CMBI's Sales Forecast: CMBI maintains a forecast for a 0.1% YoY decline in retail sales and a 2.9% YoY increase in wholesale sales of passenger vehicles in China, influenced by disappointing sales data from late last year.
New Energy Vehicles Adjustments: The growth forecast for new energy vehicles has been revised down to 12.6% for retail and 15.1% for wholesale sales due to stricter trade-in subsidy requirements.
Earnings Forecast Changes: CMBI has lowered its 4Q25 earnings forecasts for several automakers, including GWMOTOR, XPENG-W, LEAPMOTOR, and GAC GROUP, due to poor sales performance.
Positive Outlook for BYD and Others: Conversely, CMBI raised earnings forecasts for BYD, NIO, and LI AUTO, while maintaining its forecasts for GEELY AUTO, which it selected as a top pick with a Buy rating and a target price of HKD25.
Wall Street analysts forecast 00175 stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for 00175 is USD with a low forecast of USD and a high forecast of USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast 00175 stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for 00175 is USD with a low forecast of USD and a high forecast of USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Current: 16.710
Low
Averages
High
Current: 16.710
Low
Averages
High
CMBI
CMBI
downgrade
2026-01-22
New
Reason
CMBI
CMBI
Price Target
AI Analysis
2026-01-22
New
downgrade
Reason
The analyst rating for GEELY AUTO (00175.HK) was set to "Buy" with a target price of HKD25 due to the broker's upbeat outlook on the company's earnings visibility and attractive valuation. This positive assessment contrasts with the lowered earnings forecasts for other automakers, indicating a strong belief in GEELY AUTO's potential despite the overall weaker market conditions for the automotive sector in China.
CICC
CICC
maintain
$26
2026-01-06
Reason
CICC
CICC
Price Target
$26
2026-01-06
maintain
Reason
The analyst rating for Geely Auto (00175.HK) is based on several positive factors highlighted in the article. The key reasons for the "Outperform" rating include:
1. Strong Sales Growth: Geely logged passenger car sales of approximately 3.0246 million units in 2025, exceeding its original target of 3 million units, with a year-over-year growth of 39%. The company has set an ambitious target for 2026, aiming for a 14% increase in sales to 3.45 million units.
2. Positive Forecasts: The broker raised Geely's net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 3.2% and 8.9%, respectively, indicating confidence in the company's financial performance. Additionally, a new net profit forecast of RMB24.9 billion for 2027 was introduced.
3. Synergy and Profitability: The integration of Geely's brands (Geely, ZEEKR, and Lynk & Co) is expected to enhance production management and profitability through multi-brand synergy, which is anticipated to release stronger profit elasticity.
4. Upward Product Cycle: The article mentions an upward product cycle, which suggests that Geely is positioned to benefit from improved product offerings and market conditions.
These factors collectively support the analyst's decision to maintain an "Outperform" rating and a target price of HKD26 for Geely Auto.
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CMSI
Overweight
initiated
2026-01-02
Reason
CMSI
Price Target
2026-01-02
initiated
Overweight
Reason
The analyst rating from Citi Research is based on the updated trade-in subsidy policy for passenger vehicles in China, which is expected to accelerate market consolidation in the entry-level vehicle segment. The report highlights that the new subsidies for FY2026 will be calculated as a percentage of the vehicle price, differing from the fixed amounts in 2025. This change is anticipated to benefit larger automakers like BYD, Geely, and GWMotor, which have scale advantages and better cost control compared to smaller competitors. Additionally, the unchanged subsidies for commercial trucks and city buses are expected to benefit companies like Yutong Bus and Sinotruk. Overall, the analysis suggests a positive outlook for certain automakers in the context of the new subsidy structure.
CMSI
maintain
2025-12-11
Reason
CMSI
Price Target
2025-12-11
maintain
Reason
The analyst rating is based on several key factors:
1. US Economic Outlook: The expectation of moderate growth in the US economy due to the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and investments in AI, which supports a bullish stance on US stocks.
2. Hong Kong Market Transition: The forecast for the Hong Kong stock market indicates a shift from valuation recovery to earnings growth leadership, suggesting that while valuation expansion may slow, loose liquidity will continue to support the market.
3. Earnings-Driven Growth: By 2026, a combination of earnings-driven growth and liquidity support is anticipated, which is expected to positively influence the Hong Kong stock market.
4. Demand Dynamics in China: The notion that "new supply creates new demand" is highlighted as a new driving force for the Hong Kong stock market, particularly in the context of insufficient effective demand in China's economy.
Overall, the ratings reflect a strategic bullish outlook on US stocks and a positive transition for Hong Kong stocks, while advising caution regarding potential short-term risks.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
