GXO Logistics Exceeds Q4 Earnings Expectations
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1 hour ago
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Should l Buy GXO?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
- Earnings Beat: GXO Logistics reported a 7.9% overall revenue growth to $3.51 billion in Q4, surpassing the expected $3.48 billion, demonstrating resilience in a sluggish macroeconomic environment, which is likely to boost investor confidence.
- Adjusted EPS Performance: Although adjusted earnings per share fell from $1.00 to $0.87, it still exceeded market expectations of $0.83, reflecting the company's profitability amidst revenue fluctuations, potentially attracting more investor interest.
- Future Growth Guidance: GXO anticipates a 20% growth in adjusted EPS by 2026, targeting 4%-5% organic revenue growth and EBITDA growth of $930 million to $970 million, showcasing the company's strategic commitment to margin expansion.
- Technological Innovation Investment: The company is testing humanoid robots and its AI-powered GXO IQ warehouse operating system, aimed at enhancing labor planning and inventory distribution efficiency, with this technological advancement viewed as a
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Analyst Views on GXO
Wall Street analysts forecast GXO stock price to rise
12 Analyst Rating
11 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 63.350
Low
58.00
Averages
66.08
High
80.00
Current: 63.350
Low
58.00
Averages
66.08
High
80.00
About GXO
GXO Logistics, Inc. is a contract logistics provider. The Company provides its customers with value-added warehousing and distribution, order fulfillment, e-commerce, reverse logistics and other supply chain services to deliver technology-enabled customized solutions. It offers its technology in three areas: labor and inventory management productivity, intelligent warehouse automation and predictive analytics, all of which are integrated through its warehouse management platform. The Company has three reporting units: Americas and Asia-Pacific; United Kingdom; and Ireland and Continental Europe. It operates approximately 1,030 facilities worldwide, totaling 218 million square feet of space, primarily on behalf of large corporations that have outsourced their warehousing, distribution, and other related activities to the Company. It serves a range of customers in various industries, including grocery, retail and manufacturing, consumer goods, healthcare, defense, industrial, and energy.
About the author

Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
- Earnings Beat: GXO Logistics reported a 7.9% overall revenue growth to $3.51 billion in Q4, surpassing the expected $3.48 billion, demonstrating resilience in a sluggish macroeconomic environment, which is likely to boost investor confidence.
- Adjusted EPS Performance: Although adjusted earnings per share fell from $1.00 to $0.87, it still exceeded market expectations of $0.83, reflecting the company's profitability amidst revenue fluctuations, potentially attracting more investor interest.
- Future Growth Guidance: GXO anticipates a 20% growth in adjusted EPS by 2026, targeting 4%-5% organic revenue growth and EBITDA growth of $930 million to $970 million, showcasing the company's strategic commitment to margin expansion.
- Technological Innovation Investment: The company is testing humanoid robots and its AI-powered GXO IQ warehouse operating system, aimed at enhancing labor planning and inventory distribution efficiency, with this technological advancement viewed as a
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- Performance Growth: GXO Logistics achieved a 7.9% overall revenue growth in Q4, reaching $3.51 billion, surpassing market expectations of $3.48 billion, demonstrating the company's resilience in a sluggish macroeconomic environment.
- Profitability Shift: Although adjusted earnings per share fell from $1.00 to $0.87, it still exceeded the expected $0.83, reflecting the challenges in profitability amidst revenue growth.
- Strategic Transformation: New CEO Patrick Kelleher is focused on consolidating operations and globalizing the business, with a 2026 outlook suggesting 4%-5% organic revenue growth and 20% EPS growth, indicating significant future growth potential.
- Technological Investment: GXO is investing in the AI-powered warehouse operating system GXO IQ and humanoid robots, which are expected to enhance labor planning and inventory distribution efficiency, thereby strengthening the company's technological edge and market competitiveness.
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- Record Revenue: GXO Logistics achieved a record revenue of $3.5 billion in Q4 2025, with total annual revenue reaching $13.2 billion, demonstrating robust growth even in a dynamic macro environment, which enhances market confidence.
- New Business Growth: The company secured $1.1 billion in new contracts for 2025, with an expected incremental revenue of $774 million for 2026, representing over 20% growth compared to last year, which will further drive market share expansion.
- Accelerated Technology Investment: GXO plans to expedite the application of AI and robotics, particularly humanoid robots, to enhance operational efficiency, with the rollout of the GXO IQ system aimed at optimizing warehouse management and strengthening competitive advantages.
- Financial Robustness: The adjusted EBITDA for 2025 reached $881 million, with net income of $292 million, and improved debt leverage to 2.5x, showcasing the company's strong foundation in capital management and long-term growth potential.
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- Earnings Performance: GXO Logistics reported a Q4 GAAP EPS of $0.37, missing expectations by $0.23, indicating pressure on profitability that could affect investor confidence.
- Revenue Growth: The company achieved Q4 revenue of $3.51 billion, an 8.0% year-over-year increase, beating market expectations by $30 million, demonstrating strong business momentum despite the earnings miss.
- Financing Challenges: GXO's promise of returns below Treasury levels indicates difficulties in financing growth from earnings, potentially limiting future expansion and investment capabilities, impacting long-term strategy.
- Contract Renewal: GXO's renewal of the contract with BAE Systems in the UK further solidifies its position in key markets, and while overall financial performance is lacking, this move helps enhance customer trust and market share.
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Market Expectations: The logistics industry anticipates adjustments in pricing, with projections ranging from $2.85 to $3.15 for the year 2026.
Industry Trends: These expected price changes reflect broader trends and challenges within the logistics sector, indicating potential shifts in supply and demand dynamics.
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- Earnings Announcement Schedule: GXO Logistics is set to release its Q4 2023 earnings report on February 10 after market close, with consensus EPS estimate at $0.83, reflecting a 17% year-over-year decline, while revenue is expected to reach $3.48 billion, indicating a 7.1% year-over-year growth, showcasing the company's resilience amid economic fluctuations.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past two years, GXO has surpassed EPS estimates 75% of the time and revenue estimates 88% of the time, indicating a degree of stability and market confidence in the company's financial performance.
- Expectation Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen one upward revision and seven downward adjustments, while revenue estimates experienced three upward revisions and four downward adjustments, reflecting analysts' divergence and market uncertainty regarding the company's future performance.
- Market Reaction: Following Brad Jacobs' resignation as non-executive chair, GXO's stock has declined, suggesting that concerns over corporate governance and future strategic direction may be affecting investor confidence.
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