Breakingviews - Bain buyout fight shows allure of pensions

Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst

BX-2.86%

Source: Reuters

Updated: Jan 09 2025

0mins

Source: Reuters

Investment Interest in Insignia Financial: U.S. private equity firms, CC Capital and Bain Capital, are vying for a stake in Australia's Insignia Financial, with CC Capital proposing a non-binding offer valuing the company at A$2.9 billion, which is 7.5% higher than Bain's previous offer.
Challenges Facing Insignia: Despite holding significant superannuation assets, Insignia is struggling with growth due to outflows and structural disadvantages compared to its mutually owned rivals, prompting efforts for a turnaround that includes cost reductions and business restructuring.

$150.48+Infinity%1D

Analyst Views on BX

Wall Street analysts forecast BX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BX is 176.60 USD with a low forecast of 166.00 USD and a high forecast of 205.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

12 Analyst Rating

5 Buy

7 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 154.910

Low

166.00

Averages

176.60

High

205.00

Current: 154.910

Low

166.00

Averages

176.60

High

205.00

Barclays

Equal Weight

maintain

$172 -> $171

2026-01-09

Reason

Barclays

Price Target

$172 -> $171

AI Analysis

2026-01-09

maintain

Equal Weight

Reason

Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Blackstone to $171 from $172 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the alternative asset manager group as part of its Q4 outlook. Barclays expect realizations to pick up meaningfully across the board. The market-wide concerns around credit performance are overblown, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Wells Fargo

Finian O'Shea

Equal Weight -> Underweight

downgrade

$26 -> $24

2026-01-07

Reason

Wells Fargo

Finian O'Shea

Price Target

$26 -> $24

2026-01-07

downgrade

Equal Weight -> Underweight

Reason

As previously reported, Wells Fargo analyst Finian O'Shea downgraded Blackstone Secured Lending Fund to Underweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $24, down from $26, on a near-book valuation, which soon may be tested by its first dividend cut. An M&A comeback and slower wealth channel flows may lessen the Spreadwinds, but for now the firm sees one more year of earnings turbulence.

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Barclays

Benjamin Budish

Equal Weight

maintain

$165 -> $172

2025-12-12

Reason

Barclays

Benjamin Budish

Price Target

$165 -> $172

2025-12-12

maintain

Equal Weight

Reason

Barclays analyst Benjamin Budish raised the firm's price target on Blackstone to $172 from $165 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the brokers, asset managers and exchanges group as part of its 2026. Market conditions "look constructive" going into 2026, particularly for the alternative asset managers and wealth brokers, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Barclays sees a more mixed outlook for the exchanges and traditional asset managers.

UBS

Michael Brown

Neutral

initiated

$175

2025-12-11

Reason

UBS

Michael Brown

Price Target

$175

2025-12-11

initiated

Neutral

Reason

UBS analyst Michael Brown assumed coverage of Blackstone with a Neutral rating and $175 price target, noting strong sector fundamentals across 20 U.S. asset managers and brokers despite more mixed views on valuations and consensus expectations.The outlook favors undervalued growth, disciplined capital allocation, and firms positioned for margin expansion, while secular tailwinds support wealth brokers and independent investment banks whose robust earnings growth appears partly priced in, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

About BX

Blackstone Inc. is an alternative asset manager. Its asset management includes global investment strategies focused on real estate, private equity, infrastructure, life sciences, growth equity, credit, real assets, secondaries, and hedge funds. Its Real Estate segment comprises its management of opportunistic real estate funds, Core+ real estate funds, and real estate debt strategies. Its Private Equity segment includes its management of flagship Corporate Private Equity funds, sector and geographically focused Corporate Private Equity funds, core private equity funds, an investment platform, and others. Its Credit & Insurance segment consists of Blackstone Credit & Insurance, which is organized into three overarching strategies: private corporate credit, liquid corporate credit and infrastructure and asset-based credit. Its Multi-Asset Investing segment is organized into four investment platforms: Absolute Return, Multi-Strategy, Total Portfolio Management, and Public Real Assets.

About the author

Emily J. Thompson

Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.