China Develops Strategy to Block U.S. Military Access to Rare-Earth Materials, Reports WSJ
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Nov 11 2025
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Should l Buy MP?
China's Export Restrictions: China is set to restrict the export of rare earths and other materials to the U.S. by implementing a system that excludes companies linked to the U.S. military.
Validated End-User System: The new "validated end-user" system aims to facilitate the export of rare-earth materials while ensuring they do not reach U.S. military suppliers, aligning with Xi Jinping's commitments.
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Analyst Views on MP
Wall Street analysts forecast MP stock price to rise
11 Analyst Rating
11 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 53.280
Low
55.27
Averages
76.13
High
94.00
Current: 53.280
Low
55.27
Averages
76.13
High
94.00
About MP
MP Materials Corp. produces specialty materials that are vital inputs for electrification and other advanced technologies. The Company owns and operates the Mountain Pass Rare Earth Mine and Processing Facility (Mountain Pass) located in California. It is also developing a rare earth metal, alloy and magnet manufacturing facility in Fort Worth, Texas (Independence Facility). The Company’s segments include Materials and Magnetics. The Materials segment operates Mountain Pass, which produces refined rare earth products as well as rare earth concentrate and related products. The Materials segment primarily generates revenue from sales of rare earth concentrate, primarily sold for further distribution to a single, principal customer in China, and sales of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide and metal, primarily sold to customers in Japan, South Korea, and broader Asia. The Magnetics segment operates the Independence Facility, where it produces magnetic precursor products.
About the author

Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
- Large-Scale Investment: MP Materials has announced a $1.25 billion investment to build a magnet manufacturing campus in Texas, expected to create 1,500 new jobs by 2028, significantly boosting the local economy.
- Capacity Expansion: The new '10X Facility' will increase MP Materials' annual production capacity of NdFeB magnets to approximately 10,000 metric tons, addressing the rising demand in sectors like electric vehicles and drones.
- Government Support Assurance: The project benefits from a long-term agreement with the U.S. Department of Defense, guaranteeing that 100% of the NdFeB magnets produced will be purchased in the first ten years, thereby reducing market risk and enhancing investment appeal.
- Optimistic Market Outlook: With the sharp increase in demand for rare-earth metals and NdFeB magnets, MP Materials' strategic positioning in domestic production is likely to provide a competitive edge in the future market, making it a focal point for investors.
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- Acquisition of Uranium Project: EagleOne Metals Corporation has signed a binding Letter of Intent to acquire the Poison Springs Uranium/Rare Earths Project in Utah for $50,000, covering 206.6 acres and previously showing mineralized intercepts across uranium, copper, and silver, indicating significant mineral potential in the region.
- Improved Market Conditions: With uranium prices nearing $92 per pound and the IEA projecting a 30% copper supply shortfall by 2035, EagleOne is well-positioned in the critical minerals investment landscape, especially as the U.S. government commits over $30 billion to secure supply chains.
- Diversified Mineral Portfolio: EagleOne also owns the Hébécourt Township property in Quebec, historically yielding over 200 million ounces of gold, and has a non-binding LOI with Surupampa Metals for a copper-gold asset in Peru, showcasing its strategic positioning across multiple countries and commodities.
- Financing and Market Capitalization: The company is pursuing a C$240,000 financing round, with a current market capitalization of approximately C$5 million, indicating that the market has yet to fully price in its potential value amid the structural deficits in uranium, copper, and rare earths, suggesting significant future growth opportunities.
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- Acquisition of Uranium Project: EagleOne Metals Corporation has signed a binding Letter of Intent to acquire the Poison Springs Uranium/Rare Earth Project in Utah for $50,000, covering 206.6 acres with historical drilling indicating mineralized intercepts across uranium, copper, silver, and other commodities, highlighting significant mineral potential in the region.
- Changing Market Dynamics: With uranium prices nearing $92 per pound and the IEA projecting a 30% copper supply shortfall by 2035, EagleOne is well-positioned in the critical minerals investment landscape, especially as the U.S. government has committed over $30 billion to secure supply chains for these essential resources.
- Diversified Mineral Portfolio: EagleOne's 100%-owned Hébécourt Township property in Quebec has historically produced over 200 million ounces of gold, and the adjacent Magusi West project has revealed gold anomalies up to 0.156 ppm, indicating strong potential across multiple mineral sectors.
- Financing and Market Positioning: EagleOne is pursuing a C$240,000 financing round with a market capitalization of approximately C$5 million, strategically positioned at a pivotal moment in critical minerals investment, as the market has yet to fully recognize the value of its diversified mineral portfolio.
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- National Security Role: MP Materials was highlighted in CBS's '60 Minutes' as a pivotal player in U.S. national security, with CEO James Litinsky emphasizing the unacceptable reliance on China, which produces over 90% of the world's rare earth magnets.
- Purity Milestone: The Mountain Pass mine achieved a significant milestone in 2023 by refining neodymium and praseodymium to 99.9% purity, enhancing the company's technical capabilities and laying the groundwork for U.S. independence in the rare earth supply chain.
- Government Investment Support: The Trump administration agreed to inject $400 million into MP Materials last year, guaranteeing a minimum price of $110/kg for rare earth oxides over ten years, providing robust financial stability for the company.
- Production Expansion Plans: To meet the government's demand for a tenfold increase in rare earth magnet production, Litinsky is constructing a larger magnet factory in Texas, which is expected to fulfill the country's critical rare earth magnet needs and further solidify the company's market position.
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- Domestic Production Opportunity: The U.S. government's 'mine-to-magnet' strategy is investing in mining stocks, positioning MP Materials, the sole owner of a rare-earth mining and processing site in North America, to significantly enhance its market position amid rising domestic supply needs.
- Key Partnership Agreement: The landmark public-private partnership with the U.S. Department of Defense establishes a price floor of $110 per kilogram for NdPr products over the next decade, ensuring stable revenue while granting the DOD a 15% equity stake, thereby strengthening the company's financial foundation.
- Production Capacity Expansion: MP Materials has commenced commercial production of rare-earth metals and alloys at its Texas facility, currently producing 1,000 metric tons of magnets with plans to expand to 3,000 metric tons, and is developing the 10X facility to achieve an annual capacity of 10,000 metric tons, significantly boosting its competitive edge.
- Future Revenue Projections: Analysts project that MP Materials' revenue could exceed $508 million by 2026 and double to over $1 billion by 2028, presenting a compelling investment opportunity for aggressive investors despite execution risks associated with scaling manufacturing capacity amid recent stock price declines.
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- Strategic Partnership: MP Materials has established a long-term partnership with the U.S. government to supply critical rare earth products, which is expected to enhance its competitiveness in the domestic rare earth market, particularly as the U.S. seeks to reduce reliance on China.
- Capacity Expansion Plans: The company plans to expand its Fort Worth, Texas facility's magnet production capacity from 1,000 metric tons to 3,000 metric tons, and is developing a 10X facility aimed at achieving an annual output of 10,000 metric tons, significantly increasing its market share.
- Price Assurance Agreement: The agreement with the Department of Defense sets a price floor of $110 per kilogram for approximately 10 years, ensuring a stable revenue stream and positioning MP Materials favorably within the rare earth supply chain.
- Optimistic Market Outlook: Analysts project that MP Materials' revenue could exceed $508 million by 2026 and double to over $1 billion by 2028, indicating strong growth potential in the rare earth sector, despite facing execution risks.
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