JPM: AIA (01299.HK) Surpasses Market Performance in the Last Year; Possible Earnings Forecast Increase Could Drive Valuation Growth

The analyst rating for AIA (01299.HK) is maintained at "Overweight" due to several key reasons highlighted in the JPMorgan report: 1. Strong Performance: AIA has outperformed the market over the past 12 months, with a total increase of 63%, significantly surpassing the HSI's rise of approximately 37%. 2. Beneficiary of Weakening USD: AIA is identified as a major beneficiary of the weakening US dollar, which could positively impact its financial performance. 3. Potential for Increased Business Growth Forecasts: There is an expectation that the market may raise its future business growth forecasts for AIA, which could serve as a catalyst for further valuation increases. 4. Positive Market Outlook: Anticipation of better performance in key markets such as Hong Kong, mainland China, and Thailand, along with potential data disclosures from a joint venture in India, supports upgrades to AIA's new business value growth forecasts for FY2026/2027. 5. Target Price Increase: JPMorgan has raised its target price for AIA to $115, reflecting confidence in the company's growth prospects. These factors collectively contribute to the positive analyst rating and outlook for AIA.