Lamb Weston Sets FY26 Adjusted EBITDA Guidance at $1B-$1.2B
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 5d ago
0mins
Should l Buy LW?
Backs FY26 adjusted EBITDA view $1B-$1.2B. The company said, "The company reiterates its most recent guidance included in its fiscal year 2026 second quarter earnings release on December 19, 2025. Lamb Weston will release third quarter earnings on April 1, 2026."
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Analyst Views on LW
Wall Street analysts forecast LW stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for LW is 54.44 USD with a low forecast of 48.00 USD and a high forecast of 65.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
9 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
6 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 50.120
Low
48.00
Averages
54.44
High
65.00
Current: 50.120
Low
48.00
Averages
54.44
High
65.00
About LW
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. is a global producer, distributor, and marketer of value-added frozen potato products. The Company is a supplier of frozen potato, sweet potato, appetizer and vegetable products to restaurants and retailers around the globe. The Company’s segments include North America and International. The Company’s frozen potato products are sold in North America and international markets generally to North American-based restaurant chains and international customers, comprised of global and regional quick service and full-service restaurant chains, foodservice distributors, and retailers. Its product portfolio includes frozen potatoes and appetizers sold under the Lamb Weston brand, as well as many customer labels. The Company’s product categories include classic fries, extra crispy fries, sweet potatoes, and other products. Its recipes include appetizers, desserts, dips, sauces and seasonings, entree, salad, side dishes, and topped and loaded.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Lamb Weston Faces Challenges in Rebuilding Credibility
- Performance Warning: Lamb Weston faced a significant setback in fiscal 2024 due to a failed ERP implementation in North America, resulting in an estimated $135 million sales loss and a $330 million cut in full-year revenue guidance, highlighting severe execution issues that damaged customer trust.
- Capital Expenditure Pressure: The company committed nearly $2 billion in capital expenditures between 2020 and 2024 for capacity expansion, but with demand normalizing, excess capacity has led to fragile pricing discipline, further compressing profit margins amid intensified competition.
- Cash Flow Rebuilding Challenges: Under a reasonable EBITDA scenario, Lamb Weston could rebuild free cash flow to approximately $700-$800 million annually; however, under conservative estimates, cash flow may fall to $500-$600 million, indicating vulnerabilities in its financial health.
- Declining Return on Investment: The company's return on invested capital (ROIC) dropped from 15.9% in fiscal 2023 to 11.1% in fiscal 2025, reflecting a failure to achieve expected profitability during its expansion phase, with future returns hinging on improved execution and capital allocation discipline.
See More
Lamb Weston Grants Inducement Awards to New Executive Chair
- Award Grant: On February 6, 2026, Lamb Weston Holdings granted 317,647 restricted stock units and options covering 1,117,346 shares to new Executive Chair Jan Craps as a significant inducement for his hiring, highlighting the company's commitment to attracting top executive talent.
- Personal Investment Match: The award includes 300,000 restricted stock units matched one-for-one with Craps' personal investment in Lamb Weston shares, reflecting the company's emphasis on aligning executive and shareholder interests to enhance management accountability.
- Option Details: The granted options consist of 750,000 shares with an exercise price of $50.12, among others, providing a potential incentive mechanism for future shareholder value creation, with options set to expire in 2029.
- Compliance Statement: The awards were granted in reliance on the NYSE's employment inducement exemption under Rule 303A.08, ensuring the company's transparency and compliance responsibilities, thereby enhancing investor confidence.
See More
Lamb Weston Grants Inducement Awards to New Executive Chair
- Award Grant: On February 6, 2026, Lamb Weston Holdings granted 317,647 restricted stock units and options covering 1,117,346 shares to Jan Craps as a significant inducement for his hiring as Executive Chair, reflecting the company's commitment to its leadership.
- Investment Matching: The award includes 300,000 restricted stock units granted as a one-for-one match on Craps' personal investment, indicating the company's strategy to align executive interests with shareholder value, thereby enhancing accountability and motivation.
- Options Details: The stock options consist of 750,000 shares with an exercise price of $50.12, along with options at varying prices, showcasing the company's flexibility and diversity in executive incentives aimed at attracting and retaining top talent.
- Compliance Statement: The grant of these awards is in reliance on the employment inducement exemption under NYSE Rule 303A.08, ensuring the company's commitment to transparency and compliance, which further bolsters investor confidence.
See More
Lamb Weston Appoints New Executives to Drive Growth
- Executive Appointments: Lamb Weston has appointed Jan Craps as Executive Chair, effective February 6, 2026, bringing over 20 years of international market experience from Anheuser-Busch InBev, aiming to enhance company performance through leadership and international market execution.
- Financial Leadership Change: James D. Gray will become Chief Financial Officer on April 2, 2026, succeeding Bernadette Madarieta, who will provide advisory support during the transition; Gray's 12 years as CFO at Ingredion is expected to strengthen continuity and efficiency in financial functions.
- Strategic Focus: The newly appointed executives will work alongside current CEO Mike Smith to drive the
See More
Douglas Lane Sells 65,461 Shares of Lamb Weston for $3.85 Million
- Share Sale Details: Douglas Lane sold 65,461 shares of Lamb Weston in Q4 for approximately $3.85 million, indicating a strategic move towards risk management amid market pressures.
- Holding Value Decline: At the end of the quarter, the fund held 1,213,884 shares of Lamb Weston valued at $50.85 million, down $23.45 million from the previous quarter, reflecting diminished market confidence.
- Financial Performance Overview: Lamb Weston reported a 1% year-over-year increase in net sales to $1.62 billion for the latest quarter, with net income rebounding to $62.1 million from a loss of $36.1 million a year earlier, suggesting operational stabilization.
- Market Performance Analysis: Despite improved financial metrics, the stock price has fallen approximately 28% over the past year, significantly underperforming the S&P 500, highlighting concerns over pricing pressures and customer concessions.
See More
Douglas Lane Sells 65,461 Shares of Lamb Weston for Estimated $3.85 Million
- Transaction Overview: Douglas Lane sold 65,461 shares of Lamb Weston in Q4 for an estimated $3.85 million, highlighting ongoing market pressure on the stock.
- Position Change: As of quarter-end, Lane held 1,213,884 shares valued at $50.85 million, a decrease of $23.45 million from the previous quarter, reflecting the dual impact of trading activity and price movements.
- Performance Recovery: Lamb Weston’s latest earnings report indicates a 1% year-over-year increase in Q2 net sales to $1.62 billion, with net income swinging from a loss of $36.1 million to a profit of $62.1 million, suggesting operational stabilization.
- Market Performance: Despite the improvement in company performance, Lamb Weston’s stock price has dropped approximately 28% over the past year, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 by 41 percentage points, reflecting market concerns over pricing pressures and customer concessions.
See More
Lamb Weston Faces Challenges in Rebuilding Credibility
- Performance Warning: Lamb Weston faced a significant setback in fiscal 2024 due to a failed ERP implementation in North America, resulting in an estimated $135 million sales loss and a $330 million cut in full-year revenue guidance, highlighting severe execution issues that damaged customer trust.
- Capital Expenditure Pressure: The company committed nearly $2 billion in capital expenditures between 2020 and 2024 for capacity expansion, but with demand normalizing, excess capacity has led to fragile pricing discipline, further compressing profit margins amid intensified competition.
- Cash Flow Rebuilding Challenges: Under a reasonable EBITDA scenario, Lamb Weston could rebuild free cash flow to approximately $700-$800 million annually; however, under conservative estimates, cash flow may fall to $500-$600 million, indicating vulnerabilities in its financial health.
- Declining Return on Investment: The company's return on invested capital (ROIC) dropped from 15.9% in fiscal 2023 to 11.1% in fiscal 2025, reflecting a failure to achieve expected profitability during its expansion phase, with future returns hinging on improved execution and capital allocation discipline.
See More
Lamb Weston Grants Inducement Awards to New Executive Chair
- Award Grant: On February 6, 2026, Lamb Weston Holdings granted 317,647 restricted stock units and options covering 1,117,346 shares to new Executive Chair Jan Craps as a significant inducement for his hiring, highlighting the company's commitment to attracting top executive talent.
- Personal Investment Match: The award includes 300,000 restricted stock units matched one-for-one with Craps' personal investment in Lamb Weston shares, reflecting the company's emphasis on aligning executive and shareholder interests to enhance management accountability.
- Option Details: The granted options consist of 750,000 shares with an exercise price of $50.12, among others, providing a potential incentive mechanism for future shareholder value creation, with options set to expire in 2029.
- Compliance Statement: The awards were granted in reliance on the NYSE's employment inducement exemption under Rule 303A.08, ensuring the company's transparency and compliance responsibilities, thereby enhancing investor confidence.
See More
Lamb Weston Grants Inducement Awards to New Executive Chair
- Award Grant: On February 6, 2026, Lamb Weston Holdings granted 317,647 restricted stock units and options covering 1,117,346 shares to Jan Craps as a significant inducement for his hiring as Executive Chair, reflecting the company's commitment to its leadership.
- Investment Matching: The award includes 300,000 restricted stock units granted as a one-for-one match on Craps' personal investment, indicating the company's strategy to align executive interests with shareholder value, thereby enhancing accountability and motivation.
- Options Details: The stock options consist of 750,000 shares with an exercise price of $50.12, along with options at varying prices, showcasing the company's flexibility and diversity in executive incentives aimed at attracting and retaining top talent.
- Compliance Statement: The grant of these awards is in reliance on the employment inducement exemption under NYSE Rule 303A.08, ensuring the company's commitment to transparency and compliance, which further bolsters investor confidence.
See More
Lamb Weston Appoints New Executives to Drive Growth
- Executive Appointments: Lamb Weston has appointed Jan Craps as Executive Chair, effective February 6, 2026, bringing over 20 years of international market experience from Anheuser-Busch InBev, aiming to enhance company performance through leadership and international market execution.
- Financial Leadership Change: James D. Gray will become Chief Financial Officer on April 2, 2026, succeeding Bernadette Madarieta, who will provide advisory support during the transition; Gray's 12 years as CFO at Ingredion is expected to strengthen continuity and efficiency in financial functions.
- Strategic Focus: The newly appointed executives will work alongside current CEO Mike Smith to drive the
See More
Douglas Lane Sells 65,461 Shares of Lamb Weston for $3.85 Million
- Share Sale Details: Douglas Lane sold 65,461 shares of Lamb Weston in Q4 for approximately $3.85 million, indicating a strategic move towards risk management amid market pressures.
- Holding Value Decline: At the end of the quarter, the fund held 1,213,884 shares of Lamb Weston valued at $50.85 million, down $23.45 million from the previous quarter, reflecting diminished market confidence.
- Financial Performance Overview: Lamb Weston reported a 1% year-over-year increase in net sales to $1.62 billion for the latest quarter, with net income rebounding to $62.1 million from a loss of $36.1 million a year earlier, suggesting operational stabilization.
- Market Performance Analysis: Despite improved financial metrics, the stock price has fallen approximately 28% over the past year, significantly underperforming the S&P 500, highlighting concerns over pricing pressures and customer concessions.
See More
Douglas Lane Sells 65,461 Shares of Lamb Weston for Estimated $3.85 Million
- Transaction Overview: Douglas Lane sold 65,461 shares of Lamb Weston in Q4 for an estimated $3.85 million, highlighting ongoing market pressure on the stock.
- Position Change: As of quarter-end, Lane held 1,213,884 shares valued at $50.85 million, a decrease of $23.45 million from the previous quarter, reflecting the dual impact of trading activity and price movements.
- Performance Recovery: Lamb Weston’s latest earnings report indicates a 1% year-over-year increase in Q2 net sales to $1.62 billion, with net income swinging from a loss of $36.1 million to a profit of $62.1 million, suggesting operational stabilization.
- Market Performance: Despite the improvement in company performance, Lamb Weston’s stock price has dropped approximately 28% over the past year, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 by 41 percentage points, reflecting market concerns over pricing pressures and customer concessions.
See More
