Analyst Cautions That RXO May Experience Margin Pressure Due to Tightening Truck Supply
Margin Pressure and Profitability: RXO Inc. is experiencing increased margin pressure due to tightening truck capacity and rising spot rates, leading to expected results falling below the company's target range.
Analyst Outlook: Bank of America Securities analyst Ken Hoexter has lowered his fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted EBITDA estimate for RXO to $18 million, citing rising costs and soft demand as key factors affecting brokerage profitability.
Spot Rates and Capacity Issues: Spot rates have risen, with dry van pricing climbing to $1.73 per mile, but demand remains soft, and sustained tender rejection rates are necessary for a significant increase in spot volumes.
Forecast Adjustments: Hoexter has cut his fourth-quarter brokerage gross margin estimate and adjusted his loss and profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, while maintaining a valuation based on 2027 estimates, emphasizing the importance of capacity durability and market recovery.
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Cass Transportation Index: Freight Market Softness with Rising Rates
- Volume Decline: The Cass Freight Index reported a 7.2% month-over-month drop in shipments for December, with a year-over-year decline of 7.5%, indicating softness in the freight market despite stabilizing prices, highlighting industry challenges.
- Elevated Expenditures: Although expenditures fell by 1.9% month-over-month in December and only 0.6% year-over-year, this reflects persistent high freight costs that have not decreased as much as shipment volumes, following significant increases in 2021 and 2022.
- Truckload Index Recovery: The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index rose by 1.0% month-over-month in December and posted a 1.8% increase for 2025, recovering from declines of 10% in 2023 and 3.4% in 2024, indicating gradual market recovery.
- Future Demand Outlook: Cass Information Systems suggests that after significant destocking in Q4, a favorable Supreme Court ruling on IEEPA tariffs could act as a positive catalyst for freight demand moving forward.
Analyst Cautions That RXO May Experience Margin Pressure Due to Tightening Truck Supply
Margin Pressure and Profitability: RXO Inc. is experiencing increased margin pressure due to tightening truck capacity and rising spot rates, leading to expected results falling below the company's target range.
Analyst Outlook: Bank of America Securities analyst Ken Hoexter has lowered his fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted EBITDA estimate for RXO to $18 million, citing rising costs and soft demand as key factors affecting brokerage profitability.
Spot Rates and Capacity Issues: Spot rates have risen, with dry van pricing climbing to $1.73 per mile, but demand remains soft, and sustained tender rejection rates are necessary for a significant increase in spot volumes.
Forecast Adjustments: Hoexter has cut his fourth-quarter brokerage gross margin estimate and adjusted his loss and profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, while maintaining a valuation based on 2027 estimates, emphasizing the importance of capacity durability and market recovery.
