2026 Canadian Dollar Forecast: Concerns Over Tariff Risks Are Exaggerated

Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst

Source: InvestingliveForex

Updated: Jan 01 2026

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Source: InvestingliveForex

Supreme Court Decision on Tariffs: The Supreme Court is expected to rule on the legality of US tariffs on Canada soon, with potential implications for the Canadian dollar and global growth, depending on whether tariffs are upheld or struck down.
USMCA Agreement Outlook: The US Trade Representative indicated a desire to stay in the USMCA agreement, with positive feedback from lawmakers, suggesting that the agreement will remain in force despite some uncertainties.
Commodity Market Trends: A positive outlook for commodities in 2026 is anticipated, with Canadian oil company stocks reflecting growing confidence in the oil sands, despite challenges in the oil market.
Canadian Housing and Consumer Resilience: Despite a decline in housing prices, Canadian consumers have shown resilience, which may lead to potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Canada later in the year, contributing to a projected 5% rally in the loonie.

About the author

Emily J. Thompson

Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.