Apple's AI Investment Lagging, 2026 Outlook Worrisome

Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst

AAPL+0.13%

Source: Fool

Updated: 3h ago

0mins

Source: Fool

Market Position Analysis: With a market cap of $3.9 trillion, Apple ranks as the second or third largest company globally, yet it lags behind Nvidia's $4.6 trillion valuation, indicating a competitive disadvantage.
Stagnant Growth: Over the past four years, Apple's annual growth has been limited to high single digits, and the lack of widely accepted new products has stunted its growth, potentially undermining investor confidence in its future.
Investment Return Performance: In 2025, Apple's stock rose by 8.6%, underperforming the S&P 500's 16.4% increase, reflecting its poor market performance, and its total return is comparable to peers, failing to achieve market-beating results.
Uncertain Future Outlook: Apple's lag in AI could expose it to greater competitive pressures, and without innovative product launches, its stock is expected to rise only in line with revenue growth, making it less appealing to investors.

AAPL

$259.37+Infinity%1D

Analyst Views on AAPL

Wall Street analysts forecast AAPL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AAPL is 289.17 USD with a low forecast of 225.00 USD and a high forecast of 345.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

35 Analyst Rating

21 Buy

12 Hold

2 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 259.040

Low

225.00

Averages

289.17

High

345.00

Current: 259.040

Low

225.00

Averages

289.17

High

345.00

Evercore ISI

Outperform

maintain

$325 -> $330

2026-01-09

New

Reason

Evercore ISI

Price Target

$325 -> $330

2026-01-09

New

maintain

Outperform

Reason

Evercore ISI raised the firm's price target on Apple to $330 from $325 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. Checks coupled with industry data points suggest that there is near-term upside to Apple estimates driven by robust iPhone demand and a "minimal" memory cost headwind, the analyst tells investors. The firm is raising its estimates for the December-end quarter to $140.5B in revenue and $2.71 in EPS, versus the Street at $137.3B and $2.66, respectively, to reflect stronger iPhone demand.

TD Cowen

Buy

maintain

$26

2026-01-07

New

Reason

TD Cowen

Price Target

$26

2026-01-07

New

maintain

Buy

Reason

TD Cowen reiterated a Buy rating and $26 price target on CompoSecure (CMPO) after JPMorgan Chase (JPM) confirmed it is taking over Apple's (AAPL) credit card program. Given CompoSecure is the exclusive metal card provider for Chase, the firm views the news as a potentially significant positive for CompoSecure, though the caveat is that it is possible Apple may have input into who makes the card. The current physical Apple Card is made of titanium, and not made by CompoSecure, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Clear Street

Buy

maintain

$66 -> $71

2026-01-06

Reason

Clear Street

Price Target

$66 -> $71

2026-01-06

maintain

Buy

Reason

Clear Street raised the firm's price target on Globalstar (GAST) to $71 from $66 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm views the company as a "compelling hybrid investment." Globalstar has a "de-risked" satellite services business, which is supported by Apple (AAPL), and "valuable and underutilized" terrestrial spectrum assets, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Clear says President Trump's space initiative and XCOM Radio Access Network's commercial momentum enhances its government services estimates for the company.

Goldman Sachs

Buy

maintain

$320

2026-01-06

Reason

Goldman Sachs

Price Target

$320

2026-01-06

maintain

Buy

Reason

Apple App Store spending grew roughly 6% year over year in December 2025, decelerating from November as weakness in Games and Entertainment and softer trends in China and Japan offset stable U.S. growth, Goldman Sachs tells investors in a research note. While App Store growth has slowed and trails Apple's broader Services outlook, faster growth in other Services categories should support overall Services revenue, with the App Store remaining a key long-term contributor despite near-term risks, the firm adds. Goldman Sachs has a Buy rating and $320 price target on the shares.

About AAPL

Apple Inc. designs, manufactures and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and sells a variety of related services. Its product categories include iPhone, Mac, iPad, and Wearables, Home and Accessories. Its software platforms include iOS, iPadOS, macOS, watchOS, visionOS, and tvOS. Its services include advertising, AppleCare, cloud services, digital content and payment services. The Company operates various platforms, including the App Store, that allow customers to discover and download applications and digital content, such as books, music, video, games and podcasts. It also offers digital content through subscription-based services, including Apple Arcade, Apple Fitness+, Apple Music, Apple News+, and Apple TV+. Its products include iPhone 16 Pro, iPhone 16, iPhone 15, iPhone 14, iPhone SE, MacBook Air, MacBook Pro, iMac, Mac mini, Mac Studio, Mac Pro, iPad Pro, iPad Air, AirPods, AirPods Pro, AirPods Max, Apple TV and Apple Vision Pro.

About the author

Emily J. Thompson

Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.