US Market Outlook: Government Shutdown Risk Near 80%; Silver Prices Surge

US Stock Market Pre-Market Update

As of Monday morning, US stock futures are showing slight fluctuations. The Dow Jones futures are up by 0.01%, while the Nasdaq futures are down by 0.19%, and the S&P 500 futures have decreased by 0.07%.

Major Tech Stocks

Most major tech stocks are down in pre-market trading:

• Intel (INTC) is down nearly 2%
• Micron Technology (MU) has dropped over 1%
• AMD, Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA) are down close to 1%
• Apple (AAPL) is up over 1%

Chinese Stocks

Most Chinese stocks are also trending downwards:

• Alibaba (BABA) and Xpeng Motors (XPEV) are down nearly 2%
• Baidu (BIDU) and Bilibili (BILI) have dropped over 1%
• TSMC (TSM) and NIO (NIO) are down close to 1%

Rare Earth Stocks

Rare earth stocks are generally rising:

• USA Rare Earth (USAR) is up over 21%
• United States Antimony (UAMY) is up nearly 10%
• American Resources (AREC) is up close to 9%
• MP Materials (MP) is up over 4%
• Critical Metals (CRML) is up over 3%
• TMC the metals (TMC) is up nearly 2%

Gold and Silver Stocks

Gold and silver stocks are also seeing gains:

• Namib Minerals (NAMM) is up over 16%
• First Majestic Silver (AG) and Pan American Silver (PAAS) are both up over 7%
• Dolly Varden Silver (DVS), Silvercorp Metals (SVM), and Hycroft Mining (HYMC) are all up over 6%

Nvidia's New Chip Plans

Nvidia (NVDA) is planning to launch Arm-based SoC chips, targeting the Windows consumer laptop market. This move aims to integrate CPU and GPU into a single SoC, potentially disrupting the traditional x86 CPU + discrete GPU model and impacting Intel (INTC) and AMD's positions in the Windows laptop market.

USA Rare Earth Funding Agreement

USA Rare Earth (USAR) has signed a non-binding letter of intent with the US government for $1.6 billion in funding. This includes $277 million in proposed federal grants and $1.3 billion in proposed senior secured loans under the CHIPS Act.

Allied Gold Acquisition

Allied Gold (AAUC) is up nearly 4% as Zijin Mining (02899.HK) plans to acquire 100% of its shares for CAD 5.5 billion. The acquisition includes key gold mining assets in Mali and Côte d'Ivoire.

Revolution Medicines Negotiation Halted

Revolution Medicines (RVMD) has seen a nearly 20% drop as Merck (MRK) halts acquisition talks due to price disagreements. The deal was initially valued at around $30 billion.

Battalion Oil Surge

Battalion Oil (BATL) has surged over 330% after announcing a new gas processing partnership, increasing its production capacity significantly.

SkyWater Technology Acquisition

SkyWater Technology (SKYT) is up over 7% as IonQ plans to acquire the chip manufacturer for $1.8 billion.

US Government Shutdown Probability

Forecasts indicate an 80% chance of a US government shutdown by the end of January, driven by recent political developments.

OPEC+ Production Policy

OPEC+ representatives suggest that the group may maintain its current oil production levels in response to global supply concerns and geopolitical risks.

China-US Economic Relations

China's Ministry of Commerce expresses willingness to manage differences and promote cooperation with the US to maintain stable economic relations.

Hong Kong IPO Market

Hong Kong's Financial Secretary reveals that over 400 companies are waiting for IPOs, many from advanced technology and manufacturing sectors.

Space Computing Network Initiative

China plans to establish a space computing network consisting of 2,800 satellites by 2035, aimed at serving silicon-based intelligent entities.

PBOC Support for Offshore RMB Market

The People's Bank of China supports increasing the offshore RMB liquidity arrangement in Hong Kong from 100 billion to 200 billion yuan.

EU Gas Import Ban

The EU Council has approved a ban on Russian gas imports, set to take effect in 2027, with penalties for non-compliance.

Upcoming US Economic Data

Key US economic data releases include November durable goods orders and the January Dallas Fed business activity index.