Company Expects Copper Production to Reach 77,500 Tonnes
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 16h ago
0mins
Should l Buy ERO?
Consolidated copper production is expected to be in the range of 67,500 to 77,500 tonnes, representing an increase of up to 20% compared to 2025. Guidance reflects higher sustained plant throughput and lower planned grades at both Caraiba and Tucuma. Consolidated C1 cash costs are expected to be between $2.15 and $2.35 per pound of copper produced. At the Xavantina Operations, gold production from mine operations is expected to total 40,000 to 50,000 ounces representing an increase of up to 34% compared to 2025, with C1 cash costs of $1,000 to $1,250 per ounce of gold produced and all-in sustaining costs of $2,000 to $2,500 per ounce produced. In addition, gold sales from the Xavantina Operations are expected to be significantly bolstered with the continued sale of gold concentrates that commenced in Q4 2025, and which are expected to continue through mid-2027 . Capital expenditures across the Company's operating portfolio are expected to range between $245 and $280 million. This includes capital for additional mine ventilation, development, and equipment to support future growth at the Xavantina Operations, as well as approximately $80 million related to the continued construction of the Pilar Mine's new shaft and ancillary infrastructure at the Caraiba Operations. The Company expects to spend an additional $30 to $40 million to continue advancing Furnas exploration, engineering, and permitting workstreams, and to further advance several exploration opportunities within the Company's portfolio.
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Analyst Views on ERO
Wall Street analysts forecast ERO stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ERO is 25.65 USD with a low forecast of 22.32 USD and a high forecast of 30.23 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
10 Analyst Rating
4 Buy
6 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 35.240
Low
22.32
Averages
25.65
High
30.23
Current: 35.240
Low
22.32
Averages
25.65
High
30.23
About ERO
Ero Copper Corp. is a copper producer with operations in Brazil. The Company's primary asset is a 99.6% interest in the Brazilian copper mining company, Mineracao Caraiba S.A. (MCSA), 100% owner of the Company's Caraiba Operations, which are located in the Curaca Valley, Bahia State, Brazil, and the Tucuma Operation, an open pit copper mine located in Para State, Brazil. The Company also owns 97.6% of NX Gold S.A. (NX Gold), which owns the Xavantina Operations, an operating gold and silver mine located in Mato Grosso State, Brazil. It also has an agreement with Vale Base Metals for a 60% interest in the Furnas Copper-Gold Project, located in the Carajas Mineral Province in Para State, Brazil. The Caraiba Operations are located in northeastern Bahia State, Brazil, approximately 385 kilometers (km) north-northwest of the capital city of Salvador. The Xavantina Operations are located in southeastern Mato Grosso State, Brazil, approximately 670 km east of the capital city of Cuiaba.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Ero Copper Reports Record Copper Production for 2025
- Record Copper Production: Ero Copper achieved a record copper production of 64,307 tonnes in 2025, reflecting significant operational optimization, with expectations to further increase production to between 67,500 and 77,500 tonnes in 2026, indicating strong growth potential.
- Significant Gold Production Increase: The total gold production for 2025 reached 52,290 ounces, with Q4 production at 13,837 ounces, more than doubling compared to Q1, driven by a value-creation initiative at Xavantina, which is expected to continue boosting future gold output.
- Enhanced Liquidity: The company's liquidity at the end of 2025 was approximately $150 million, an increase of nearly $40 million quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to strong sales of copper and gold, enhancing the company's capacity for future investments and expansions.
- Capital Expenditure Plans: Capital expenditures for 2026 are expected to range from $245 million to $280 million, primarily aimed at supporting growth at Xavantina and the construction of a new shaft at the Pilar Mine, demonstrating the company's strong commitment to future development.
See More
EroCopper to Release Q4 and Full Year 2025 Results
- Earnings Release Schedule: EroCopper will publish its Q4 and full year 2025 financial results on March 5, 2026, after market close, demonstrating the company's commitment to transparency and investor communication.
- Conference Call Details: The company will host a conference call on March 6, 2026, at 11:30 AM Eastern Time, which is expected to attract investor and analyst participation, thereby enhancing market focus on the company's performance.
- Webcast and Replay Availability: On the day of the earnings release, EroCopper will provide a webcast and replay service, ensuring that investors can access key information promptly, thus improving information accessibility and transparency.
- Company Background: EroCopper is a Brazil-focused mining company with a diversified portfolio of copper and gold assets, committed to safety and operational excellence, showcasing its long-term growth potential in the mining sector.
See More
ERO Options Analysis: $30 Strike Price Offers Significant Appeal
- Options Overview: The current bid for the put contract at a $30 strike price is 50 cents, meaning that if an investor sells-to-open this contract, they commit to buying the stock at $30 while collecting a premium, effectively lowering their cost basis to $29.50, making it an attractive alternative to the current market price of $30.27.
- Potential Return Analysis: Should the contract expire worthless, the premium would yield a 1.67% return on the cash commitment, translating to an annualized return of 9.51%, indicating that utilizing options strategies can effectively enhance investment returns under current market conditions.
- Market Risk Assessment: Current analytical data suggests a 56% probability that the contract will expire worthless, highlighting the need for investors to consider potential market volatility and risks when opting for this strategy.
- Volatility Comparison: The implied volatility for the put option is 54%, while the actual trailing twelve-month volatility stands at 53%, indicating that the market's expected volatility for this contract is closely aligned with historical volatility, which investors should monitor for changes.
See More
Copper Futures Drop to $13,033, Goldman Sachs Predicts $11,000 by Year-End 2026
- Price Decline: Copper futures fell to $13,033 per metric ton on the London Metal Exchange, down 2% from all-time highs, reflecting market concerns over future demand.
- Future Forecast: Goldman Sachs analysts predict copper prices will drop to $11,000 per ton by year-end 2026, primarily due to rising global inventories and underperforming demand, indicating a deterioration in market fundamentals.
- Weak Demand: China's copper demand growth fell short of expectations in Q4 2025, with weakening electric vehicle sales posing further downside risks, prompting manufacturers to consider switching from copper to aluminum.
- Policy Impact: The Trump administration's decision to delay tariffs on critical mineral imports may lead to lower premiums for U.S. copper, although prices are expected to remain around $13,000 in Q1 due to uncertainty surrounding refined copper tariffs.
See More
COPX ETF Hits 52-Week High of $81.28, Last Trade at $80.07
- Price Fluctuation Analysis: COPX ETF's 52-week low is $30.77 and high is $81.28, with the last trade at $80.07, indicating strong market performance and positive investor sentiment.
- Technical Analysis Tool: Comparing the current share price to the 200-day moving average provides investors with an effective technical analysis perspective, aiding in market trend assessment and potential buying opportunities.
- ETF Unit Trading Mechanism: ETFs trade like stocks, where investors buy and sell 'units' that can be created or destroyed based on investor demand, impacting the underlying holdings of the ETF.
- Inflows and Outflows Monitoring: Weekly monitoring of changes in ETF units focuses on significant inflows (new units created) or outflows (old units destroyed), which directly affect the performance of individual stocks held within the ETF and overall market dynamics.
See More
Ero Copper Corp. Receives Buy Rating with $32 Price Target
- Analyst Rating Upgrade: Freedom Capital Markets analyst Vitaly Kononov initiated coverage on Ero Copper Corp. (NYSE:ERO) with a Buy rating and set a price target of $32, indicating significant upside from Monday's closing price of $27.52, reflecting strong market confidence in the company's future growth.
- Positive Market Reaction: Following the analyst rating announcement, the optimistic sentiment towards Ero Copper's prospects may drive the stock price higher, further attracting investor interest and enhancing the company's competitiveness in the copper mining sector.
- Favorable Industry Outlook: With the global demand for copper on the rise, Ero Copper's business model and market positioning provide advantages in resource development and supply chain management, positioning the company to benefit from industry recovery and price increases.
- Increased Investor Confidence: The positive rating not only enhances Ero Copper's market image but may also attract more institutional investors, thereby supporting the company's future capital operations and expansion efforts.
See More
Ero Copper Reports Record Copper Production for 2025
- Record Copper Production: Ero Copper achieved a record copper production of 64,307 tonnes in 2025, reflecting significant operational optimization, with expectations to further increase production to between 67,500 and 77,500 tonnes in 2026, indicating strong growth potential.
- Significant Gold Production Increase: The total gold production for 2025 reached 52,290 ounces, with Q4 production at 13,837 ounces, more than doubling compared to Q1, driven by a value-creation initiative at Xavantina, which is expected to continue boosting future gold output.
- Enhanced Liquidity: The company's liquidity at the end of 2025 was approximately $150 million, an increase of nearly $40 million quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to strong sales of copper and gold, enhancing the company's capacity for future investments and expansions.
- Capital Expenditure Plans: Capital expenditures for 2026 are expected to range from $245 million to $280 million, primarily aimed at supporting growth at Xavantina and the construction of a new shaft at the Pilar Mine, demonstrating the company's strong commitment to future development.
See More
EroCopper to Release Q4 and Full Year 2025 Results
- Earnings Release Schedule: EroCopper will publish its Q4 and full year 2025 financial results on March 5, 2026, after market close, demonstrating the company's commitment to transparency and investor communication.
- Conference Call Details: The company will host a conference call on March 6, 2026, at 11:30 AM Eastern Time, which is expected to attract investor and analyst participation, thereby enhancing market focus on the company's performance.
- Webcast and Replay Availability: On the day of the earnings release, EroCopper will provide a webcast and replay service, ensuring that investors can access key information promptly, thus improving information accessibility and transparency.
- Company Background: EroCopper is a Brazil-focused mining company with a diversified portfolio of copper and gold assets, committed to safety and operational excellence, showcasing its long-term growth potential in the mining sector.
See More
ERO Options Analysis: $30 Strike Price Offers Significant Appeal
- Options Overview: The current bid for the put contract at a $30 strike price is 50 cents, meaning that if an investor sells-to-open this contract, they commit to buying the stock at $30 while collecting a premium, effectively lowering their cost basis to $29.50, making it an attractive alternative to the current market price of $30.27.
- Potential Return Analysis: Should the contract expire worthless, the premium would yield a 1.67% return on the cash commitment, translating to an annualized return of 9.51%, indicating that utilizing options strategies can effectively enhance investment returns under current market conditions.
- Market Risk Assessment: Current analytical data suggests a 56% probability that the contract will expire worthless, highlighting the need for investors to consider potential market volatility and risks when opting for this strategy.
- Volatility Comparison: The implied volatility for the put option is 54%, while the actual trailing twelve-month volatility stands at 53%, indicating that the market's expected volatility for this contract is closely aligned with historical volatility, which investors should monitor for changes.
See More
Copper Futures Drop to $13,033, Goldman Sachs Predicts $11,000 by Year-End 2026
- Price Decline: Copper futures fell to $13,033 per metric ton on the London Metal Exchange, down 2% from all-time highs, reflecting market concerns over future demand.
- Future Forecast: Goldman Sachs analysts predict copper prices will drop to $11,000 per ton by year-end 2026, primarily due to rising global inventories and underperforming demand, indicating a deterioration in market fundamentals.
- Weak Demand: China's copper demand growth fell short of expectations in Q4 2025, with weakening electric vehicle sales posing further downside risks, prompting manufacturers to consider switching from copper to aluminum.
- Policy Impact: The Trump administration's decision to delay tariffs on critical mineral imports may lead to lower premiums for U.S. copper, although prices are expected to remain around $13,000 in Q1 due to uncertainty surrounding refined copper tariffs.
See More
COPX ETF Hits 52-Week High of $81.28, Last Trade at $80.07
- Price Fluctuation Analysis: COPX ETF's 52-week low is $30.77 and high is $81.28, with the last trade at $80.07, indicating strong market performance and positive investor sentiment.
- Technical Analysis Tool: Comparing the current share price to the 200-day moving average provides investors with an effective technical analysis perspective, aiding in market trend assessment and potential buying opportunities.
- ETF Unit Trading Mechanism: ETFs trade like stocks, where investors buy and sell 'units' that can be created or destroyed based on investor demand, impacting the underlying holdings of the ETF.
- Inflows and Outflows Monitoring: Weekly monitoring of changes in ETF units focuses on significant inflows (new units created) or outflows (old units destroyed), which directly affect the performance of individual stocks held within the ETF and overall market dynamics.
See More
Ero Copper Corp. Receives Buy Rating with $32 Price Target
- Analyst Rating Upgrade: Freedom Capital Markets analyst Vitaly Kononov initiated coverage on Ero Copper Corp. (NYSE:ERO) with a Buy rating and set a price target of $32, indicating significant upside from Monday's closing price of $27.52, reflecting strong market confidence in the company's future growth.
- Positive Market Reaction: Following the analyst rating announcement, the optimistic sentiment towards Ero Copper's prospects may drive the stock price higher, further attracting investor interest and enhancing the company's competitiveness in the copper mining sector.
- Favorable Industry Outlook: With the global demand for copper on the rise, Ero Copper's business model and market positioning provide advantages in resource development and supply chain management, positioning the company to benefit from industry recovery and price increases.
- Increased Investor Confidence: The positive rating not only enhances Ero Copper's market image but may also attract more institutional investors, thereby supporting the company's future capital operations and expansion efforts.
See More
