AvalonBay Communities (AVB) Poised for 2026 Rebound Amid REIT Sector Weakness
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Dec 29 2025
0mins
Source: CNBC
- Market Performance Analysis: The real estate sector finished last among the 11 S&P 500 sectors in 2025, making select REITs attractive candidates for outperformance in 2026 following this underperformance.
- Technical Breakout: AvalonBay Communities (AVB) has broken out above resistance at the April low and daily cloud (~$183), indicating potential for a short-term bounce that could drive the stock towards resistance near $195.
- Long-Term Trend Signal: AVB is currently oversold according to monthly stochastics, reinforced by a minor counter-trend signal from DeMARK Indicators®, which historically marks key turning points for the REIT, suggesting a possible rebound in 2026.
- Relative Performance Improvement: The AVB/SPX ratio is at least 20% below its own 200-day moving average, an oversold extreme last seen in 2020 and 2009, both of which were followed by relative relief rallies, further supporting the case for AVB's potential outperformance in 2026.
Get Free Real-Time Notifications for Any Stock
Monitor tickers like AVB with instant alerts to capture every critical market movement.
Sign up for free to build your custom watchlist and receive professional-grade stock notifications.
Analyst Views on AVB
Wall Street analysts forecast AVB stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AVB is 200.71 USD with a low forecast of 176.90 USD and a high forecast of 222.50 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
16 Analyst Rating
6 Buy
10 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 172.970
Low
176.90
Averages
200.71
High
222.50
Current: 172.970
Low
176.90
Averages
200.71
High
222.50
About AVB
AvalonBay Communities, Inc. is a real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company develops, redevelops, acquires and manages apartment communities in metropolitan areas in New England, the New York/New Jersey Metro area, the Mid-Atlantic, the Pacific Northwest, and Northern and Southern California, as well as in the Company's expansion regions of Raleigh-Durham and Charlotte, North Carolina, Southeast Florida, Dallas and Austin, Texas, and Denver, Colorado. The Company focuses on metropolitan areas in these regions. The Company's segments include Same Store, Other Stabilized and Development/Redevelopment. The Company owns or holds a direct or indirect ownership interest in operating apartment communities containing apartment homes in 11 states and the District of Columbia. The Company operates under four core brands, which include Avalon, AVA, eaves by Avalon, and Kanso. Its core Avalon brand focuses on upscale apartment living and high-end amenities and services.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
AvalonBay Communities Reveals Tax Treatment for 2025 Dividend Income
Announcement of 2025 Dividend Income Tax Treatment: Avalon Bay Communities has announced the tax treatment for dividend income for the year 2025.
Impact on Investors: This announcement is significant for investors as it outlines how dividend income will be taxed, potentially affecting their investment strategies.
Continue Reading
CBRE Group and AvalonBay Communities Face Significant EPS Downgrades
- Earnings Downgrades: CBRE Group, Inc. (CBRE) and AvalonBay Communities, Inc. (AVB) received EPS revision grades of F and D-, respectively, indicating a significant decline in future profitability expectations that could lead to stock price drops.
- Market Reaction Expectations: Negative EPS revisions typically signal underlying fundamental weaknesses, leading investors to anticipate weaker performance and potentially triggering broader market sell-offs.
- Rating Impact Analysis: CBRE's Quant rating stands at Hold (2.87), while AVB's is Sell (2.26), reflecting insufficient market confidence in these companies, which may affect their financing and investment attractiveness.
- Industry Trend Observation: The EPS revision grades among large-cap real estate stocks indicate widespread profitability pressure within the sector, prompting investors to monitor these signals to assess potential investment risks and opportunities.
Continue Reading