CLSA: CHOW TAI FOOK (01929.HK) Reports Impressive 3FQ26 Results, Anticipates Challenges During Lunar New Year; Rating Maintained at Hold
Sales Performance: Chow Tai Fook reported strong same-store sales growth of 21.4% in mainland China and 14.3% in Hong Kong & Macau for 3FQ26, prompting a slight adjustment in sales and profit margin guidance for FY2026.
Future Projections: The company anticipates low- to mid-single-digit YoY growth in same-store sales during the Lunar New Year, while tightening January discounts and increasing marketing expenditures to boost February promotions.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Analyst Views on 01929
About the author
Cheng Yu-tung Family Trusts Raise Ownership in CTFE's Parent Company to 90.52%
Shareholding Changes: The Cheng Yu-tung family's two trusts increased their stake in Chow Tai Fook (Holding) Ltd (CTFH) from 81.03% to 90.52% as of December 5, 2025, marking a total increase of 9.49 percentage points.
Short Selling Activity: As of January 26, 2026, short selling for CTFH was reported at $22.47 million with a ratio of 17.75%, while Chow Tai Fook (01929.HK) had a short selling amount of $185.95 million and a ratio of 52.579%.
Internal Control Structure: The shareholding disclosure on December 5, 2025, indicated changes in the internal control structure of CTFH within the family trust, aligning with the recent shareholding adjustments.
Market Outlook: JPMorgan has upgraded NEW WORLD DEV to Neutral, anticipating a rebound in developers' earnings in the next fiscal year.
Jewelry and Gold Mining Stocks Soar as Gold and Silver Prices Reach Record Highs; LAOPU GOLD Jumps 14% to Six-Month Peak
Gold and Silver Prices Surge: Gold futures in New York reached a historic high of USD5,080.1 per ounce, while silver futures peaked at USD107.925, reflecting significant increases in precious metal prices.
Jewelry Stocks Performance: Hong Kong-listed jewelry stocks, particularly LAOPU GOLD, experienced substantial gains, with expectations of strong sales during the Spring Festival due to high gold prices and promotional activities.
Gold Miners Thrive: Gold mining companies like ZIJIN MINING and ZHAOJIN MINING saw their stock prices rise significantly, benefiting from the increasing gold prices and high trading volumes.
Short Selling Activity: Various stocks in the jewelry and mining sectors showed notable short selling ratios, indicating a mix of investor sentiment and market speculation amidst the rising prices of gold and silver.
Jewelry and Gold Stocks Perform Well; LAOPU GOLD Rises Approximately 7%; LUK FOOK HOLD Reaches 7.5-Year High; CHOW TAI FOOK Remains Weak
Gold and Silver Prices Surge: Gold prices are nearing US$5,000 per ounce, with spot gold last quoted at US$4,944.08, while spot silver reached US$98.64 per ounce, reflecting significant increases in both metals.
Impact on Jewelry Stocks: The rise in gold prices has led to increased market expectations for gold product prices, positively affecting jewelry stocks in Hong Kong, particularly LAOPU GOLD, which saw a notable increase in its share price.
JPM Increases Target Price for CHOW TAI FOOK (01929.HK) to $17, Maintains Overweight Rating
Strong Retail Sales Growth: CHOW TAI FOOK's retail sales value (RSV) for 3FQ26 increased by 18% year-on-year, surpassing forecasts, driven by an improved product mix and higher gold prices.
Positive Profit Margin Outlook: JPMorgan raised its earnings forecasts for CHOW TAI FOOK for 2026-2028 by 2-6% and increased the target price from $16.4 to $17, maintaining an Overweight rating due to favorable market conditions.
NWD Allegedly Experiencing Large Tenant Departures at 11 SKIES; Airport Authority Engaging with Alternative Developers for Collaboration
Tenant Terminations at 11 SKIES: Numerous tenants, including Chow Tai Fook, Uniqlo, and LUK FOOK HOLD, have terminated their leases at the 11 SKIES mall near Hong Kong International Airport, amid significant short selling activity.
Impact of Terminal 2 Delays: Delays in the construction of the airport's Terminal 2 are expected to postpone the opening of 11 SKIES to at least mid-year, further affecting its prospects.
NWD's Response: New World Development (NWD) has not commented on the tenant terminations, while the Airport Authority Hong Kong is considering alternative operational arrangements with other developers.
Market Activity: The short selling ratios for Chow Tai Fook and other associated companies indicate a lack of confidence in their performance, with Chow Tai Fook experiencing a short selling ratio of 47.384%.
Macquarie Increases CHOW TAI FOOK's Target Price to HKD19.8 with Outperform Rating
Sales Growth: CHOW TAI FOOK reported significant same-store sales growth in mainland China, increasing from 7.6% and 8.6% in 2FQ26 to 21.4% and 26.3% in 3FQ26, with Hong Kong and Macau also seeing an increase from 6.2% to 14.3%.
Future Expectations: The management anticipates low- to mid-single-digit growth in same-store sales during the upcoming Lunar New Year due to a higher base and has revised its full-year revenue and same-store sales growth guidance to low-mid single digits and mid-high single digits, respectively.
Analyst Ratings: CLSA maintained a "Hold" rating for CHOW TAI FOOK, acknowledging strong 3FQ26 results but cautioning about potential challenges during the Lunar New Year.
Target Price Adjustment: Macquarie raised its target price for CHOW TAI FOOK by 5.9% from HKD18.7 to HKD19.8 while keeping its "Outperform" rating unchanged.
Cheng Yu-tung Family Trusts Raise Ownership in CTFE's Parent Company to 90.52%
Shareholding Changes: The Cheng Yu-tung family's two trusts increased their stake in Chow Tai Fook (Holding) Ltd (CTFH) from 81.03% to 90.52% as of December 5, 2025, marking a total increase of 9.49 percentage points.
Short Selling Activity: As of January 26, 2026, short selling for CTFH was reported at $22.47 million with a ratio of 17.75%, while Chow Tai Fook (01929.HK) had a short selling amount of $185.95 million and a ratio of 52.579%.
Internal Control Structure: The shareholding disclosure on December 5, 2025, indicated changes in the internal control structure of CTFH within the family trust, aligning with the recent shareholding adjustments.
Market Outlook: JPMorgan has upgraded NEW WORLD DEV to Neutral, anticipating a rebound in developers' earnings in the next fiscal year.
Jewelry and Gold Mining Stocks Soar as Gold and Silver Prices Reach Record Highs; LAOPU GOLD Jumps 14% to Six-Month Peak
Gold and Silver Prices Surge: Gold futures in New York reached a historic high of USD5,080.1 per ounce, while silver futures peaked at USD107.925, reflecting significant increases in precious metal prices.
Jewelry Stocks Performance: Hong Kong-listed jewelry stocks, particularly LAOPU GOLD, experienced substantial gains, with expectations of strong sales during the Spring Festival due to high gold prices and promotional activities.
Gold Miners Thrive: Gold mining companies like ZIJIN MINING and ZHAOJIN MINING saw their stock prices rise significantly, benefiting from the increasing gold prices and high trading volumes.
Short Selling Activity: Various stocks in the jewelry and mining sectors showed notable short selling ratios, indicating a mix of investor sentiment and market speculation amidst the rising prices of gold and silver.
Jewelry and Gold Stocks Perform Well; LAOPU GOLD Rises Approximately 7%; LUK FOOK HOLD Reaches 7.5-Year High; CHOW TAI FOOK Remains Weak
Gold and Silver Prices Surge: Gold prices are nearing US$5,000 per ounce, with spot gold last quoted at US$4,944.08, while spot silver reached US$98.64 per ounce, reflecting significant increases in both metals.
Impact on Jewelry Stocks: The rise in gold prices has led to increased market expectations for gold product prices, positively affecting jewelry stocks in Hong Kong, particularly LAOPU GOLD, which saw a notable increase in its share price.
JPM Increases Target Price for CHOW TAI FOOK (01929.HK) to $17, Maintains Overweight Rating
Strong Retail Sales Growth: CHOW TAI FOOK's retail sales value (RSV) for 3FQ26 increased by 18% year-on-year, surpassing forecasts, driven by an improved product mix and higher gold prices.
Positive Profit Margin Outlook: JPMorgan raised its earnings forecasts for CHOW TAI FOOK for 2026-2028 by 2-6% and increased the target price from $16.4 to $17, maintaining an Overweight rating due to favorable market conditions.
NWD Allegedly Experiencing Large Tenant Departures at 11 SKIES; Airport Authority Engaging with Alternative Developers for Collaboration
Tenant Terminations at 11 SKIES: Numerous tenants, including Chow Tai Fook, Uniqlo, and LUK FOOK HOLD, have terminated their leases at the 11 SKIES mall near Hong Kong International Airport, amid significant short selling activity.
Impact of Terminal 2 Delays: Delays in the construction of the airport's Terminal 2 are expected to postpone the opening of 11 SKIES to at least mid-year, further affecting its prospects.
NWD's Response: New World Development (NWD) has not commented on the tenant terminations, while the Airport Authority Hong Kong is considering alternative operational arrangements with other developers.
Market Activity: The short selling ratios for Chow Tai Fook and other associated companies indicate a lack of confidence in their performance, with Chow Tai Fook experiencing a short selling ratio of 47.384%.
Macquarie Increases CHOW TAI FOOK's Target Price to HKD19.8 with Outperform Rating
Sales Growth: CHOW TAI FOOK reported significant same-store sales growth in mainland China, increasing from 7.6% and 8.6% in 2FQ26 to 21.4% and 26.3% in 3FQ26, with Hong Kong and Macau also seeing an increase from 6.2% to 14.3%.
Future Expectations: The management anticipates low- to mid-single-digit growth in same-store sales during the upcoming Lunar New Year due to a higher base and has revised its full-year revenue and same-store sales growth guidance to low-mid single digits and mid-high single digits, respectively.
Analyst Ratings: CLSA maintained a "Hold" rating for CHOW TAI FOOK, acknowledging strong 3FQ26 results but cautioning about potential challenges during the Lunar New Year.
Target Price Adjustment: Macquarie raised its target price for CHOW TAI FOOK by 5.9% from HKD18.7 to HKD19.8 while keeping its "Outperform" rating unchanged.
