Restructuring Plan: CHINA SHENHUA has announced a restructuring plan that excludes its e-commerce company from the acquisition proposal, while keeping other targets unchanged, with a total transaction price of RMB133.598 billion.
Shareholding Increase: Following the transaction, CHN Energy's shareholding in CHINA SHENHUA will increase from 69.52% to 71.48%, and the company plans to raise up to RMB20 billion through an A-share placement.
Market Valuation: The transaction price is slightly below the average market price-to-book ratio for A-share thermal coal, indicating a reasonable valuation amidst scarce high-quality coal assets domestically.
Analyst Outlook: CICC maintains an Outperform rating for CHINA SHENHUA, projecting a target price of HKD45, citing expectations for improved integration, cost reduction, and efficiency enhancements.
Wall Street analysts forecast 01088 stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for 01088 is USD with a low forecast of USD and a high forecast of USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast 01088 stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for 01088 is USD with a low forecast of USD and a high forecast of USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Current: 41.380
Low
Averages
High
Current: 41.380
Low
Averages
High
Citi Research
Citi
maintain
$45.1
2025-12-23
Reason
Citi Research
Citi
Price Target
$45.1
AI Analysis
2025-12-23
maintain
Reason
The analyst rating for CHINA SHENHUA (01088.HK) is a "Buy" due to the belief that the recent asset acquisition plan will significantly enhance the company's operational performance. Citi Research noted that while the proposed acquisition valuation appears higher than the current valuation, domestic investors are likely to focus on the company's growth potential and dividend potential following the transaction. The target price set by the broker is $45.1.
CICC
CICC
Outperform
maintain
$45
2025-12-22
Reason
CICC
CICC
Price Target
$45
2025-12-22
maintain
Outperform
Reason
The analyst rating for CHINA SHENHUA (01088.HK) is based on several key factors outlined in the CICC research report:
1. Restructuring Plan: The company has announced a restructuring plan that maintains the equity of other acquisition targets while excluding the e-commerce company. This indicates a strategic focus on core assets.
2. Transaction Pricing: The total transaction price of RMB133.598 billion is structured with a 30% share and 70% cash payment ratio, with the issue price per share set at RMB29.4. This pricing is slightly below the market average P/B ratio of 1.68 times for A-share thermal coal, suggesting a reasonable valuation.
3. Scarcity of High-Quality Assets: CICC notes that high-quality coal assets are scarce domestically, and CHINA SHENHUA's acquisition represents a significant increase in resource volume at a reasonable price.
4. Operational Improvements: The broker is optimistic about the company's efforts to strengthen integration, reduce costs, and enhance efficiency, which are expected to lead to a re-rating of the stock.
5. Capital Management: CICC expects CHINA SHENHUA to effectively balance capital expenditure with high dividend commitments, indicating a strong financial management strategy.
Based on these factors, CICC has maintained an Outperform rating for CHINA SHENHUA, with a target price of HKD45.
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BOCI
Hold
maintain
2025-10-30
Reason
BOCI
Price Target
2025-10-30
maintain
Hold
Reason
The analyst rating for CHINA SHENHUA (01088.HK) was reiterated as a Hold by BOCI due to a 6% year-over-year decline in net profit for 3Q25, despite a 13% quarter-over-quarter increase, which brought the profit to RMB14.7 billion. The report highlighted that the strong performance of its power business contributed significantly to the quarter-over-quarter growth. Additionally, BOCI raised its target price from HKD39.48 to HKD42.5, reflecting a cautious optimism based on the company's performance.
BofA Securities
BofA Securities
Neutral
maintain
$32 -> $38
2025-08-19
Reason
BofA Securities
BofA Securities
Price Target
$32 -> $38
2025-08-19
maintain
Neutral
Reason
The analyst rating from BofA Securities is maintained at Neutral for the coal industry due to several factors:
1. Price Decline: The prices of thermal and coking coal have significantly declined by about 50% from 2022, indicating a challenging market environment.
2. Supply and Demand Dynamics: There is a slowdown in supply growth and reduced coal imports, which, combined with strong coal demand, is expected to support thermal coal prices.
3. Future Price Stabilization: The report suggests that prices are estimated to stabilize in the second half of 2025 through 2026, which influences the outlook for the industry.
4. Earnings Forecast Adjustments: While the broker raised earnings forecasts for specific companies like CHINA SHENHUA and YANKUANG ENERGY, the overall neutral rating reflects a cautious approach given the current market conditions.
Overall, the neutral view indicates a balanced perspective on the coal industry's potential, considering both the challenges and the expected stabilization in prices.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
