Germany's December Inflation Falls to 1.8%, Market Reaction Muted

Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst

ASML+5.37%

GF+0.17%

Source: seekingalpha

Updated: 1h ago

0mins

Source: seekingalpha

Inflation Data Decline: Germany's annual inflation rate fell to 1.8% in December, matching flash estimates and down from 2.3% in November, indicating signs of economic slowdown that could influence future monetary policy decisions.
Muted Market Reaction: Despite a week of earnings boosting risk appetite, the market is expected to be guided by geopolitical developments on Friday due to a lack of new data, resulting in a relatively stable performance overall.
ASML Surpasses $500 Billion Market Value: ASML's stock rose 0.5% after surpassing a $500 billion market value, driven by a price target upgrade from Morgan Stanley, reflecting market confidence in its future growth prospects.
Natural Gas Futures Rise: European natural gas futures climbed to about €35/MWh, the highest level since July 31, amid concerns over supply and storage due to colder weather forecasts, intensifying market worries.

ASML

$1331.6+Infinity%1D

Analyst Views on ASML

Wall Street analysts forecast ASML stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ASML is 1048 USD with a low forecast of 864.94 USD and a high forecast of 1175 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

7 Analyst Rating

5 Buy

2 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 1263.720

Low

864.94

Averages

1048

High

1175

Current: 1263.720

Low

864.94

Averages

1048

High

1175

Berenberg

Tammy Qiu

Buy

maintain

Al Analysis

2026-01-07

Reason

Berenberg

Tammy Qiu

Price Target

Al Analysis

2026-01-07

maintain

Buy

Reason

Berenberg analyst Tammy Qiu raised the firm's price target on ASML to EUR 1,200 from EUR 1,050 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares.

Bernstein

Market Perform -> Outperform

upgrade

$935

2026-01-04

Reason

Bernstein

Price Target

$935

2026-01-04

upgrade

Market Perform -> Outperform

Reason

Bernstein upgraded ASML to Outperform from Market Perform with a price target of $1,528, up from $935. The firm also named ASML its top pick in European semiconductors for 2026. The company will benefit from the upcoming DRAM "super cycle," the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says the top three DRAM makers are adding greenfield capacity in 2026 and accelerating the node migration, which is "great" for ASML. Bernstein believes 2026 and 2027 will be "big years" for extreme ultraviolet and for ASML.

Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for ASML

Unlock Now

Bernstein

Market Perform

Outperform

upgrade

$935

2026-01-04

Reason

Bernstein

Price Target

$935

2026-01-04

upgrade

Market Perform

Outperform

Reason

Catch up on the weekend's top five stories with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. President Trump told Fox News that the U.S. will be "very strongly involved" in Venezuela's oil industry. Trump said, "What can I say? We have the greatest oil companies in the world, the biggest, the greatest, and we're going to be very much involved in it." Publicly traded companies in the space include BP (BP), Chevron (CVX), ConocoPhillips (COP), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Shell (SHEL) and TotalEnergies (TTE). 2. L3Harris (LHX) is nearing a deal to sell a 60% stake in a portfolio of space and propulsion businesses to AE Industrial Partners, Mike Stone as Reuters reports, citing three people familiar with the matter. This comes as the company works to sharpen its focus on national security. The deal could be announced as soon as Monday. L3Harris will retain a 40% stake in the portfolio of businesses and AE Industrial will pay over $500M for its 60% stake, two sources added. 3. Airbus (EADSY) exceeded its revised annual target of 790, delivering 793 aircraft in 2025, Siddharth Philip of Bloomberg reports, citing people familiar with the matter. The figures are currently preliminary and may change, the sources added. 4. In an effort to compete with Meituan in the Chinese food and dining sector, Alibaba (BABA) is launching a service meant to assist restaurants via AI to showcase interiors, Debby Wu of Bloomberg reports. Alibaba's maps and local services unit Amap will allow restaurants to create 3D-images by uploading videos or photos, which should lower the marketing and promotional costs for merchants, sources familiar with the matter said. 5. Bernstein upgraded ASML (ASML) to Outperform from Market Perform with a price target of $1,528, up from $935. The firm also named ASML its top pick in European semiconductors for 2026. The company will benefit from the upcoming DRAM "super cycle," the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says the top three DRAM makers are adding greenfield capacity in 2026 and accelerating the node migration, which is "great" for ASML. Bernstein believes 2026 and 2027 will be "big years" for extreme ultraviolet and for ASML.

Aletheia Capital

Warren Lau

Sell -> Buy

upgrade

$750

2026-01-02

Reason

Aletheia Capital

Warren Lau

Price Target

$750

2026-01-02

upgrade

Sell -> Buy

Reason

Aletheia Capital analyst Warren Lau double upgraded ASML to Buy from Sell with a Street-high price target of $1,500, up from $750. The firm increased its fiscal 2026 and 2027 earnings estimates "significantly" to reflect ASML's investment expansions and capacity upgrades. Stronger extreme ultraviolet lithography demand from DRAM suppliers, "resilient" deep ultraviolet orders from China a potential surge in TSMC demand in fiscal 2027 will drive upside to estimates, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

About ASML

ASML Holding N.V. is a holding company based in the Netherlands. The Company operates through its subsidiaries in the Netherlands, the United States, Italy, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Belgium, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, China, Hong Kong, Japan, Malaysia and Israel. The Company operates through one business segment which is engage in development, production, marketing, sales, upgrading and servicing of advanced semiconductor equipment systems, consisting of lithography, metrology and inspection systems. The Company offers TWINSCAN systems, equipped with lithography system with a mercury lamp as light source (i-line), Krypton Fluoride (KrF) and Argon Fluoride (ArF) light sources for processing wafers for manufacturing environments for which imaging at a small resolution is required. TWINSCAN systems also include immersion lithography systems (TWINSCAN immersion systems).

About the author

Emily J. Thompson

Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.