Alcoa Corp (AA) has seen a significant decline in its stock price, hitting a 5-day low as it was downgraded by Wells Fargo from Overweight to Equal Weight. The downgrade was driven by concerns that investors may be underestimating substitution risks for aluminum and that recent stock price increases are unsustainable.
Wells Fargo raised Alcoa's price target from $58 to $71 based on a 5x estimated 2026 EBITDA, but noted that nearly half of its estimated 2025 EBITDA comes from its alumina segment, which is currently facing depressed prices. The analyst expressed skepticism about any imminent relief from weakness in the alumina market and indicated that there are no apparent benefits from tariff relief for Alcoa's Canadian operations.
This downgrade reflects broader concerns about the aluminum market and suggests that investors should be cautious. The ongoing challenges in the alumina segment could continue to weigh on Alcoa's performance in the near term.
Wall Street analysts forecast AA stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AA is 46.00 USD with a low forecast of 33.00 USD and a high forecast of 58.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
10 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast AA stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AA is 46.00 USD with a low forecast of 33.00 USD and a high forecast of 58.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Buy
2 Hold
2 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 60.640
Low
33.00
Averages
46.00
High
58.00
Current: 60.640
Low
33.00
Averages
46.00
High
58.00
Morgan Stanley
Overweight -> Equal Weight
downgrade
$52 -> $64
2026-01-26
New
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
$52 -> $64
AI Analysis
2026-01-26
New
downgrade
Overweight -> Equal Weight
Reason
Morgan Stanley downgraded Alcoa to Equal Weight from Overweight with a price target of $64, up from $52.
Morgan Stanley
Overweight
to
Equal Weight
downgrade
$52 -> $64
2026-01-26
New
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
$52 -> $64
2026-01-26
New
downgrade
Overweight
to
Equal Weight
Reason
Morgan Stanley downgraded Alcoa to Equal Weight from Overweight with a price target of $64, up from $52. While the firm continues to see the company benefitting from elevated LME aluminum pricing, the stock has significantly outperformed peers in recent months and the firm now sees a more balanced risk-reward, the analyst tells investors.
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B. Riley
Nick Giles
Buy
maintain
$44 -> $78
2026-01-23
Reason
B. Riley
Nick Giles
Price Target
$44 -> $78
2026-01-23
maintain
Buy
Reason
B. Riley analyst Nick Giles raised the firm's price target on Alcoa to $78 from $44 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company reported a solid Q4 beat and is well positioned for a strong 2026, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says Alcoa plans to direct excess 2026 cash flow toward additional debt reduction while retaining the flexibility to evaluate shareholder returns. Riley cites a revised commodity price deck for the target boost.
BMO Capital
Market Perform
downgrade
$67 -> $65
2026-01-23
Reason
BMO Capital
Price Target
$67 -> $65
2026-01-23
downgrade
Market Perform
Reason
BMO Capital lowered the firm's price target on Alcoa to $65 from $67 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares. The company delivered a Q4 earnings beat, although driven primarily by a one-time CO2 credit, and looking ahead, while 2026 aluminum production and shipment targets are largely in line with estimates, its alumina targets are mixed, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Alcoa reached the higher end of its net debt target, although in the near-term the focus is on maintaining this position and on further debt reduction, the firm added.
About AA
Alcoa Corporation is a vertically integrated aluminum company comprised of bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminum production (smelting and casting), and energy generation. The Company’s operations are comprised of two business segments: Alumina and Aluminum. The Alumina segment primarily consists of its bauxite mines and alumina refineries, which generally include the mining of bauxite and other aluminous ores, as well as the refining, production, and sale of smelter grade and non-metallurgical alumina. The alumina produced by this segment is sold to internal and external aluminum smelter customers; a portion of the alumina is sold to external customers who process it into industrial chemical products. The Aluminum segment consists of the Company’s aluminum smelting and casting operations along with the Company’s energy production assets in Brazil, Canada, and the United States. It has direct and indirect ownership of 26 operating locations across nine countries on six continents.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
