James Lavish Declares "The 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle Is Over," Unveils New Framework and BTC Price Forecast

Written by Ohris M. Greyoon, Blockchain & Crypto Expert

Source: Coinmarketcap

Updated: Dec 02 2025

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Change in Bitcoin Market Dynamics: Former hedge fund manager James Lavish argues that the traditional four-year halving cycle for Bitcoin is over, with market movements now driven by global liquidity and central bank policies rather than supply shocks.
Current Economic Conditions: Lavish describes a "K-shaped" recovery where wealthier individuals thrive while many face inflationary pressures, leading them to invest in Bitcoin not for wealth but to avoid poverty.
Future Bitcoin Projections: He predicts that Bitcoin could reach new highs between $150,000 and $180,000 by 2026, contingent on an expansion of liquidity, with a short-term price range expected between $80,000 and $100,000.
Federal Reserve's Role: Lavish believes the Federal Reserve will be compelled to implement quantitative easing to manage liquidity issues, especially if significant market disruptions occur.

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Technical Analysis for BTC

Technical Sentiment Analysis for Bitcoin (BTC) As of , Bitcoin (BTC) is exhibiting a Sell technical sentiment. Our proprietary analysis, which aggregates 3 technical signals, shows that 0 indicators are flashing buy, while 3 are indicating sell.

Momentum Indicators: RSI, MACD & Overbought/Oversold Status Currently, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC stands at -, which suggests a Neutral condition. Meanwhile, the MACD (12, 26) indicator is at -, providing a Neutral signal for short-term momentum. Other oscillators like the Stochastic Oscillator at - and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) at - further confirm a - outlook for the stock.

Support, Resistance & Moving Averages From a structural perspective, BTC is trading below its 60-day moving average of $- and below its 200-day long-term moving average of $-. Key price levels to watch include the immediate resistance at $- and strong support at $-. A break above $- could signal a bull continuation, while falling below $- may test the next Fibonacci floor at $-.

Bitcoin (BTC) Support & Resistance Level

Name	S3	S2	S1	Pivot Points	R1	R2	R3
Classic	36037.796	48018.898	60307.816	72288.918	84577.836	96558.938	108847.856
Fibonacci	48018.898	57290.046	63017.77	72288.918	81560.066	87287.79	96558.938

About BTC

Bitcoin is a decentralized cryptocurrency originally described in a 2008 whitepaper by a person, or group of people, using the alias Satoshi Nakamoto. It was launched soon after, in January 2009.Bitcoin is a peer-to-peer online currency, meaning that all transactions happen directly between equal, independent network participants, without the need for any intermediary to permit or facilitate them. Bitcoin was created, according to Nakamoto’s own words, to allow “online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution.”Some concepts for a similar type of a decentralized electronic currency precede BTC, but Bitcoin holds the distinction of being the first-ever cryptocurrency to come into actual use.

About the author

Ohris M. Greyoon

Ohris M. Greyoon holds a Master’s in Computer Science from MIT and has 10 years of experience in blockchain technology and cryptocurrency markets. A pioneer in decentralized finance (DeFi) analysis, he leads Intellectia’s Crypto News, offering cutting-edge insights into digital assets.

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