CICC Projects 7% Revenue Increase and 15% Decline in Non-GAAP Net Profit for NTES-S in Q4 2025
CICC's Revenue Forecast: CICC predicts that NTES-S (09999.HK) will see a 7% year-over-year revenue growth in 4Q25, reaching RMB28.5 billion, slightly below the market expectation of RMB28.8 billion.
Profit Decline Estimate: The non-GAAP net profit for NTES-S is expected to decline by 15% year-over-year to RMB8.25 billion, which is also below the market forecast of RMB9.23 billion.
Rating and Target Price: CICC maintains an Outperform rating for NTES-S, setting a target price of HKD275.
Market Sentiment: Nomura also anticipates a 4% year-over-year revenue increase for NetEase (NTES.US) in 4Q25, which is below market consensus, while keeping a Buy rating.
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JPM Maintains Overweight Rating for NTES-S (09999.HK) with Target Price of $295
Current Share Price Movement: NTES-S (09999.HK) has seen a decline of 10% year-to-date, with a recent drop of 1.973%, and a significant short selling activity amounting to $235.33M.
Concerns and Valuation: Key concerns affecting NTES-S include increased VAT, competition from Google Genie 3, and a lack of immediate catalysts; however, its current PE ratio of 13x is considered attractive, being 25% lower than its 5-year average.
Analyst Recommendations: JPMorgan has reiterated NTES-S as a top pick in the Chinese digital entertainment sector, maintaining an Overweight rating and setting a target price of $295.
Market Context: Broader market concerns include regulatory and tax policies impacting Chinese dotcoms, with this year seen as a strategic turning point for major companies in the sector.
<Study> Ratings and Target Prices for NTES-S (09999.HK) (Table)
Broker Ratings for NTES-S (09999.HK): Eleven brokers have provided ratings and target prices for NTES-S, with JPMorgan rating it as Overweight at HK$295, while other notable ratings include Buy from HSBC Research at HK$289 and UBS at HK$288.6.
Broker Ratings for NetEase (NTES.US): Seventeen brokers have rated NetEase, with JPMorgan giving an Overweight rating at US$190, and several others, including HSBC Research and UBS, rating it as Buy at US$185.
Market Performance: NTES-S has experienced a short selling of $272.16M with a ratio of 11.248%, indicating significant market activity.
Future Revenue Expectations: Citi anticipates that NTES-S will see a 9%+ year-over-year growth in online game revenue for Q4 2025, maintaining a Buy rating.
Brokers Anticipate a 6%+ Decline in NTES-S 4Q25 Adjusted Net Profit, with Focus on Gaming Business Sales and Guidance
Financial Results Announcement: NTES-S is set to announce its 4Q25 financial results on Wednesday, with expectations of a non-GAAP net profit decline of 0.4-13.5% YoY, estimated between RMB8.379-9.643 billion.
Market Predictions: Eight brokers predict a median non-GAAP net profit of RMB9.03 billion for NTES-S, reflecting a 6.7% YoY decline from RMB9.682 billion in the previous year.
Investor Focus: Investors are particularly interested in management's guidance on the gaming business and responses to Google's recent launch of the Genie 3 world model, which raises concerns about the gaming industry's future.
Short Selling Activity: NTES-S has experienced significant short selling, with a total of $272.16 million and a short selling ratio of 11.248%.
G Sachs Maintains Buy Rating on NTES-S While Lowering Price Target and Earnings Projections
Goldman Sachs Report: Goldman Sachs has analyzed the weak stock performance of NTES-S (09999.HK), attributing it to concerns over slowing game sell-through growth and high profit margin bases for upcoming quarters.
Revenue and Earnings Forecasts: The firm has slightly reduced its revenue forecasts for NTES-S by about 1% for 2025-27 and lowered earnings forecasts by approximately 3%, reflecting a slowdown in profit margin expansion.
Stock Rating and Target Price: Despite the adjustments, NTES-S maintains a "Buy" rating, although its target price has been decreased from HKD266 to HKD264.
Market Context: The stock is currently under pressure with significant short selling activity, indicating market skepticism about its near-term performance.
<Research>BOCI Maintains Buy Rating on NTES-S but Lowers Target Price to HKD250; Last Quarter's Results Expected to Fall Short
4Q25 Revenue and Profit Expectations: BOCI forecasts a 6% year-over-year growth in NTES-S's core gaming revenue for 4Q25, with an adjusted net profit of RMB8.4 billion, which is lower than market expectations by 5% and 9%, respectively.
Investment Rating and Target Price: Despite the lower profit expectations, BOCI maintains a Buy rating on NTES-S and has adjusted its target price to HKD250, considering a likely special dividend and potential inclusion in the HK Stock Connect by 2027.
Citi Projects Over 9% Year-Over-Year Growth in NTES-S (09999.HK) 4Q25 Online Game Revenue, Maintains Buy Rating
4Q25 Results Announcement: NTES-S (09999.HK) will announce its 4Q25 results on February 11, with expectations of performance in line with market consensus, driven by strong sales from its flagship game and other titles.
Revenue and Profit Forecasts: Citi Research predicts a 6.5% YoY revenue growth to RMB28.5 billion for NTES-S in 4Q25, with a non-GAAP net profit of RMB8.8 billion, slightly below market expectations.
1Q26 Projections: Looking ahead to 1Q26, total revenue is expected to increase by 3.3% to RMB29.8 billion, with online game revenue projected to grow by 2.8% YoY.
Target Price and Rating: Citi Research maintains a target price of US$161 for NTES-S' US stock and keeps its Buy rating unchanged, reflecting confidence in the company's earnings potential.
JPM Maintains Overweight Rating for NTES-S (09999.HK) with Target Price of $295
Current Share Price Movement: NTES-S (09999.HK) has seen a decline of 10% year-to-date, with a recent drop of 1.973%, and a significant short selling activity amounting to $235.33M.
Concerns and Valuation: Key concerns affecting NTES-S include increased VAT, competition from Google Genie 3, and a lack of immediate catalysts; however, its current PE ratio of 13x is considered attractive, being 25% lower than its 5-year average.
Analyst Recommendations: JPMorgan has reiterated NTES-S as a top pick in the Chinese digital entertainment sector, maintaining an Overweight rating and setting a target price of $295.
Market Context: Broader market concerns include regulatory and tax policies impacting Chinese dotcoms, with this year seen as a strategic turning point for major companies in the sector.
<Study> Ratings and Target Prices for NTES-S (09999.HK) (Table)
Broker Ratings for NTES-S (09999.HK): Eleven brokers have provided ratings and target prices for NTES-S, with JPMorgan rating it as Overweight at HK$295, while other notable ratings include Buy from HSBC Research at HK$289 and UBS at HK$288.6.
Broker Ratings for NetEase (NTES.US): Seventeen brokers have rated NetEase, with JPMorgan giving an Overweight rating at US$190, and several others, including HSBC Research and UBS, rating it as Buy at US$185.
Market Performance: NTES-S has experienced a short selling of $272.16M with a ratio of 11.248%, indicating significant market activity.
Future Revenue Expectations: Citi anticipates that NTES-S will see a 9%+ year-over-year growth in online game revenue for Q4 2025, maintaining a Buy rating.
Brokers Anticipate a 6%+ Decline in NTES-S 4Q25 Adjusted Net Profit, with Focus on Gaming Business Sales and Guidance
Financial Results Announcement: NTES-S is set to announce its 4Q25 financial results on Wednesday, with expectations of a non-GAAP net profit decline of 0.4-13.5% YoY, estimated between RMB8.379-9.643 billion.
Market Predictions: Eight brokers predict a median non-GAAP net profit of RMB9.03 billion for NTES-S, reflecting a 6.7% YoY decline from RMB9.682 billion in the previous year.
Investor Focus: Investors are particularly interested in management's guidance on the gaming business and responses to Google's recent launch of the Genie 3 world model, which raises concerns about the gaming industry's future.
Short Selling Activity: NTES-S has experienced significant short selling, with a total of $272.16 million and a short selling ratio of 11.248%.
G Sachs Maintains Buy Rating on NTES-S While Lowering Price Target and Earnings Projections
Goldman Sachs Report: Goldman Sachs has analyzed the weak stock performance of NTES-S (09999.HK), attributing it to concerns over slowing game sell-through growth and high profit margin bases for upcoming quarters.
Revenue and Earnings Forecasts: The firm has slightly reduced its revenue forecasts for NTES-S by about 1% for 2025-27 and lowered earnings forecasts by approximately 3%, reflecting a slowdown in profit margin expansion.
Stock Rating and Target Price: Despite the adjustments, NTES-S maintains a "Buy" rating, although its target price has been decreased from HKD266 to HKD264.
Market Context: The stock is currently under pressure with significant short selling activity, indicating market skepticism about its near-term performance.
<Research>BOCI Maintains Buy Rating on NTES-S but Lowers Target Price to HKD250; Last Quarter's Results Expected to Fall Short
4Q25 Revenue and Profit Expectations: BOCI forecasts a 6% year-over-year growth in NTES-S's core gaming revenue for 4Q25, with an adjusted net profit of RMB8.4 billion, which is lower than market expectations by 5% and 9%, respectively.
Investment Rating and Target Price: Despite the lower profit expectations, BOCI maintains a Buy rating on NTES-S and has adjusted its target price to HKD250, considering a likely special dividend and potential inclusion in the HK Stock Connect by 2027.
Citi Projects Over 9% Year-Over-Year Growth in NTES-S (09999.HK) 4Q25 Online Game Revenue, Maintains Buy Rating
4Q25 Results Announcement: NTES-S (09999.HK) will announce its 4Q25 results on February 11, with expectations of performance in line with market consensus, driven by strong sales from its flagship game and other titles.
Revenue and Profit Forecasts: Citi Research predicts a 6.5% YoY revenue growth to RMB28.5 billion for NTES-S in 4Q25, with a non-GAAP net profit of RMB8.8 billion, slightly below market expectations.
1Q26 Projections: Looking ahead to 1Q26, total revenue is expected to increase by 3.3% to RMB29.8 billion, with online game revenue projected to grow by 2.8% YoY.
Target Price and Rating: Citi Research maintains a target price of US$161 for NTES-S' US stock and keeps its Buy rating unchanged, reflecting confidence in the company's earnings potential.
