Citi Report: Consistent Travel in China During New Year Holiday; Cross-Border Travel Data Indicates Robust Performance

Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst

00780+0.34%

09961+0.17%

Source: aastocks

Updated: 2d ago

0mins

Source: aastocks

Tourism Statistics: During the 2026 New Year holiday, domestic tourism in China reached 142 million visitors and generated RMB84.79 billion in revenue, showing a CAGR of 2.6% and 3.1% compared to 2024.
Spending Trends: The average spending per person decreased by 1% to RMB597 compared to 2024, indicating a slight decline in individual expenditure.
Cross-Border Travel Performance: While domestic travel remained stable, cross-border travel showed strong growth, suggesting a shift in travel preferences.
Future Expectations: Citi Research anticipates a more significant performance during the upcoming Spring Festival, which will last nine days, and maintains a Buy rating for TRIP.COM-S and TONGCHENGTRAVEL stocks.

00780

$23.96+Infinity%1D

Analyst Views on 00780

Wall Street analysts forecast 00780 stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for 00780 is USD with a low forecast of USD and a high forecast of USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

0 Analyst Rating

0 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Current: 23.880

Low

Averages

High

Current: 23.880

Low

Averages

High

Citi

Citi Research

maintain

2026-01-05

New

Reason

Citi

Citi Research

Price Target

2026-01-05

New

maintain

Reason

Citi Research maintained a "Buy" rating for TRIP.COM-S and TONGCHENGTRAVEL based on the stability of domestic travel during the 2026 New Year holiday and the expectation of stronger performance during the upcoming Spring Festival, which will last nine days—one day longer than in 2025. This anticipation of increased travel activity during the Spring Festival contributed to their positive outlook on these stocks.

Morgan Stanley

Overweight

maintain

$29

2025-11-26

Reason

Morgan Stanley

Price Target

$29

2025-11-26

maintain

Overweight

Reason

Morgan Stanley maintained an Overweight rating on TONGCHENGTRAVEL due to the company's 3Q25 results slightly exceeding expectations. The revenue surpassed forecasts by 1%, driven by a 15% year-over-year growth in the core online travel agency (OTA) business, which outperformed the domestic industry level. Additionally, TONGCHENGTRAVEL achieved a gross margin of 65.7%, which was 1 percentage point higher than Morgan Stanley's forecast. Despite increased marketing expenses, these were offset by a reduction in general administrative expenses, leading to a net profit that was 3% above expectations and an improvement in profit margin by 1 percentage point year-over-year.

HSBC Global Research

maintain

$26

2025-11-26

Reason

HSBC Global Research

Price Target

$26

2025-11-26

maintain

Reason

The analyst rating for TONGCHENGTRAVEL (00780.HK) is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of $26 due to the company's 3Q25 results being in line with expectations. The core online travel agency (OTA) business showed a growth of 14.9%, driven by a 15% increase in hotel booking revenue. Although the adjusted core OTA business profit margin was slightly below the broker's estimation, the adjusted net profit exceeded expectations, indicating overall positive performance. HSBC Global Research favors online travel platforms like TONGCHENGTRAVEL over airlines, which supports their bullish outlook.

CICC

Outperform

maintain

$28

2025-10-22

Reason

CICC

Price Target

$28

2025-10-22

maintain

Outperform

Reason

The analyst rating from CICC for TONGCHENGTRAVEL (00780.HK) is maintained at "Outperform" with a target price of $28. This rating is based on the expectation that the company's 3Q25 revenue will increase by 9% year-over-year to RMB5.45 billion, driven by a 14% rise in core OTA revenue to RMB4.59 billion, despite ongoing pressures in the vacation business. Additionally, CICC has largely maintained its revenue and profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, which supports their positive outlook on the stock.

About the author

Emily J. Thompson

Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.

Citi Report: Consistent Travel in China During New Year Holiday; Cross-Border Travel Data Indicates Robust Performance

Analyst Views on 00780

About the author

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