: In December 2025, second-hand home prices in major Chinese cities continued to decline month-over-month, though at a slower rate, while the year-over-year drop in sales also eased, according to a Morgan Stanley report.
Future Outlook: Morgan Stanley predicts that China's housing policies will remain subdued in the near term, with a high volume of second-hand listings likely to continue affecting buyer sentiment and putting pressure on home sales and prices.
Investment Preferences: The firm favors strong mall operators like CHINA RES LAND and SEAZEN HOLDINGS, which are expected to benefit from the emphasis on consumption in the 15th Five-Year Plan and supportive REIT policies.
Stock Performance Differentiation: Despite a cautious outlook on the real estate market recovery, Morgan Stanley anticipates a divergence in stock performance between the overall industry and quality companies with strong self-rescue capabilities, such as C&D INTL GROUP and CHINA OVERSEAS.
Wall Street analysts forecast 00688 stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for 00688 is USD with a low forecast of USD and a high forecast of USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast 00688 stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for 00688 is USD with a low forecast of USD and a high forecast of USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Current: 13.140
Low
Averages
High
Current: 13.140
Low
Averages
High
BofA Securities
BofA Securities
maintain
$price
Al Analysis
2026-01-08
Reason
BofA Securities
BofA Securities
Price Target
$price
Al Analysis
2026-01-08
maintain
Reason
BofA Securities maintains a non-consensus positive view on the Chinese real estate industry due to expectations of more proactive policy-making by authorities, which could create contrarian investment opportunities amid low investor positioning and mounting pressure. The firm favors companies with strong execution capabilities and anticipates that certain firms will benefit from potential consumer stimulus measures. However, it has lowered earnings forecasts and target prices for many developers due to downbeat fundamental prospects, leading to an Underperform rating for some companies.
JPMorgan
maintain
2025-12-11
Reason
JPMorgan
Price Target
2025-12-11
maintain
Reason
The analyst rating from JPMorgan is influenced by the potential for the Chinese government to provide mortgage subsidies, which could amount to RMB400 billion. However, the report emphasizes that while this policy direction is possible, it may not be sufficient to reverse the current situation in the property market unless buyer confidence in stable housing prices is established. The report also notes that the RMB400 billion figure represents only about 5% of annual new residential sales and highlights the historical inaccuracy of market rumors, which have only a 40% accuracy rate. Additionally, the mixed reactions in stock price movements—where CHINA VANKE saw a significant surge while major state-owned enterprises experienced minimal increases—suggest that investor enthusiasm regarding the policy is limited. Consequently, JPMorgan maintains its top picks in the sector, indicating a cautious outlook despite the potential for policy-driven rallies.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for 00688
Unlock Now
BofA Securities
BofA Securities
Buy
downgrade
$16
2025-10-27
Reason
BofA Securities
BofA Securities
Price Target
$16
2025-10-27
downgrade
Buy
Reason
The analyst rating for CHINA OVERSEAS (00688.HK) is a Buy, as reaffirmed by BofA Securities despite the company's soft 3Q25 results. The reasons for this rating include:
1. Anticipated Earnings Rebound: BofA Securities forecasts a rebound in underlying 4Q25 earnings, suggesting that the current weak performance may be temporary.
2. Young Land Bank: The company has the youngest land bank in the industry, with only 27% of its land purchased before 2022. This positions it to potentially recover with better margins compared to peers as the market improves.
3. Valuation Appeal: The stock is considered appealing at a valuation of 8x 2027E P/E, making it one of the top picks in the sector.
4. Project Completion Timing: The weak earnings in 3Q25 are attributed to project completion timing, indicating that future results may improve as projects are completed.
Overall, while there are challenges such as weakening property prices and potential inventory impairment, the outlook for recovery and the company's strategic position support the Buy rating.
Nomura
Neutral
maintain
2025-08-28
Reason
Nomura
Price Target
2025-08-28
maintain
Neutral
Reason
The analyst rating for CHINA OVERSEAS (00688.HK) is reiterated as Neutral by Nomura due to the company's flagging results for 1H25, which showed a decline in revenue and core net profit. Despite a potential recovery in gross profit margin (GPM) in the mid-term, the broker prefers CHINA RES LAND (01109.HK) over CHINA OVERSEAS. Nomura has kept its sales and earnings forecasts unchanged while raising the target price from HKD12.2 to HKD14.6, indicating a cautious outlook despite some positive signs for future GPM improvement.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
