China Develops Strategy to Block U.S. Military Access to Rare-Earth Materials, Reports WSJ
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Nov 11 2025
0mins
Should l Buy MP?
China's Export Restrictions: China is set to restrict the export of rare earths and other materials to the U.S. by implementing a system that excludes companies linked to the U.S. military.
Validated End-User System: The new "validated end-user" system aims to facilitate the export of rare-earth materials while ensuring they do not reach U.S. military suppliers, aligning with Xi Jinping's commitments.
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Analyst Views on MP
Wall Street analysts forecast MP stock price to rise
11 Analyst Rating
11 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 60.580
Low
55.27
Averages
76.13
High
94.00
Current: 60.580
Low
55.27
Averages
76.13
High
94.00
About MP
MP Materials Corp. produces specialty materials that are vital inputs for electrification and other advanced technologies. The Company owns and operates the Mountain Pass Rare Earth Mine and Processing Facility (Mountain Pass) located in California. It is also developing a rare earth metal, alloy and magnet manufacturing facility in Fort Worth, Texas (Independence Facility). The Company’s segments include Materials and Magnetics. The Materials segment operates Mountain Pass, which produces refined rare earth products as well as rare earth concentrate and related products. The Materials segment primarily generates revenue from sales of rare earth concentrate, primarily sold for further distribution to a single, principal customer in China, and sales of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide and metal, primarily sold to customers in Japan, South Korea, and broader Asia. The Magnetics segment operates the Independence Facility, where it produces magnetic precursor products.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
MP Materials Positioned for Growth Amid Domestic Supply Push
- Strong Stock Performance: By the end of 2025, MP Materials' stock surged 224%, peaking at a 440% increase in October, reflecting strong market confidence in its rare-earth mining and permanent magnet manufacturing business, despite a subsequent market pullback that still left it outperforming the broader market.
- Defense Department Investment: In July 2025, the U.S. Department of Defense invested $400 million in MP Materials, becoming its largest shareholder and entering a public-private partnership that guarantees the purchase of 100% of the magnets produced at its new factory for 10 years, with a price floor of $110 per kilogram, leading to a stock price increase of over 100% in July.
- Critical Market Positioning: MP Materials plays a vital role in the U.S. rare-earth supply chain, particularly in tech, defense, and clean energy sectors; however, the company faces execution risks, especially regarding the construction and operation of its new factory, targeting a production start in 2028 without a confirmed location yet.
- Significant Valuation Risks: Currently, MP Materials trades at a price-to-sales ratio of 43, significantly higher than the average of 3.8 for metals and mining companies, indicating that while its long-term outlook is promising, it may experience volatility in the short term, necessitating careful consideration from investors regarding the risks associated with such a high valuation.
See More
Critical Metals Stock Dips Below $10 Amid NATO Tensions
- Stock Volatility: Critical Metals (CRML) has seen its stock price dip below $10 after trading above $10 for over a month, opening at $10.50 today but currently down 8.3%, reflecting market unease about its future prospects.
- Market Reaction: Despite no negative news explaining the decline, investor anxiety is heightened by President Trump's aggressive rhetoric regarding Greenland's acquisition and NATO's military actions in the region, leading to a bearish market sentiment.
- Project Valuation: The Tanbreez Rare Earth Project, currently under development by Critical Metals, was assessed in March 2025 to have a before-tax net present value between $2.7 billion and $3.4 billion, indicating significant project potential, though geopolitical tensions may undermine investor confidence.
- Investor Alternatives: With Operation Arctic Sentry set to commence, conservative investors may prefer lower-risk rare earth investment opportunities like MP Materials stock to avoid the volatility associated with Critical Metals shares.
See More
NATO Conducts Military Exercises in Greenland Amid Tensions
- Stock Price Decline: Critical Metals (NASDAQ: CRML) has fallen back into single-digit territory after trading above $10 for over a month, opening at $10.50 today but currently trading below $10, reflecting an 8.3% drop that raises investor concerns about its future performance.
- Project Valuation: The Tanbreez Rare Earth Project being developed by Critical Metals has a preliminary economic assessment completed in March 2025 indicating a before-tax net present value between $2.7 billion and $3.4 billion, which continues to attract investor interest despite market volatility.
- NATO Military Operations: NATO has launched a new mission, Arctic Sentry, in Greenland to counter President Trump's aggressive stance on the territory's acquisition, with Sweden announcing the deployment of fighter jets and ground troops, indicating an increase in NATO's military presence in the region.
- Investment Recommendations: Despite the volatility surrounding Critical Metals, analysts suggest that conservative investors consider MP Materials as a lower-risk rare earth investment option, particularly in light of the current market uncertainties that may lead to a preference for more stable investment opportunities.
See More
USA Rare Earth Stock Soars 83% Year-to-Date Following Government Collaboration
- Stock Surge: USA Rare Earth's stock has surged 83% year-to-date, with an impressive 88.4% increase in January, reflecting strong market confidence following the company's collaboration agreement with the U.S. government, which is expected to drive future growth.
- Funding Insights: The company raised $3.1 billion through a combination of a $1.3 billion senior secured loan and $277 million from equity sales, significantly derisking its business model and boosting management's medium-term operational expectations.
- Production Capacity Expansion: With the new agreement, USA Rare Earth plans to ramp up production to 27,500 tonnes per annum of metal and 10,000 tonnes of rare earth magnets by 2030, projecting revenues of $2.6 billion and EBITDA of $1.2 billion, indicating a robust financial outlook.
- Strategic Importance: Despite political risks and operational hurdles, the company's commitment to securing a domestic supply of critical rare earth materials underscores its strategic significance in the market, potentially offering long-term returns for investors.
See More
CME Group Plans to Launch World's First Rare Earth Futures Contract
- Rare Earth Futures Initiative: CME Group is considering launching the world's first rare earth futures contract aimed at providing producers, consumers, and financiers with tools to hedge against price volatility, potentially unlocking funding for Western mining and processing projects.
- Focus on Critical Elements: The contract would be tied to neodymium and praseodymium (NdPR), which are essential for electric vehicle motors, wind turbines, and advanced weapon systems, highlighting their significance in modern technology.
- Enhancing Market Transparency: By creating a transparent and liquid pricing benchmark, CME aims to disrupt China's dominance in the rare earth market and reduce reliance on Chinese pricing, thereby increasing market competitiveness.
- Strategic Industry Implications: In the context of escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, the launch of a rare earth futures contract is seen as a crucial step to address the industry's financing challenges, especially following China's export controls, which have heightened the demand for stable pricing mechanisms.
See More
MP Materials Stock Soars 224% in 2025 Amid Strategic Partnerships
- Stock Performance: By the end of 2025, MP Materials' shares surged 224%, peaking at a 440% increase in October before a market sell-off, with the current price at $62.34, indicating strong market performance.
- DoD Investment: In July 2025, the Department of Defense invested $400 million in MP Materials, becoming its largest shareholder and entering a public-private partnership to purchase 100% of magnets produced at a new factory for 10 years, guaranteeing a price floor of $110 per kilogram.
- Market Outlook: MP Materials is strategically positioned in the rare-earth sector, where magnets are essential for technology, defense, and clean energy, yet the U.S. reliance on China poses geopolitical risks, making future demand growth critical for profitability.
- Execution Risks: While the agreement with the DoD offers a pathway to short-term profitability, it requires Congressional approval, and any shifts in government or budget priorities could jeopardize the deal; additionally, the company faces execution risks in launching a new facility targeted for 2028.
See More
MP Materials Positioned for Growth Amid Domestic Supply Push
- Strong Stock Performance: By the end of 2025, MP Materials' stock surged 224%, peaking at a 440% increase in October, reflecting strong market confidence in its rare-earth mining and permanent magnet manufacturing business, despite a subsequent market pullback that still left it outperforming the broader market.
- Defense Department Investment: In July 2025, the U.S. Department of Defense invested $400 million in MP Materials, becoming its largest shareholder and entering a public-private partnership that guarantees the purchase of 100% of the magnets produced at its new factory for 10 years, with a price floor of $110 per kilogram, leading to a stock price increase of over 100% in July.
- Critical Market Positioning: MP Materials plays a vital role in the U.S. rare-earth supply chain, particularly in tech, defense, and clean energy sectors; however, the company faces execution risks, especially regarding the construction and operation of its new factory, targeting a production start in 2028 without a confirmed location yet.
- Significant Valuation Risks: Currently, MP Materials trades at a price-to-sales ratio of 43, significantly higher than the average of 3.8 for metals and mining companies, indicating that while its long-term outlook is promising, it may experience volatility in the short term, necessitating careful consideration from investors regarding the risks associated with such a high valuation.
See More
Critical Metals Stock Dips Below $10 Amid NATO Tensions
- Stock Volatility: Critical Metals (CRML) has seen its stock price dip below $10 after trading above $10 for over a month, opening at $10.50 today but currently down 8.3%, reflecting market unease about its future prospects.
- Market Reaction: Despite no negative news explaining the decline, investor anxiety is heightened by President Trump's aggressive rhetoric regarding Greenland's acquisition and NATO's military actions in the region, leading to a bearish market sentiment.
- Project Valuation: The Tanbreez Rare Earth Project, currently under development by Critical Metals, was assessed in March 2025 to have a before-tax net present value between $2.7 billion and $3.4 billion, indicating significant project potential, though geopolitical tensions may undermine investor confidence.
- Investor Alternatives: With Operation Arctic Sentry set to commence, conservative investors may prefer lower-risk rare earth investment opportunities like MP Materials stock to avoid the volatility associated with Critical Metals shares.
See More
NATO Conducts Military Exercises in Greenland Amid Tensions
- Stock Price Decline: Critical Metals (NASDAQ: CRML) has fallen back into single-digit territory after trading above $10 for over a month, opening at $10.50 today but currently trading below $10, reflecting an 8.3% drop that raises investor concerns about its future performance.
- Project Valuation: The Tanbreez Rare Earth Project being developed by Critical Metals has a preliminary economic assessment completed in March 2025 indicating a before-tax net present value between $2.7 billion and $3.4 billion, which continues to attract investor interest despite market volatility.
- NATO Military Operations: NATO has launched a new mission, Arctic Sentry, in Greenland to counter President Trump's aggressive stance on the territory's acquisition, with Sweden announcing the deployment of fighter jets and ground troops, indicating an increase in NATO's military presence in the region.
- Investment Recommendations: Despite the volatility surrounding Critical Metals, analysts suggest that conservative investors consider MP Materials as a lower-risk rare earth investment option, particularly in light of the current market uncertainties that may lead to a preference for more stable investment opportunities.
See More
USA Rare Earth Stock Soars 83% Year-to-Date Following Government Collaboration
- Stock Surge: USA Rare Earth's stock has surged 83% year-to-date, with an impressive 88.4% increase in January, reflecting strong market confidence following the company's collaboration agreement with the U.S. government, which is expected to drive future growth.
- Funding Insights: The company raised $3.1 billion through a combination of a $1.3 billion senior secured loan and $277 million from equity sales, significantly derisking its business model and boosting management's medium-term operational expectations.
- Production Capacity Expansion: With the new agreement, USA Rare Earth plans to ramp up production to 27,500 tonnes per annum of metal and 10,000 tonnes of rare earth magnets by 2030, projecting revenues of $2.6 billion and EBITDA of $1.2 billion, indicating a robust financial outlook.
- Strategic Importance: Despite political risks and operational hurdles, the company's commitment to securing a domestic supply of critical rare earth materials underscores its strategic significance in the market, potentially offering long-term returns for investors.
See More
CME Group Plans to Launch World's First Rare Earth Futures Contract
- Rare Earth Futures Initiative: CME Group is considering launching the world's first rare earth futures contract aimed at providing producers, consumers, and financiers with tools to hedge against price volatility, potentially unlocking funding for Western mining and processing projects.
- Focus on Critical Elements: The contract would be tied to neodymium and praseodymium (NdPR), which are essential for electric vehicle motors, wind turbines, and advanced weapon systems, highlighting their significance in modern technology.
- Enhancing Market Transparency: By creating a transparent and liquid pricing benchmark, CME aims to disrupt China's dominance in the rare earth market and reduce reliance on Chinese pricing, thereby increasing market competitiveness.
- Strategic Industry Implications: In the context of escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, the launch of a rare earth futures contract is seen as a crucial step to address the industry's financing challenges, especially following China's export controls, which have heightened the demand for stable pricing mechanisms.
See More
MP Materials Stock Soars 224% in 2025 Amid Strategic Partnerships
- Stock Performance: By the end of 2025, MP Materials' shares surged 224%, peaking at a 440% increase in October before a market sell-off, with the current price at $62.34, indicating strong market performance.
- DoD Investment: In July 2025, the Department of Defense invested $400 million in MP Materials, becoming its largest shareholder and entering a public-private partnership to purchase 100% of magnets produced at a new factory for 10 years, guaranteeing a price floor of $110 per kilogram.
- Market Outlook: MP Materials is strategically positioned in the rare-earth sector, where magnets are essential for technology, defense, and clean energy, yet the U.S. reliance on China poses geopolitical risks, making future demand growth critical for profitability.
- Execution Risks: While the agreement with the DoD offers a pathway to short-term profitability, it requires Congressional approval, and any shifts in government or budget priorities could jeopardize the deal; additionally, the company faces execution risks in launching a new facility targeted for 2028.
See More
