Vale SA lowers iron ore production outlook amid global demand decline.
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 05 Dec 25
Source: SeekingAlpha
Vale SA's stock fell by 5.01% and crossed down its 5-day SMA as the company reduced its iron ore production outlook for FY 2026.
The company now expects to produce between 335 million and 345 million tons, slightly below previous forecasts, citing declining global demand and increased supply from Africa as key factors.
This adjustment reflects Vale's cautious approach in response to market dynamics, particularly as demand from China shows signs of weakness, impacting future profitability and shareholder returns.
Analyst Views on VALE
Wall Street analysts forecast VALE stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for VALE is 13.93 USD with a low forecast of 12.00 USD and a high forecast of 15.50 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
13 Analyst Rating
9 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 16.760
Low
12.00
Averages
13.93
High
15.50
Current: 16.760
Low
12.00
Averages
13.93
High
15.50
About VALE
Vale SA, formerly Companhia Vale do Rio Doce, is a Brazil-based metal and mining company which is primarily engaged in producing iron ore and nickel. The Company also produces iron ore pellets, copper, platinum group metals (PGMs), gold, silver and cobalt. Vale is engaged in greenfield mineral exploration in five countries and operates logistics systems in Brazil and other regions in the world, including railroads, maritime terminals and ports, which are integrated with mining operations. In addition, Vale has distribution centers to support the delivery of iron ore worldwide. Vale has numerous subsidiaries, including Vale Logistica Uruguay SA, Vale Holdings BV, Vale Overseas Ltd. The Company’s operations abroad cover approximately 30 countries.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
