Bullish Thesis on Waste Connections, Inc. Investment Potential
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 6d ago
0mins
Should l Buy WCN?
Source: Yahoo Finance
- Market Positioning Advantage: Waste Connections, Inc. focuses on underserved rural areas, establishing a strong market barrier through quality service and pricing power, akin to Dino Polska's expansion strategy, ensuring a unique position in the competitive waste collection industry.
- Revenue Diversification: The company not only relies on traditional waste collection but also enhances revenue by treating non-hazardous by-products from the oil and gas sector and converting methane gas from landfills into electricity, thereby improving overall financial stability.
- Operational Leverage Improvement: Adjusted EBITDA trends indicate that the Canada segment has expanded margins by 4.5 percentage points with a revenue growth of 26.6%, showcasing significant advantages from local management and decentralized operations that drive overall efficiency.
- Financial Health Status: Waste Connections, Inc. holds $20.78 billion in total assets against $8.96 billion in debt; despite a negative net cash position, the company still demonstrates strong investment appeal due to its future growth potential and resilient contracts.
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Analyst Views on WCN
Wall Street analysts forecast WCN stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for WCN is 205.54 USD with a low forecast of 173.11 USD and a high forecast of 221.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
19 Analyst Rating
16 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 169.180
Low
173.11
Averages
205.54
High
221.00
Current: 169.180
Low
173.11
Averages
205.54
High
221.00
About WCN
Waste Connections, Inc. is an integrated solid waste services company. It provides non-hazardous waste collection, transfer and disposal services, including by rail, along with resource recovery primarily through recycling and renewable fuels generation. Its segments include Western, Southern, Eastern, Central, Canada and MidSouth. It serves approximately nine million residential, commercial and industrial customers in secondary markets across 46 states in the U.S. and six provinces in Canada. It also provides non-hazardous oilfield waste treatment, recovery and disposal services in several basins across the U.S. and Canada, as well as intermodal services for the movement of cargo and solid waste containers in the Pacific Northwest. Its residential services include garbage pickup, yard waste, recycling, dumpster rental, bulk pickup, and portable toilets. Its commercial services include business waste collection, commercial recycling, shredding, roll off dumpster rental, and others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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Bullish Thesis on Waste Connections, Inc. Investment Potential
- Market Positioning Advantage: Waste Connections, Inc. focuses on underserved rural areas, establishing a strong market barrier through quality service and pricing power, akin to Dino Polska's expansion strategy, ensuring a unique position in the competitive waste collection industry.
- Revenue Diversification: The company not only relies on traditional waste collection but also enhances revenue by treating non-hazardous by-products from the oil and gas sector and converting methane gas from landfills into electricity, thereby improving overall financial stability.
- Operational Leverage Improvement: Adjusted EBITDA trends indicate that the Canada segment has expanded margins by 4.5 percentage points with a revenue growth of 26.6%, showcasing significant advantages from local management and decentralized operations that drive overall efficiency.
- Financial Health Status: Waste Connections, Inc. holds $20.78 billion in total assets against $8.96 billion in debt; despite a negative net cash position, the company still demonstrates strong investment appeal due to its future growth potential and resilient contracts.
See More
Waste Management Downgraded to Sector Perform with $250 Price Target
- Stock Performance: Waste Management (WM) saw a 2.1% increase in Wednesday's trading despite being downgraded to Sector Perform with a $250 price target by Scotiabank, primarily due to its relative performance outpacing major peers and closing the valuation gap.
- Growth Challenges: Analyst Konark Gupta noted that WM faces tough organic growth comparisons this year, particularly due to last year's wildfires, although its long-term growth outlook remains attractive, especially with Stericycle synergies ramping up.
- Shareholder Returns: WM has resumed shareholder returns this year with a $3 billion buyback authorization, supported by an estimated nearly $3.8 billion in free cash flow generation for 2026, yielding 4.3%, indicating strong financial health.
- Valuation Analysis: Gupta stated that WM's valuation is projected at 13.8x EV/EBITDA for 2026, in line with its closest peer Republic Services, suggesting that the current valuation is not demanding and presents a good long-term investment opportunity.
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- Investor Conference Call: The company will host an investor conference call on February 12, 2026, at 8:30 A.M. ET to provide detailed insights into its financial results, aiming to strengthen communication and trust with investors.
- Live Webcast Access: Investors can access the live audio webcast of the conference call via the company’s website, ensuring timely information dissemination and broad coverage, which enhances the company's influence among investors.
- Ongoing Investor Engagement: Waste Connections will participate in investor conferences throughout the year, showcasing its leadership in solid waste services and enhancing market awareness and confidence through regular updates.
See More
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Waste Connections (WCN) Maintains Growth Through Active Acquisition Strategy
- Effective Acquisition Strategy: Waste Connections completed 30, 24, 13, and 24 acquisitions from 2021 to 2024, generating revenues of $215.4 million, $552.0 million, $410.9 million, and $529.0 million respectively, showcasing its strong execution capability in market consolidation.
- Earnings Growth Expectations: The company anticipates year-over-year earnings growth rates of 7.5% in 2025 and 10.1% in 2026, indicating a sustained enhancement in profitability over the next few years.
- Increased Dividend Returns: In October 2025, Waste Connections raised its quarterly dividend by 11.1% to $0.35 per share, reflecting a disciplined approach to capital allocation and a commitment to ongoing shareholder returns.
- Rising Liquidity Risk: Although the current ratio slightly increased to 0.67 in Q3 2025, the ongoing decline since 2020 indicates a growing reliance on cash flows, which may heighten liquidity risks during periods of increased acquisition activity or operational pressures.
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- Nasdaq Struggles: In contrast, the Nasdaq Composite ended the week down 1.8%, despite a strong rally on Friday.
See More
Bullish Thesis on Waste Connections, Inc. Investment Potential
- Market Positioning Advantage: Waste Connections, Inc. focuses on underserved rural areas, establishing a strong market barrier through quality service and pricing power, akin to Dino Polska's expansion strategy, ensuring a unique position in the competitive waste collection industry.
- Revenue Diversification: The company not only relies on traditional waste collection but also enhances revenue by treating non-hazardous by-products from the oil and gas sector and converting methane gas from landfills into electricity, thereby improving overall financial stability.
- Operational Leverage Improvement: Adjusted EBITDA trends indicate that the Canada segment has expanded margins by 4.5 percentage points with a revenue growth of 26.6%, showcasing significant advantages from local management and decentralized operations that drive overall efficiency.
- Financial Health Status: Waste Connections, Inc. holds $20.78 billion in total assets against $8.96 billion in debt; despite a negative net cash position, the company still demonstrates strong investment appeal due to its future growth potential and resilient contracts.
See More
Waste Management Downgraded to Sector Perform with $250 Price Target
- Stock Performance: Waste Management (WM) saw a 2.1% increase in Wednesday's trading despite being downgraded to Sector Perform with a $250 price target by Scotiabank, primarily due to its relative performance outpacing major peers and closing the valuation gap.
- Growth Challenges: Analyst Konark Gupta noted that WM faces tough organic growth comparisons this year, particularly due to last year's wildfires, although its long-term growth outlook remains attractive, especially with Stericycle synergies ramping up.
- Shareholder Returns: WM has resumed shareholder returns this year with a $3 billion buyback authorization, supported by an estimated nearly $3.8 billion in free cash flow generation for 2026, yielding 4.3%, indicating strong financial health.
- Valuation Analysis: Gupta stated that WM's valuation is projected at 13.8x EV/EBITDA for 2026, in line with its closest peer Republic Services, suggesting that the current valuation is not demanding and presents a good long-term investment opportunity.
See More
Waste Connections Announces Q4 2025 Earnings Release and 2026 Outlook Date
- Earnings Release Schedule: Waste Connections will report its Q4 2025 financial results and 2026 outlook after market close on February 11, 2026, demonstrating the company's commitment to transparency and forward-looking guidance.
- Investor Conference Call: The company will host an investor conference call on February 12, 2026, at 8:30 A.M. ET to provide detailed insights into its financial results, aiming to strengthen communication and trust with investors.
- Live Webcast Access: Investors can access the live audio webcast of the conference call via the company’s website, ensuring timely information dissemination and broad coverage, which enhances the company's influence among investors.
- Ongoing Investor Engagement: Waste Connections will participate in investor conferences throughout the year, showcasing its leadership in solid waste services and enhancing market awareness and confidence through regular updates.
See More
Small-Cap Stocks Are Gaining Momentum: Reasons This Rally May Endure.
Small-Cap Stocks Performance: Small-cap stocks have started 2026 strongly, with the Russell 2000 index rising over 6% this month.
Comparison with Larger Indices: This performance surpasses that of larger indices such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite.
January Effect: The strong start for small-cap stocks may be attributed to the "January effect," a phenomenon where these stocks typically see gains in the first month of the year.
Market Trends: The trend indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment favoring smaller companies at the beginning of the year.
See More
Waste Connections (WCN) Maintains Growth Through Active Acquisition Strategy
- Effective Acquisition Strategy: Waste Connections completed 30, 24, 13, and 24 acquisitions from 2021 to 2024, generating revenues of $215.4 million, $552.0 million, $410.9 million, and $529.0 million respectively, showcasing its strong execution capability in market consolidation.
- Earnings Growth Expectations: The company anticipates year-over-year earnings growth rates of 7.5% in 2025 and 10.1% in 2026, indicating a sustained enhancement in profitability over the next few years.
- Increased Dividend Returns: In October 2025, Waste Connections raised its quarterly dividend by 11.1% to $0.35 per share, reflecting a disciplined approach to capital allocation and a commitment to ongoing shareholder returns.
- Rising Liquidity Risk: Although the current ratio slightly increased to 0.67 in Q3 2025, the ongoing decline since 2020 indicates a growing reliance on cash flows, which may heighten liquidity risks during periods of increased acquisition activity or operational pressures.
See More
