Earnings Performance: Dollar General reported second-quarter earnings for 2025, surpassing analyst expectations with earnings of $1.86 per share, a 9% increase from the same quarter in 2024, and beating consensus estimates by approximately 18%.
Sales Growth: The company achieved a 5.1% year-over-year increase in sales, totaling $10.7 billion. Notably, same-store sales rose by 2.8%, driven by increased customer traffic and higher spending per visit.
Business Strategy and Market Position
Target Market: Dollar General focuses on serving less affluent customers by operating smaller stores in rural areas, making it more convenient for customers compared to larger competitors.
Store Expansion Plans: The retailer operates over 20,700 stores across the U.S. and Mexico and plans to complete over 4,800 real estate projects in fiscal year 2025, including the addition of up to 575 new stores in the U.S. and 15 in Mexico.
Financial Outlook and Stock Performance
Guidance Update: Management raised its full-year sales growth forecast from 3.7%-4.7% to 4.3%-4.8%, indicating a positive outlook for the company's turnaround efforts.
Stock Recovery: Despite a 45% increase in stock price in 2025, shares remain over 55% lower than their peak in 2022, suggesting potential for further recovery in the long term.
Investment Considerations
Dividend Yield: Dollar General offers a historically high dividend yield of 2.1%, making it an attractive option for long-term investors.
Analyst Recommendations: While the company shows promise, it was not included in the Motley Fool Stock Advisor's list of the top 10 stocks to buy, which has historically provided significant returns for investors.
DG
$132.93+Infinity%1D
Analyst Views on DG
Wall Street analysts forecast DG stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for DG is 123.50 USD with a low forecast of 112.00 USD and a high forecast of 139.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
10 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast DG stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for DG is 123.50 USD with a low forecast of 112.00 USD and a high forecast of 139.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Buy
6 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 133.210
Low
112.00
Averages
123.50
High
139.00
Current: 133.210
Low
112.00
Averages
123.50
High
139.00
JPMorgan
Matthew Boss
Neutral -> Overweight
upgrade
$128 -> $166
2025-12-15
New
Reason
JPMorgan
Matthew Boss
Price Target
$128 -> $166
2025-12-15
New
upgrade
Neutral -> Overweight
Reason
JPMorgan analyst Matthew Boss upgraded Dollar General to Overweight from Neutral with a price target of $166, up from $128. The firm sees upside to company's 2%-3% same-store-sales growth outlook for fiscal 2026 given its exposure to the employed low-income consumer and higher level of middle income consumers trading down. Following a meeting with management, JPMorgan says Dollar General is "back on offense." The stock in premarket trading is up 3%, or $3.79, to $137.00.
JPMorgan
Neutral -> Overweight
upgrade
$128 -> $166
2025-12-15
New
Reason
JPMorgan
Price Target
$128 -> $166
2025-12-15
New
upgrade
Neutral -> Overweight
Reason
JPMorgan upgraded Dollar General to Overweight from Neutral with a price target of $166, up from $128. Following a meeting with management, the firm says Dollar General is "back on offense."
BNPP
Outperform -> Neutral
downgrade
€131
2025-12-10
Reason
BNPP
Price Target
€131
2025-12-10
downgrade
Outperform -> Neutral
Reason
BNPP downgraded Vinci to Neutral from Outperform with a EUR 131 price target. The firm adjusted ratings in the European transport and infrastructure group as part of its 2026 outlook.
Guggenheim
Buy
upgrade
$125 -> $140
2025-12-08
Reason
Guggenheim
Price Target
$125 -> $140
2025-12-08
upgrade
Buy
Reason
Guggenheim raised the firm's price target on Dollar General to $140 from $125 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm, which is raising its "above-consensus" 2025 and 2026 EPS estimates, argues that while the multiple has expanded by one turn in the past two weeks it is "still undemanding."
About DG
Dollar General Corporation is a discount retailer. The Company offers merchandise, including consumable items, seasonal items, home products and apparel. Its merchandise includes brands from manufacturers, as well as its own private brand selections with prices at discounts to brands. Its consumables category includes paper and cleaning products, packaged food, perishables, snacks, health and beauty, pet, and tobacco products. Its seasonal products include holiday items, toys, batteries, small electronics, greeting cards, stationery, prepaid phones and accessories, gardening supplies, hardware, automotive and home office supplies. Its home products include kitchen supplies, cookware, small appliances, light bulbs, storage containers, frames, candles, craft supplies and kitchen, bed and bath soft goods. The Company’s apparel products include basic items for infants, toddlers, girls, boys, women and men, as well as socks, underwear, disposable diapers, shoes and accessories.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
