Rivian Automotive Inc. shares fell 5.04% today, hitting a 5-day low amid broader market declines, with the Nasdaq-100 down 0.67% and the S&P 500 down 0.36%.
The decline follows UBS's downgrade of Rivian from neutral to sell, expressing concerns over the company's inflated valuation despite raising the price target to $15, which is still about 20% below the recent closing price. The analyst also reduced sales forecasts for Rivian's upcoming R2 model, predicting sales to be 16% and 19% below consensus for 2026 and 2027, respectively, amid a challenging market environment without EV tax credits.
This downgrade reflects growing investor concerns about Rivian's future performance, particularly as it faces increased competition and potential demand weakness for its new models. The market's reaction indicates a cautious sentiment towards Rivian's growth prospects.
Wall Street analysts forecast RIVN stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for RIVN is 17.78 USD with a low forecast of 10.00 USD and a high forecast of 25.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
18 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast RIVN stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for RIVN is 17.78 USD with a low forecast of 10.00 USD and a high forecast of 25.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
8 Buy
7 Hold
3 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 15.750
Low
10.00
Averages
17.78
High
25.00
Current: 15.750
Low
10.00
Averages
17.78
High
25.00
Piper Sandler
Neutral
maintain
$14 -> $20
2026-01-08
Reason
Piper Sandler
Price Target
$14 -> $20
AI Analysis
2026-01-08
maintain
Neutral
Reason
Piper Sandler raised the firm's price target on Rivian to $20 from $14 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Discussing the outlook for 2026, the firm says it expects North American sales to fall 1.2% in 2026 due to persistent concerns regarding affordability. Lower sales should have a downward impact on production, but this may be blunted by re-shoring and fewer imports. In Europe, Piper expects sales to revert to growth in 2026, driven by an influx of cheap Chinese vehicles and rising government support. The firm further expects production to remain flat, due to weakening demand for domestic cars and lower exports. In China, Piper sees sales falling 3.0% in 2026 due to macro weakness and expiring subsidies. Continued export growth should partially offset the effect of lower demand on production, which it has as falling 1.8% year-over-year in 2026.
Goldman Sachs
Neutral
maintain
$16 -> $18
2026-01-05
Reason
Goldman Sachs
Price Target
$16 -> $18
2026-01-05
maintain
Neutral
Reason
Goldman Sachs raised the firm's price target on Rivian to $18 from $16 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Rivian's Q4 deliveries were 9.7K, down 26% quarter over quarter and 31% year over year, slightly below the firm's estimate, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Goldman believes key focus items going forward will be on the R2, and with its autonomy efforts.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for RIVN
Unlock Now
Morgan Stanley
Underweight
maintain
$12
2026-01-02
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
$12
2026-01-02
maintain
Underweight
Reason
Morgan Stanley reiterated an Underweight rating and $12 price target on Rivian after the company announced a 31% year-over-year decline Q4 deliveries. All eyes are now on Q4 earnings and 2026 guidance, particularly the R2 ramp, and the firm maintains its cautious view on demand in 2026 following the expiration of the EV tax credit and the evolving tech hardware roadmap, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm added that the introduction of LiDAR in late 2026 for advanced levels of autonomy may yield a demand air-pocket for most of 2026 as customers wait for Rivian's latest gen tech platform.
Wedbush
Daniel Ives
Outperform
maintain
$16 -> $25
2025-12-19
Reason
Wedbush
Daniel Ives
Price Target
$16 -> $25
2025-12-19
maintain
Outperform
Reason
Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives raised the firm's price target on Rivian to $25 from $16 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm believes 2026 represents a significant year for the company with the launch of R2 in the first half of 2026 expected to drive improving delivery metrics and improvements to its autonomy roadmap to tap into alternative revenue sources while strategically managing its cost structure given rising tariff risks and investments in its business.
About RIVN
Rivian Automotive, Inc. is an automotive manufacturer, which is engaged in developing and building category-defining electric vehicles (EVs) and accessories, as well as software and services that address the entire lifecycle of the vehicle. The Company’s R1 platform consists of two vehicles: the R1T, a two-row five-passenger pickup truck, and the R1S, a three-row seven-passenger sport utility vehicle (SUV). In the commercial market, the Company offers a Rivian Commercial Vehicle (RCV) platform. The vehicle on this platform is the Electric Delivery Van (EDV), designed and engineered by Rivian in collaboration with Amazon. The Company also offers FleetOS, its proprietary, end-to-end centralized fleet management subscription platform. It also offers a variety of services, including vehicle repair and maintenance, financing, insurance, software subscriptions and FleetOS solutions. Its value-added services include vehicle electrical architecture and software development services, and more.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
