BABA-W Performance and Outlook: BABA-W's cloud business and capital expenditures exceeded expectations for Q1 FY2025, leading Goldman Sachs to maintain a Buy rating and a positive outlook on AI-driven growth.
Market Share Projections: Goldman Sachs anticipates BABA-W will stabilize its market share in food delivery and instant retail at 40%, with competitors Meituan and JD holding 50% and 10%, respectively.
Profit Forecast Adjustments: The broker has lowered its FY2026-2027 adjusted net profit forecasts by 9% and 4%, while also reducing EBITA forecasts by 11% and 1%, but raised FY2028 earnings and EBITA forecasts by 2%.
Target Price Increase: Goldman Sachs has increased its target prices for BABA-W's H-shares and US stock to $158 and $163, respectively, reflecting optimism about future growth from investments in e-commerce and cloud services.
03690
$101.3+Infinity%1D
Analyst Views on 03690
Wall Street analysts forecast 03690 stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for 03690 is USD with a low forecast of USD and a high forecast of USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast 03690 stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for 03690 is USD with a low forecast of USD and a high forecast of USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Current: 99.500
Low
Averages
High
Current: 99.500
Low
Averages
High
S&P Global
A-
maintain
2025-12-02
Reason
S&P Global
Price Target
2025-12-02
maintain
A-
Reason
The analyst rating from S&P Global for Meituan (03690.HK) is influenced by several factors indicating that the risks to the company's EBITDA recovery are increasing. The primary reasons include:
1. Rising Costs: Meituan is facing increasing costs to maintain its market leadership in local commerce, which may hinder the recovery of its profit margins.
2. Lower EBITDA Margin Forecast: The company’s food delivery segment is expected to have an EBITDA margin in 2026 that is lower than initially forecasted, suggesting a slower recovery than anticipated.
3. Increased Marketing Investment: As subsidies decrease, Meituan may need to invest more in marketing to attract and retain customer loyalty and ensure the quality of rider services, further impacting its costs.
4. Competitive Pressure: The narrowing cost gap in delivery services between Meituan and its main competitor, Alibaba (BABA-W), is likely to increase Meituan's expenses related to maintaining brand recognition and consumer awareness.
Overall, these factors contribute to a more cautious outlook on Meituan's financial recovery, leading S&P Global to assign an A- credit rating with a Stable outlook.
JPMorgan
Neutral
downgrade
$100 -> $95
2025-12-02
Reason
JPMorgan
Price Target
$100 -> $95
2025-12-02
downgrade
Neutral
Reason
JPMorgan's cautious stance on MEITUAN-W (03690.HK) is based on uncertainties surrounding three key areas: competition in the food delivery business, the sustainability of profits in the in-store business, and the execution of overseas expansion. These factors contribute to weakened financial visibility and increased risk of earnings volatility, prompting the firm to maintain a Neutral rating and lower its target price from HKD100 to HKD95.
China Merchants Securities
China Merchants Securities
Overweight
maintain
$139
2025-12-02
Reason
China Merchants Securities
China Merchants Securities
Price Target
$139
2025-12-02
maintain
Overweight
Reason
The analyst rating from China Merchants Securities for MEITUAN-W (03690.HK) is based on the anticipation that the company's earnings will recover next year due to its stable high customer order share. Despite a decline in gross profit and an operating loss in the recent quarter, the firm maintains a positive outlook, projecting that the core local business operating loss will be manageable. They have set a target price of HKD139 and assigned an "Overweight" rating, indicating confidence in the company's future performance.
Daiwa
Daiwa
Buy
to
Buy
downgrade
$170 -> $140
2025-12-01
Reason
Daiwa
Daiwa
Price Target
$170 -> $140
2025-12-01
downgrade
Buy
to
Buy
Reason
The analyst rating for MEITUAN-W (03690.HK) was maintained at "Buy" by Daiwa due to signs of a gradual moderate recovery across various businesses, particularly in the food delivery sector where losses are stabilizing. Despite anticipated losses in new businesses and pressure on profit margins in the in-store segment, the achievement of breakeven in Keeta's Hong Kong operations and confidence in its development in other regions contributed to the positive outlook. However, the target price was reduced from $170 to $140, and EPS estimations for 2026-2027 were lowered by 23-43% due to expected increased investment leading to expanded losses for Keeta next year.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
