BigBear.ai Struggles Post-IPO with Revenue Falling Short of Expectations
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 22 2026
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Source: NASDAQ.COM
- Weak Revenue Growth: BigBear.ai's revenue increased from $146 million in 2021 to only $158 million in 2024, significantly below its forecast of $550 million, highlighting its reliance on government contracts and challenges in market expansion.
- Poor Market Performance: Since its IPO, BigBear.ai's stock price has fallen from $9.84 to below $6, reflecting investor disappointment in its growth potential, with analysts predicting a 2% revenue decline in 2027.
- Acquisition Dependency: The company is relying on acquisitions, including the planned purchases of AI vision firm Pangiam and generative AI company Ask Sage, to drive growth, but analysts believe these deals won't significantly boost revenue in the near term, indicating a fragile growth strategy.
- Increased Competitive Pressure: Compared to larger players like IBM, BigBear.ai lacks competitive strength in the AI market, as IBM's hybrid cloud and AI services are expected to grow revenue by 5% from 2024 to 2027, further intensifying the market challenges for BigBear.ai.
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Analyst Views on BBAI
Wall Street analysts forecast BBAI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BBAI is 6.33 USD with a low forecast of 5.00 USD and a high forecast of 8.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Analyst Rating
1 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 5.520
Low
5.00
Averages
6.33
High
8.00
Current: 5.520
Low
5.00
Averages
6.33
High
8.00
About BBAI
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. is a provider of artificial intelligence (AI)-powered decision intelligence solutions for national security, supply chain management and digital identity. The Company is a technology-led solutions organization, providing both software and services to its customers. It combines subject-matter expertise with technology to connect the enterprise, provide insights on process performance and recommendations for managing risk. It offers computer vision, anomaly/event detection, and descriptive and predictive analytics to support operations and break down silos between vendors and systems. The Company’s customers span the public and private sector, including the United States defense and intelligence agencies, border protection, transportation security, manufacturing, distribution and logistics, as well as travel, entertainment and tourism. It also offers software assets that are tailored for digital identity and biometrics, leveraging advanced vision AI technology.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
BigBear.ai's Acquisition of Ask Sage Enhances Growth Prospects
- Acquisition Deal: BigBear.ai finalized its $250 million acquisition of Ask Sage on December 31, 2025, a leading AI provider for national security, which is expected to expand its AI solutions portfolio and enhance its reach in defense and highly regulated markets.
- Market Reaction: Following the acquisition announcement, BigBear.ai's stock has risen approximately 15%, indicating investor optimism about future growth opportunities, although its market cap remains at $2.6 billion, on the lower end of mid-cap stocks.
- Financial Challenges: Despite the potential for growth from the acquisition, BigBear.ai reported a cumulative net loss of $426.3 million over the last four quarters against revenues of only $144.2 million, highlighting significant profitability challenges ahead.
- Investor Caution: While the stock has performed well this year, it is still down about 30% from its 52-week high of $10.36, leading investors to adopt a cautious stance regarding the company's future prospects and valuation, suggesting a wait-and-see approach.
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BigBear.ai Partners with Maqta Technologies for Customs Solutions
- Strategic Partnership Announced: BigBear.ai has partnered with Maqta Technologies, the digital arm of AD Ports Group, to develop advanced customs and border operations solutions, aiming to leverage AI to enhance global trade efficiency, despite the company's stock underperforming amid a broader tech sector decline.
- Acquisition Update: Earlier this month, BigBear.ai acquired the generative AI platform Ask Sage for $250 million and opened its first regional office in the World Trade Center Abu Dhabi, demonstrating its commitment to international market expansion.
- Current Technical Analysis: BBAI shares are trading at $5.59, 6.2% below the 20-day simple moving average, indicating a bearish short-term trend, while the stock has increased by 53.71% over the past year, suggesting potential weakness as it approaches 52-week lows.
- Analyst Rating Changes: While BBAI has an average price target of $5.13, Cantor Fitzgerald downgraded its rating to Neutral with a lowered target of $6.00, contrasting with HC Wainwright & Co.'s Buy rating maintaining a target of $8.00, reflecting mixed market sentiment.
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