Post-IPO Loss: Firefly Aerospace conducted its IPO on August 7, 2025, selling 19.296 million shares at $45 each, but reported a staggering $80.3 million loss in Q2 2025, causing its stock to plummet 15.31% to $41.94 on September 23, 2025.
Revenue Decline: The company reported revenue of $15.55 million, falling short of analyst expectations of $17.25 million and down 26.2% year-over-year, with only $9.2 million from its Spacecraft Solutions segment, indicating severe demand issues.
Technical Setback: On September 29, 2025, Firefly disclosed a failure in the first stage of its Alpha Flight 7 rocket, raising significant doubts about the company's technological viability and commercial launch commitments, especially after a previous failed launch in April 2025.
Legal Action: Faruqi & Faruqi LLP is investigating potential claims against Firefly and is urging investors to seek lead plaintiff status in a federal securities class action by January 12, 2026, highlighting the legal risks and investor concerns surrounding the company.
FLY
$19.44+Infinity%1D
Analyst Views on FLY
Wall Street analysts forecast FLY stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FLY is 42.29 USD with a low forecast of 27.00 USD and a high forecast of 65.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
7 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast FLY stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FLY is 42.29 USD with a low forecast of 27.00 USD and a high forecast of 65.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
5 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 20.280
Low
27.00
Averages
42.29
High
65.00
Current: 20.280
Low
27.00
Averages
42.29
High
65.00
JPMorgan
Seth Seifman
Overweight
downgrade
$55 -> $28
2025-11-25
Reason
JPMorgan
Seth Seifman
Price Target
$55 -> $28
2025-11-25
downgrade
Overweight
Reason
JPMorgan analyst Seth Seifman lowered the firm's price target on FireFly Aerospace to $28 from $55 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm attributes the stock's underperformance to difficulties in ramping up Alpha launches in the near term. It cut estimates o reflect a more gradual ramp in Alpha launches and a more "company-funded approach" to the Golden Dome from the Department of Defense.
Roth Capital
Buy
maintain
$30
2025-11-24
Reason
Roth Capital
Price Target
$30
2025-11-24
maintain
Buy
Reason
Roth Capital keeps a Buy rating and $30 price target on FireFly Aerospace. The company's portfolio of launch and spacecraft offerings can drive diverse growth over the next several quarters, and the firm is encouraged that FireFly has secular opportunities in launch, lunar missions, and defense programs such as Golden Dome, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Goldman Sachs
Anthony Valentini
Neutral
initiated
$29
2025-11-19
Reason
Goldman Sachs
Anthony Valentini
Price Target
$29
2025-11-19
initiated
Neutral
Reason
Goldman Sachs analyst Anthony Valentini, assuming coverage from Noah Poponak, reinstated coverage of FireFly Aerospace with a Neutral rating and $29 price target. The company is serving a nascent space market that is bound to grow significantly in the coming years and fills a white space in a supply-constrained space launch market, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Goldman adds however that while it continues to see an attractive medium- to long-term investment case for FireFly, the launch industry comes with inherent risk, and the company's recent launch mishaps warrant caution.
Morgan Stanley
Equal Weight
downgrade
$52 -> $27
2025-11-17
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
$52 -> $27
2025-11-17
downgrade
Equal Weight
Reason
Morgan Stanley lowered the firm's price target on FireFly Aerospace (FLY) to $27 from $52 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. With the stock trading about 49% below its August IPO price of $45, the firm is "not surprised by the market's warm reaction" to what it calls "solid" Q3 results. However, given's FireFly's more limited successful launch track record and more recent Alpha mishaps, the firm expects shares to trade at a steeper discount to Space launch peer Rocket Lab (RKLB) and closer to Space infrastructure and exploration peers until FireFly re-establishes its footing with Alpha, the analyst tells investors.
About FLY
Firefly Aerospace Inc. is a space and defense technology company. The Company provides comprehensive mission solutions to national security, government, and commercial customers. It has designed, developed, and deployed its vehicles and dynamic spacecraft solutions to support critical customer missions across the space domain. It has a differentiated and scalable platform of Launch and Spacecraft Solutions with flight heritage. Within Launch, it has two offerings built on common technologies: Alpha and Eclipse. Alpha is a United States-based orbital rocket in the 1,000 kilograms class to successfully reach orbit, with four launches completed. Eclipse, a reusable and scaled up version of Alpha. Its Spacecraft Solutions include Blue Ghost lander (Blue Ghost) and Elytra offerings, highlight the heritage of common technologies from its launch vehicles. Blue Ghost Lander and Elytra are highly maneuverable spacecraft enabled by high-performance rocket engine technology.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
