4Q25 Financial Performance: JD-SW's revenue for 4Q25 is projected to increase by 0.6% YoY to RMB349.2 billion, but its non-GAAP net profit is expected to drop by 96% YoY to RMB484 million due to higher investments in the food delivery sector.
Impact of Macroeconomic Factors: The quarter faced macroeconomic pressures and a high baseline from national subsidies, leading to a 25% YoY decline in operating profit to RMB7.6 billion, as the company offered additional user subsidies to boost e-commerce consumption.
Revised Target Price: CMBI has adjusted its target price for JD.com from USD50.5 to USD46.8 while maintaining a Buy rating, reflecting a cautious outlook on the company's performance.
Short Selling Activity: JD-SW has seen significant short selling activity, with a total of $475.18 million and a short selling ratio of 31.516%, indicating market skepticism about its future performance.
Wall Street analysts forecast 09618 stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for 09618 is USD with a low forecast of USD and a high forecast of USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast 09618 stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for 09618 is USD with a low forecast of USD and a high forecast of USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Current: 113.900
Low
Averages
High
Current: 113.900
Low
Averages
High
Citi
Buy
downgrade
$44 -> $37
2026-01-05
Reason
Citi
Price Target
$44 -> $37
AI Analysis
2026-01-05
downgrade
Buy
Reason
Citi lowered its forecasts for JD-SW due to a steeper decline in home appliance sales indicated by November sales data from the National Bureau of Statistics, with expectations of further drops in December. This adjustment reflects weaker-than-expected retail sales for 4Q25 and a challenging comparison base anticipated in 1H26, despite the extension of the trade-in program. Citi also cut its adjusted net profit forecast for JD-SW, citing declines in revenue and gross margins, along with high sales and marketing expenses during the Double 11 promotion period. Despite reducing the target price from USD44 to USD37, Citi maintained a Buy rating, indicating that while the outlook is cautious, they still see potential in the stock.
Citi Research
downgrade
$144
2025-12-31
Reason
Citi Research
Price Target
$144
2025-12-31
downgrade
Reason
Citi Research's analyst rating is influenced by the belief that the continuation of the trade-in policy will positively impact e-commerce platforms by helping to mitigate the effects of a high base in the first half of 2026. Despite the first batch of subsidies being lower in amount and scope compared to the previous year, the report suggests that the policy can still enhance consumer sentiment. However, the analysts also note that the limited scale of the new subsidies and the higher base may restrict the overall benefits for JD-SW and other platforms, leading to a cautious outlook.
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HSBC Research
downgrade
$144
2025-12-31
Reason
HSBC Research
Price Target
$144
2025-12-31
downgrade
Reason
The analyst rating from JPMorgan is based on a lowered revenue growth forecast for JD-SW (09618.HK) for 4Q25, which has been adjusted from a year-over-year increase of 6% to just 1%. This revision is attributed to weak home appliance sales observed in October and November, which are not expected to recover in December. JPMorgan estimates that sales of electronics and home appliances for JD-SW will decline by more than 10% year-over-year, leading them to doubt that JD Retail's revenue growth will surpass the overall industry growth in online physical goods sales.
Nomura
Buy
downgrade
$150 -> $144
2025-11-24
Reason
Nomura
Price Target
$150 -> $144
2025-11-24
downgrade
Buy
Reason
The analyst rating from Nomura is a Buy for JD-SW (09618.HK), despite the reduction in forecasts for revenue and EPS for FY25/26. The reasons for the rating include the acknowledgment of JD Retail's current challenges, such as a slowdown in revenue growth and declining profit margins, as well as headwinds like high base effects, reduced trade-in subsidies, and advanced consumption of electronic goods. The target price was lowered from HKD150 to HKD144 to reflect these challenges, but the overall rating remains positive, indicating confidence in the company's long-term potential despite short-term difficulties.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
