Apple (AAPL) Captures 21.8% of China's Q4 Smartphone Market Driven by iPhone 17 Demand

Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst

AAPL-1.04%

Source: seekingalpha

Updated: 2h ago

0mins

Source: seekingalpha

Market Leadership: According to Counterpoint Research, Apple captured a 21.8% share of China's smartphone market in Q4 2023, driven by strong demand for the iPhone 17 series and an accelerated supply ramp, highlighting Apple's leadership in a competitive landscape.
Shipment Growth: Apple's shipments rose 28% year-over-year in Q4, reflecting not only the strong market response for both the Pro series and base variants but also showcasing the company's success in product innovation and market adaptability.
iPhone Air Underperformance: Despite the iPhone Air's significance as an exploration into ultra-thin design, its delayed launch in China resulted in a low single-digit market share, underscoring the critical impact of product timing on market acceptance.
Overall Market Trends: The total smartphone shipments in China fell 1.6% year-over-year in 2025, indicating ongoing challenges in the market despite fierce competition between Apple and Huawei, particularly amid rising memory prices and a focus on scaling back low-end models.

AAPL

$255.53+Infinity%1D

Analyst Views on AAPL

Wall Street analysts forecast AAPL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AAPL is 299.69 USD with a low forecast of 230.00 USD and a high forecast of 350.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

32 Analyst Rating

19 Buy

11 Hold

2 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 258.210

Low

230.00

Averages

299.69

High

350.00

Current: 258.210

Low

230.00

Averages

299.69

High

350.00

Evercore ISI

initiated

$330

Al Analysis

2026-01-20

New

Reason

Evercore ISI

Price Target

$330

Al Analysis

2026-01-20

New

initiated

Reason

Evercore ISI continues to have a positive stance on shares of Apple heading into the December-end quarter report due on January 29, telling investors that checks suggest that there's near-term upside to Street estimates. As such, the firm is adding Apple to its "Tactical Outperform" list ahead of earnings, adding that Apple remains the analyst's "Top Pick for CY26." The analyst, who views Apple as well positioned to sustain mid-to-high single digit top-line growth and double-digit EPS growth on the back of a strong product refresh cycle, has an Outperform rating and $330 price target on shares.

Evercore ISI

Outperform

maintain

$325 -> $330

2026-01-09

Reason

Evercore ISI

Price Target

$325 -> $330

2026-01-09

maintain

Outperform

Reason

Evercore ISI raised the firm's price target on Apple to $330 from $325 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. Checks coupled with industry data points suggest that there is near-term upside to Apple estimates driven by robust iPhone demand and a "minimal" memory cost headwind, the analyst tells investors. The firm is raising its estimates for the December-end quarter to $140.5B in revenue and $2.71 in EPS, versus the Street at $137.3B and $2.66, respectively, to reflect stronger iPhone demand.

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TD Cowen

Buy

maintain

$26

2026-01-07

Reason

TD Cowen

Price Target

$26

2026-01-07

maintain

Buy

Reason

TD Cowen reiterated a Buy rating and $26 price target on CompoSecure (CMPO) after JPMorgan Chase (JPM) confirmed it is taking over Apple's (AAPL) credit card program. Given CompoSecure is the exclusive metal card provider for Chase, the firm views the news as a potentially significant positive for CompoSecure, though the caveat is that it is possible Apple may have input into who makes the card. The current physical Apple Card is made of titanium, and not made by CompoSecure, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Clear Street

Buy

maintain

$66 -> $71

2026-01-06

Reason

Clear Street

Price Target

$66 -> $71

2026-01-06

maintain

Buy

Reason

Clear Street raised the firm's price target on Globalstar (GAST) to $71 from $66 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm views the company as a "compelling hybrid investment." Globalstar has a "de-risked" satellite services business, which is supported by Apple (AAPL), and "valuable and underutilized" terrestrial spectrum assets, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Clear says President Trump's space initiative and XCOM Radio Access Network's commercial momentum enhances its government services estimates for the company.

About AAPL

Apple Inc. designs, manufactures and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and sells a variety of related services. Its product categories include iPhone, Mac, iPad, and Wearables, Home and Accessories. Its software platforms include iOS, iPadOS, macOS, watchOS, visionOS, and tvOS. Its services include advertising, AppleCare, cloud services, digital content and payment services. The Company operates various platforms, including the App Store, that allow customers to discover and download applications and digital content, such as books, music, video, games and podcasts. It also offers digital content through subscription-based services, including Apple Arcade, Apple Fitness+, Apple Music, Apple News+, and Apple TV+. Its products include iPhone 16 Pro, iPhone 16, iPhone 15, iPhone 14, iPhone SE, MacBook Air, MacBook Pro, iMac, Mac mini, Mac Studio, Mac Pro, iPad Pro, iPad Air, AirPods, AirPods Pro, AirPods Max, Apple TV, Apple Vision Pro and others.

About the author

Emily J. Thompson

Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.