Gevo projects $150M adjusted EBITDA potential for ATJ-30 jet fuel facility as carbon credit sales increase.
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Nov 10 2025
0mins
Source: SeekingAlpha
Management Insights: CEO Patrick Gruber highlighted the successful acquisition of an ethanol and carbon capture plant in North Dakota, projecting over $100 million in annual adjusted EBITDA without major capital projects, and emphasizing the importance of robust auditing and legal frameworks for carbon credit sales.
Financial Performance: Gevo reported $108 million in cash and a combined operating revenue of $43.6 million for Q3 2025, with a net loss of $3.7 million and a positive non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA of $6.6 million, reflecting significant year-over-year growth.
Future Outlook: Management anticipates continued growth in carbon dioxide removal (CDR) sales and plans to add a 30 million gallon jet fuel plant, which could contribute an additional $150 million in adjusted EBITDA, while also addressing risks related to cash flow timing and market volatility.
Analyst Sentiment: The tone of the earnings call was notably optimistic, with analysts focusing on EBITDA growth and strategic partnerships, indicating increased confidence in Gevo's operational execution and future revenue streams compared to previous quarters.
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Analyst Views on GEVO
Wall Street analysts forecast GEVO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GEVO is 8.50 USD with a low forecast of 3.00 USD and a high forecast of 14.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 2.020
Low
3.00
Averages
8.50
High
14.00
Current: 2.020
Low
3.00
Averages
8.50
High
14.00
About GEVO
Gevo, Inc. is a diversified energy company. The Company’s segments include Gevo, GevoFuels, GevoRNG and Gevo North Dakota (GevoND). The Gevo segment is responsible for all research and development activities related to the future production of SAF, commercial opportunities for other renewable hydrocarbon products, such as hydrocarbons for gasoline blendstocks and diesel fuel; ingredients for the chemical industry, such as ethylene and butene; plastics and materials, and other chemicals. The GevoFuels segment is focused on advancing practical, low-carbon energy alternatives that promote energy independence and strengthen the economy. The GevoRNG segment is a project that leverages anaerobic digestion technology to capture and convert methane emissions into renewable natural gas. The GevoND segment includes advanced CCS technologies and low-carbon ethanol assets at a facility in North Dakota, enhancing its portfolio of integrated carbon abatement solutions.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Gevo (GEVO) Awarded Patent for Ethanol-to-Olefins Technology, Potentially Reducing Costs by 35%
- Patent Approval: Gevo announced it has been awarded a patent for its ethanol-to-olefins technology, which can potentially reduce production costs of renewable jet fuel and chemicals by up to 35%, significantly enhancing the company's market competitiveness.
- Technology Application: The patented process produces light olefins from ethanol and can convert these into transportation fuels using commercially proven alcohol-to-jet technologies, thereby broadening the company's product line and market applications.
- Partnerships: Gevo is collaborating with LG Chem and Axens to develop a next-generation ETO process for renewable chemical and fuel applications, strengthening its strategic positioning in the renewable energy sector.
- Intellectual Property Strategy: Gevo President Paul Bloom stated that the company is continuously building its intellectual property portfolio, aiming to maintain a cost-leadership position in alcohol-to-jet technologies for years to come, ensuring long-term market advantages.
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Gevo's North Dakota Facility Receives 'A' Rating from BeZero Carbon
- Carbon Rating Upgrade: Gevo's North Dakota facility has received an 'A' rating from BeZero Carbon, indicating its leadership in the voluntary carbon market, which is expected to enhance the market value of carbon credits and strengthen the company's competitive position in renewable energy.
- Carbon Capture Capacity: The facility has the capacity to capture 1 million tons of CO2 annually, making it the largest producer of technology-based carbon dioxide removal credits globally, further solidifying Gevo's dominance in the carbon credit market.
- Agricultural Sustainability: Gevo will leverage its developed Verity platform to enhance transparency in agricultural measurement, reporting, and verification, ensuring the sustainability of its corn feedstock, which will increase the environmental integrity and market value of its carbon credits.
- Future Development Plans: The company plans to pilot an updated sustainable biomass sourcing and management program that will gather deeper data on agricultural practices, further enhancing the value of its carbon credits and benefiting farmers.
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