AST SpaceMobile Faces Competition from Blue Origin's TeraWave, Shares Drop 13.4%

Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst

ASTS+6.26%

SATS+5.09%

Source: Fool

Updated: 6d ago

0mins

Source: Fool

Increased Competition: Blue Origin's announcement of the TeraWave satellite communication network, capable of 6 Tbps with 5,408 satellites and set to deploy in Q4 2027, has led to a 13.4% drop in AST SpaceMobile's stock, reflecting market concerns over competitive pressures.
Revenue Growth: AST SpaceMobile reported $14.7 million in revenue for Q3 and expects between $35 million and $50 million in Q4, indicating active monetization efforts despite new competition, showcasing its potential in the space-based internet connectivity sector.
Market Valuation: With revenue projected to reach nearly $200 million by 2026, AST's price-to-sales ratio of approximately 200 suggests high market expectations, which could lead to increased stock volatility as investors reassess growth prospects.
Industry Dynamics: Competing with Elon Musk's Starlink, AST SpaceMobile may not be immediately threatened by new entrants; however, investors should monitor Blue Origin's developments closely to gauge their long-term impact on AST's market position.

ASTS

$111.34+Infinity%1D

Analyst Views on ASTS

Wall Street analysts forecast ASTS stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ASTS is 74.26 USD with a low forecast of 43.00 USD and a high forecast of 100.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

9 Analyst Rating

4 Buy

3 Hold

2 Sell

Hold

Current: 104.780

Low

43.00

Averages

74.26

High

100.00

Current: 104.780

Low

43.00

Averages

74.26

High

100.00

BofA

Neutral

maintain

$100

2026-01-21

Reason

BofA

Price Target

$100

AI Analysis

2026-01-21

maintain

Neutral

Reason

After Blue Origin announced plans for a new satellite communications network, TeraWave, that will leverage low and medium Earth orbit satellites to deliver symmetrical data speeds up to 6 Tbps, BofA said TeraWave "adds to the long list of planned satellite constellations," but is not a direct competitive threat to AST SpaceMobile, which targets the direct-to-device D2D market largely through mobile network operator partnerships. The firm, which contends that fears for AST SpaceMobile on the TeraWave news are "misplaced," reiterates a Neutral rating and $100 price target on AST shares.

Deutsche Bank

Buy

upgrade

$81 -> $137

2026-01-20

Reason

Deutsche Bank

Price Target

$81 -> $137

2026-01-20

upgrade

Buy

Reason

Deutsche Bank raised the firm's price target on AST SpaceMobile to $137 from $81 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares.

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Deutsche Bank

Buy

maintain

$81 -> $137

2026-01-20

Reason

Deutsche Bank

Price Target

$81 -> $137

2026-01-20

maintain

Buy

Reason

Deutsche Bank raised the firm's price target on AST SpaceMobile to $137 from $81 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm rolled forward its share valuation given the new year and AST's EBITDA multiple to 20-times from 15. The reason for the increase in Deutsche's 2030 valuation multiple is that its new forecast exits 2030 with a 60% higher EBITDA growth rate of 40%, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm believes AST has the partnerships in place to be successful and scale its direct-to-device business.

Clear Street

Buy

maintain

$87 -> $137

2026-01-20

Reason

Clear Street

Price Target

$87 -> $137

2026-01-20

maintain

Buy

Reason

Clear Street raised the firm's price target on AST SpaceMobile to $137 from $87 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm remains bullish on the direct-to-cellular market, saying rising competition from Starlink is likely to push mobile network operators to rely more heavily on AST partnerships to defend subscriber bases. Clear Street extended its valuation period to 2029 for the shares.

About ASTS

AST SpaceMobile, Inc. is engaged in building a global cellular broadband network in space to operate directly with standard, unmodified mobile devices based on its intellectual property (IP) and patent portfolio and designed for both commercial and government applications. The Company is engaged in designing and developing the constellation of BlueBird (BB) satellites and has planned space-based Cellular Broadband network distributed through a constellation of low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites. Its SpaceMobile Service is being designed to provide high-speed cellular broadband services to end-users who are out of terrestrial cellular coverage using existing mobile devices. The Company intends to continue testing capabilities of the BW3 test satellite, including further testing with cellular service providers and the government. The Company has operations in India, Scotland, Spain, and Israel.

About the author

Emily J. Thompson

Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.