Intercontinental Exchange Surpasses Expectations with Q4 Earnings
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1h ago
0mins
Should l Buy ICE?
Source: seekingalpha
- Strong Earnings Report: Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) reported a Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.71, exceeding the analyst estimate of $1.67, indicating robust performance in the market.
- Revenue Growth: The Q4 net revenue reached $2.50 billion, surpassing the consensus estimate of $2.48 billion and increasing from $2.41 billion in Q3 2025, demonstrating sustained growth across business segments.
- Expense Guidance: ICE projects FY26 adjusted operating expenses between $4.075 billion and $4.140 billion, slightly above the Visible Alpha estimate, reflecting a cautious approach to future spending.
- Capital Expenditure Plans: The company plans to allocate $740 million to $790 million for capital expenditures in FY26, highlighting its ongoing investment in technology and infrastructure to support future business expansion.
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Analyst Views on ICE
Wall Street analysts forecast ICE stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ICE is 191.60 USD with a low forecast of 174.00 USD and a high forecast of 223.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
10 Analyst Rating
9 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 164.850
Low
174.00
Averages
191.60
High
223.00
Current: 164.850
Low
174.00
Averages
191.60
High
223.00
About ICE
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. provides financial technology and data services across major asset classes, helping its customers access workflow tools that increase transparency and efficiency. Its Exchanges segment operates regulated marketplace technology for the listing, trading and clearing of an array of derivatives contracts and financial securities as well as data and connectivity services related to its exchanges and clearing houses. Its Fixed Income and Data Services segment provides fixed income pricing, reference data, indices, analytics and execution services as well as global credit default swaps (CDS), clearing and multi-asset class data delivery technology. Its Mortgage Technology segment provides a technology platform that offers customers comprehensive, digital workflow tools that aim to address inefficiencies and mitigate risks that exist in the United States residential mortgage market life cycle, from application through closing, servicing and the secondary market.
About the author

Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
- Earnings Announcement Date: Intercontinental Exchange is set to release its Q4 2023 earnings report on February 5th before market open, with consensus EPS estimate at $1.67, reflecting a 9.9% year-over-year growth, indicating stable profitability.
- Revenue Expectations Decline: Despite the rise in EPS expectations, the revenue forecast stands at $2.48 billion, representing an 18.2% year-over-year decline, highlighting challenges in the market environment and potential decreases in trading volumes.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past two years, ICE has surpassed EPS estimates 88% of the time and revenue estimates 50% of the time, demonstrating the company's reliability in earnings forecasts and adaptability to market conditions.
- Estimate Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen four upward revisions and seven downward adjustments, while revenue estimates experienced three upward and four downward revisions, reflecting analyst divergence on the company's future performance and market uncertainty.
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- Strong Earnings Report: Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) reported a Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.71, exceeding the analyst estimate of $1.67, indicating robust performance in the market.
- Revenue Growth: The Q4 net revenue reached $2.50 billion, surpassing the consensus estimate of $2.48 billion and increasing from $2.41 billion in Q3 2025, demonstrating sustained growth across business segments.
- Expense Guidance: ICE projects FY26 adjusted operating expenses between $4.075 billion and $4.140 billion, slightly above the Visible Alpha estimate, reflecting a cautious approach to future spending.
- Capital Expenditure Plans: The company plans to allocate $740 million to $790 million for capital expenditures in FY26, highlighting its ongoing investment in technology and infrastructure to support future business expansion.
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- Earnings Call Scheduled: Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) will hold a conference call on February 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET to discuss its Q4 2025 earnings results, aiming to provide investors and analysts with detailed insights into financial performance and future outlook.
- Webcast Access: Investors can access the live webcast by visiting https://ir.theice.com/events-and-presentations/, ensuring that global investors can receive real-time updates on the company's latest developments.
- Dial-in Participation: Participants can join the call by dialing 1-833-470-1428 for the US or 1-404-975-4839 for international access, using the Elite Entry Number 745229 to facilitate smooth entry into the conference, enhancing the overall participation experience.
- Transparency Commitment: This earnings call not only provides a direct communication channel between investors and management but also reflects ICE's commitment to transparency, aiming to bolster market confidence and strengthen investor relations.
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- Profit Growth: Intercontinental Exchange reported a net income of $862 million for Q4, translating to $1.49 per share, which marks a significant increase from $709 million and $1.21 per share a year earlier, indicating strong trading volumes in a volatile market.
- Volume Increase: The heightened market volatility has led traders to hedge their positions more aggressively, resulting in increased trading volumes that drive revenue growth, showcasing the company's adaptability in uncertain market conditions.
- Energy Trading Revenue: Revenue from energy trading rose by 15% to $548 million, elevating the exchange's primary revenue segment to $1.36 billion, further solidifying its market leadership position.
- Market Environment Impact: The Trump administration's trade policies and geopolitical tensions have intensified market uncertainty, while the Federal Reserve's interest rate path has fueled speculation, indicating the company's ability to achieve profit growth even in a complex economic landscape.
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- Dividend Increase: Intercontinental Exchange has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.52 per share, representing an 8.3% increase from the previous $0.48, indicating the company's ongoing profitability and commitment to shareholder returns.
- Stable Yield: The forward yield of 1.26% provides investors with a reliable cash flow, enhancing the company's attractiveness in the current market environment.
- Payment Schedule: The dividend will be payable on March 31, with a record date of March 17 and an ex-dividend date also on March 17, ensuring shareholders receive their earnings promptly.
- Market Reaction: This dividend increase is likely to boost investor confidence and further drive the company's stock price upward, reflecting Intercontinental Exchange's positive outlook on future financial performance.
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- Strong Earnings Report: Intercontinental Exchange reported a Q4 2025 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.71, beating expectations by $0.04, which reflects the company's ongoing profitability enhancement and strengthens market confidence.
- Revenue Growth: The fourth-quarter revenue reached $3.14 billion, a 3.6% year-over-year increase, exceeding market expectations by $660 million, indicating robust growth and strong market demand in the financial services sector.
- Cash Flow Performance: Operating cash flow for 2025 was $4.7 billion, with adjusted free cash flow at $4.2 billion, showcasing the company's strong cash generation capabilities, providing a solid foundation for future investments and shareholder returns.
- Shareholder Returns: In Q4 2025, Intercontinental Exchange repurchased $1.3 billion in common stock and paid over $1.1 billion in dividends, demonstrating the company's commitment to shareholders and its ongoing capital management strategy.
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