Breakingviews - A "peace" deal in Ukraine could lead to an economic disaster.

Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst

Source: Reuters

Updated: Nov 28 2025

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Source: Reuters

Economic Impact of Peace Plan: A peace plan for Ukraine that allows Russia to retain control over occupied territories could lead to long-term economic uncertainty for Europe, with reconstruction costs for Ukraine now estimated at $600 billion, primarily needing support from foreign governments and private investors.
Challenges of Reconstruction: The status of occupied territories must be resolved for Ukraine to attract foreign investment necessary for its recovery, as ongoing fears of conflict will deter potential investors.
Refugee Return and Support Needs: The return of Ukrainian refugees could boost the workforce, but the EU will need to provide training and welfare support for both returnees and demobilized soldiers to aid in the country's reconstruction.
Risks of a Fragile Truce: A truce that rewards Russia could lead to increased defense spending in Europe and potentially allow Russia to recover economically, raising concerns about future conflicts and the stability of the region.

About the author

Emily J. Thompson

Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.