BHP Raises Jansen Copper Project Cost Estimate to $8.4B Amid Construction Overruns
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 20 2026
0mins
Source: seekingalpha
- Cost Increase: BHP raised its total cost estimate for the Jansen Phase 1 copper project to $8.4 billion from a previous range of $7 billion to $7.4 billion, citing construction hours and material quantities not included in earlier estimates, resulting in a $1 billion overrun.
- Project Progress: The first stage of the Jansen project is 75% complete, with first production expected in mid-2027 and a copper output guidance of approximately 4.15 million metric tons per year, underscoring its significance in BHP's long-term growth strategy.
- Production Data: BHP reported Q2 copper production of 490,500 tons, down 1% quarter-over-quarter and 4% year-over-year, yet realized prices surged by 29%, reflecting benchmark prices exceeding $13,000 per ton, with full-year copper production forecast raised to 1.9 million to 2 million tons.
- Iron Ore Output: The company maintained its full-year iron ore output guidance at 284 million to 296 million tons, with Q2 production climbing to 69.7 million tons, up 9% quarter-over-quarter and 5% year-over-year, positioning BHP solidly ahead of the typically wet Q3.
Analyst Views on BHP
Wall Street analysts forecast BHP stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BHP is 54.88 USD with a low forecast of 48.00 USD and a high forecast of 68.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
1 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 67.770
Low
48.00
Averages
54.88
High
68.00
Current: 67.770
Low
48.00
Averages
54.88
High
68.00
About BHP
BHP Group Limited is an Australia-based resources company. The Company is a producer of commodities, including iron ore, copper, nickel, potash and metallurgical (steelmaking) coal. It is focused on offering a range of resources, which provides copper for renewable energy; nickel for electric vehicles; potash for sustainable farming, and iron ore and metallurgical coal for the steel needed for global infrastructure and the energy transition. Its segments include Copper, Iron Ore, and Coal. Its Copper segment is engaged in mining of copper, silver, zinc, molybdenum, uranium, and gold. Its Iron Ore segment is engaged in mining of iron ore. Its Coal segment is engaged in mining of metallurgical coal and energy coal. The Company is also focused on operating Olympic Dam, Prominent Hill, and Carrapateena underground copper-gold mines in South Australia. Its operations are situated in Australia, Europe, China, Japan, India, South Korea, rest of Asia, North America, South America, and others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
