Recent Stock Trends: Dollar General's shares have increased by approximately 45% in 2025, yet they remain over 55% lower than their peak in 2022. This indicates a significant recovery potential for long-term investors.
Earnings Update: The retailer's second-quarter earnings report highlights a strong turnaround, with sales reaching $10.7 billion, a 5.1% increase year-over-year.
Business Model and Market Position
Store Strategy: Dollar General focuses on serving less affluent customers by operating small stores in rural areas, making it more accessible than larger competitors.
Store Count and Expansion Plans: The company operates over 20,700 stores across the U.S. and Mexico and plans to complete over 4,800 real estate projects in fiscal year 2025, including the opening of up to 575 new stores in the U.S. and 15 in Mexico.
Financial Highlights
Sales and Same-Store Sales Growth: Same-store sales rose by 2.8%, driven by increased customer traffic and higher spending per visit. This reflects a positive trend in customer engagement.
Earnings Performance: Earnings per share for the quarter were $1.86, marking a 9% increase from the previous year and surpassing analyst expectations by about 18%.
Future Outlook
Updated Guidance: Management has revised its full-year sales growth forecast from 3.7%-4.7% to 4.3%-4.8%, indicating confidence in continued growth. The same-store sales guidance has also been adjusted positively.
Investment Considerations: Despite the recent stock price increase, Dollar General's stock remains below its historical highs, suggesting potential for further recovery. The company also offers a historically high dividend yield of 2.1%, making it an attractive option for long-term investors.
DG
$134.51+Infinity%1D
Analyst Views on DG
Wall Street analysts forecast DG stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for DG is 123.50 USD with a low forecast of 112.00 USD and a high forecast of 139.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
10 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast DG stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for DG is 123.50 USD with a low forecast of 112.00 USD and a high forecast of 139.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Buy
6 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 132.930
Low
112.00
Averages
123.50
High
139.00
Current: 132.930
Low
112.00
Averages
123.50
High
139.00
JPMorgan
Matthew Boss
Neutral -> Overweight
upgrade
$128 -> $166
2025-12-15
New
Reason
JPMorgan
Matthew Boss
Price Target
$128 -> $166
2025-12-15
New
upgrade
Neutral -> Overweight
Reason
JPMorgan analyst Matthew Boss upgraded Dollar General to Overweight from Neutral with a price target of $166, up from $128. The firm sees upside to company's 2%-3% same-store-sales growth outlook for fiscal 2026 given its exposure to the employed low-income consumer and higher level of middle income consumers trading down. Following a meeting with management, JPMorgan says Dollar General is "back on offense." The stock in premarket trading is up 3%, or $3.79, to $137.00.
JPMorgan
Neutral -> Overweight
upgrade
$128 -> $166
2025-12-15
New
Reason
JPMorgan
Price Target
$128 -> $166
2025-12-15
New
upgrade
Neutral -> Overweight
Reason
JPMorgan upgraded Dollar General to Overweight from Neutral with a price target of $166, up from $128. Following a meeting with management, the firm says Dollar General is "back on offense."
BNPP
Outperform -> Neutral
downgrade
€131
2025-12-10
Reason
BNPP
Price Target
€131
2025-12-10
downgrade
Outperform -> Neutral
Reason
BNPP downgraded Vinci to Neutral from Outperform with a EUR 131 price target. The firm adjusted ratings in the European transport and infrastructure group as part of its 2026 outlook.
Guggenheim
Buy
upgrade
$125 -> $140
2025-12-08
Reason
Guggenheim
Price Target
$125 -> $140
2025-12-08
upgrade
Buy
Reason
Guggenheim raised the firm's price target on Dollar General to $140 from $125 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm, which is raising its "above-consensus" 2025 and 2026 EPS estimates, argues that while the multiple has expanded by one turn in the past two weeks it is "still undemanding."
About DG
Dollar General Corporation is a discount retailer. The Company offers merchandise, including consumable items, seasonal items, home products and apparel. Its merchandise includes brands from manufacturers, as well as its own private brand selections with prices at discounts to brands. Its consumables category includes paper and cleaning products, packaged food, perishables, snacks, health and beauty, pet, and tobacco products. Its seasonal products include holiday items, toys, batteries, small electronics, greeting cards, stationery, prepaid phones and accessories, gardening supplies, hardware, automotive and home office supplies. Its home products include kitchen supplies, cookware, small appliances, light bulbs, storage containers, frames, candles, craft supplies and kitchen, bed and bath soft goods. The Company’s apparel products include basic items for infants, toddlers, girls, boys, women and men, as well as socks, underwear, disposable diapers, shoes and accessories.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
