Invesco Mortgage Capital (IVR) Estimates Book Value Up to $9.30
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 15 2026
0mins
Source: seekingalpha
- Book Value Growth: As of January 12, 2026, Invesco Mortgage Capital estimates its common share book value between $8.94 and $9.30, reflecting a 6.3% to 10.6% increase from September 30, 2025, indicating robust asset performance and enhanced market confidence.
- Market Discount Analysis: At the market close on January 12, the stock was valued at $8.84, representing a 4.9% discount to the high end of the book value range, while the low end showed a 1.1% premium, reflecting varying market expectations regarding the company's future performance.
- Debt-to-Equity Ratio Changes: Invesco's estimated economic debt-to-equity ratio stood at 6.9x as of January 12, up from 6.7x on September 30, 2025, indicating adjustments in the company's financing structure and risk management strategies.
- Slight Stock Increase: Invesco Mortgage Capital's stock rose 0.2% in after-hours trading, demonstrating investor confidence in the company's outlook despite market fluctuations.
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Analyst Views on IVR
Wall Street analysts forecast IVR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for IVR is 9.00 USD with a low forecast of 9.00 USD and a high forecast of 9.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Analyst Rating
1 Buy
0 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 8.950
Low
9.00
Averages
9.00
High
9.00
Current: 8.950
Low
9.00
Averages
9.00
High
9.00
About IVR
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. is a real estate investment trust that focuses on investing in, financing and managing mortgage-backed securities and other mortgage-related assets. Its objective is to provide attractive risk-adjusted returns to its stockholders, primarily through dividends and secondarily through capital appreciation. It invests in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) that are guaranteed by a United States government agency, such as the Government National Mortgage Association (Ginnie Mae), or a federally chartered corporation, such as the Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae) or the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac) (Agency RMBS). It also invests in commercial mortgage-backed securities and RMBS that are not guaranteed by a U.S. government agency or a federally chartered corporation. It conducts its business through its subsidiary, IAS Operating Partnership L.P., and is externally managed and advised by Invesco Advisers, Inc.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Invesco Mortgage Capital Set to Release Q4 Earnings on January 29
- Earnings Announcement: Invesco Mortgage Capital is set to announce its Q4 2023 earnings on January 29 after market close, with consensus estimates predicting an EPS of $0.56 and revenue of $47.99 million, indicating investor interest in the company's financial performance.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past two years, IVR has beaten EPS estimates 63% of the time but has not surpassed revenue estimates, reflecting volatility in the company's profitability.
- Expectation Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen three upward revisions and one downward revision, while revenue estimates have had one upward revision with no downward adjustments, suggesting increased market confidence in the company's future performance.
- Asset Value Growth: Invesco Mortgage Capital's book value has increased by at least 6% since Q3, with a 4.5% rise amid easing policies, providing a positive outlook for the company's prospects in the agency mortgage sector.
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Invesco Mortgage Capital Reports Q4 2025 Earnings
- Earnings Performance: Invesco Mortgage Capital reported Q4 2025 earnings per share of $0.56, meeting analyst expectations but down from $0.58 a year earlier, indicating increased market competition pressures.
- Net Interest Income: Effective net interest income rose slightly to $47.7 million in Q4, above last year's $46.8 million but below the expected $48.0 million, reflecting challenges in the interest rate environment.
- Expense Control: Total expenses decreased to $4.57 million, down from $4.78 million in Q4 2024, indicating some success in cost management, which helps enhance profitability.
- Asset Value Growth: As of December 31, 2025, book value per share increased to $8.72, up from $8.41 on September 30, 2025, demonstrating the robustness of the company's assets and a recovery in market confidence.
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