Analyst Predicts Positive Outlook for Saia Amid Trucking Challenges Through 2026
Stock Performance: Saia, Inc. stock declined by 2.05% as investors reacted to mixed fourth-quarter freight trends, with October showing a year-over-year decline in shipments and tonnage, while November saw a slight recovery.
Analyst Insights: Bank of America Securities analyst Ken Hoexter maintained a Neutral rating on Saia, raising the price forecast from $322 to $367, citing confidence in the company's long-term growth despite current mixed performance.
Market Challenges: Saia faces ongoing challenges, particularly in its largest market, Los Angeles, where volumes are down nearly 20% year-over-year, and growth is primarily from shorter, lower-revenue lanes.
Future Outlook: The analyst noted improved contract visibility for 2026 and maintained earnings expectations, with fourth-quarter EPS projected at $1.88 and 2026 EPS at $11.10, while also expecting a larger seasonal deterioration in operating ratios.
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Cass Transportation Index: Freight Market Softness with Rising Rates
- Volume Decline: The Cass Freight Index reported a 7.2% month-over-month drop in shipments for December, with a year-over-year decline of 7.5%, indicating softness in the freight market despite stabilizing prices, highlighting industry challenges.
- Elevated Expenditures: Although expenditures fell by 1.9% month-over-month in December and only 0.6% year-over-year, this reflects persistent high freight costs that have not decreased as much as shipment volumes, following significant increases in 2021 and 2022.
- Truckload Index Recovery: The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index rose by 1.0% month-over-month in December and posted a 1.8% increase for 2025, recovering from declines of 10% in 2023 and 3.4% in 2024, indicating gradual market recovery.
- Future Demand Outlook: Cass Information Systems suggests that after significant destocking in Q4, a favorable Supreme Court ruling on IEEPA tariffs could act as a positive catalyst for freight demand moving forward.

FedEx (FDX) to Spin Off Freight Business on June 1, Expected Valuation Boost
- Spin-Off Announcement: FedEx (FDX) has set June 1 for the spin-off of its freight business, which currently accounts for nearly 25% of the company's operating income, potentially enhancing its valuation.
- Leadership Team: The new FedEx Freight entity will be led by CEO John Smith, with R. Brad Martin as chairman, and the board will include executives from Dollar Tree and Lowe's, indicating strong leadership.
- Investor Day Plans: FedEx Freight is scheduled to hold an investor day next spring to outline its strategies and how it plans to close the gap with industry leader Old Dominion Freight Line in terms of service levels and operating leverage.
- Market Expectations: While revenue projections for fiscal year 2026 are modest, analysts believe the spin-off could unlock long-term shareholder value, making the new entity an attractive acquisition target or accelerating sector consolidation.






