Valero Energy Corp's stock fell by 3.07% today, hitting a 20-day low amid broader market weakness, with the Nasdaq-100 down 0.06% and the S&P 500 down 0.21%.
The decline follows a downgrade from Bank of America, which lowered Valero's rating from Buy to Neutral due to valuation concerns and a weakened risk-reward profile in the oil and gas sector. The firm cited uncertainties affecting refining margins and reduced price targets, indicating that even without geopolitical tensions, Valero's free cash flow yields are insufficient for stock appreciation. This downgrade reflects a broader negative outlook for refiners, as oversupplied oil markets and lower projected Brent crude prices weigh on the sector.
Investors are likely to remain cautious as Valero navigates these challenges, particularly given the ongoing geopolitical risks and the potential for further downgrades in the sector. The company's market position remains relatively favorable compared to peers, but the recent stock performance suggests limited upside potential.
Wall Street analysts forecast VLO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for VLO is 186.56 USD with a low forecast of 149.00 USD and a high forecast of 223.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
17 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast VLO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for VLO is 186.56 USD with a low forecast of 149.00 USD and a high forecast of 223.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
11 Buy
6 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 184.020
Low
149.00
Averages
186.56
High
223.00
Current: 184.020
Low
149.00
Averages
186.56
High
223.00
Morgan Stanley
Equal Weight
maintain
$175 -> $180
2026-01-27
New
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
$175 -> $180
AI Analysis
2026-01-27
New
maintain
Equal Weight
Reason
Morgan Stanley raised the firm's price target on Valero to $180 from $175 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. Refining stocks have risen by about 10% year-to-date on the back of widening light/heavy differentials following the recent Venezuela events, the analyst noted. Updating for the latest forward cracks, the firm's Q1 EPS estimates for its large-cap refiner coverage are about 5%-10% below consensus on average, the analyst tells investors in a Q4 preview for the group. On a long-term basis, the firm remains constructive on the refining outlook, but it reiterates an In-Line industry view driven by valuation.
Scotiabank
Outperform
maintain
$149 -> $178
2026-01-16
Reason
Scotiabank
Price Target
$149 -> $178
2026-01-16
maintain
Outperform
Reason
Scotiabank raised the firm's price target on Valero to $178 from $149 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm is updating its price targets for U.S. Integrated Oil, Refining, and Large Cap Exploration & Production, E&P, stocks under its coverage, the analyst tells investors. Scotiabank expects earnings for the quarter to be straightforward due to the absence of major winter weather disruptions. Additionally, looking ahead, the firm expects investors to focus on whether recent market turmoil will cause changes to 2026 guidance and if any E&P companies will adopt cost reduction programs.
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Mizuho
Nitin Kumar
Neutral
maintain
$192 -> $197
2026-01-09
Reason
Mizuho
Nitin Kumar
Price Target
$192 -> $197
2026-01-09
maintain
Neutral
Reason
Mizuho analyst Nitin Kumar raised the firm's price target on Valero to $197 from $192 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm expects the company to report a strong quarter.
Morgan Stanley
NULL -> Overweight
maintain
2026-01-08
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
2026-01-08
maintain
NULL -> Overweight
Reason
Morgan Stanley raised the firm's price target on Valeo to EUR 13.50 from EUR 12.20 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares.
About VLO
Valero Energy Corporation, through its subsidiaries, is a multinational manufacturer and marketer of petroleum-based and low-carbon liquid transportation fuels and petrochemical products. The Company sells its products primarily in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland and Latin America. Its segments include Refining, Renewable Diesel, and Ethanol. The Refining segment includes the operations of its petroleum refineries, the associated activities to market its refined petroleum products, and the logistics assets that support its refining operations. The Renewable Diesel segment represents the operations of Diamond Green Diesel (DGD), and the associated activities to market renewable diesel, renewable naphtha, and neat SAF. The Ethanol segment includes the operations of its ethanol plants and the associated activities to market its ethanol and co-products. It owns 15 petroleum refineries located in the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
