James Lavish Declares "The 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle Is Over," Unveils New Framework and BTC Price Forecast
Change in Bitcoin Market Dynamics: Former hedge fund manager James Lavish argues that the traditional four-year halving cycle for Bitcoin is over, with market movements now driven by global liquidity and central bank policies rather than supply shocks.
Current Economic Conditions: Lavish describes a "K-shaped" recovery where wealthier individuals thrive while many face inflationary pressures, leading them to invest in Bitcoin not for wealth but to avoid poverty.
Future Bitcoin Projections: He predicts that Bitcoin could reach new highs between $150,000 and $180,000 by 2026, contingent on an expansion of liquidity, with a short-term price range expected between $80,000 and $100,000.
Federal Reserve's Role: Lavish believes the Federal Reserve will be compelled to implement quantitative easing to manage liquidity issues, especially if significant market disruptions occur.
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Technical Analysis for BTC
Technical Sentiment Analysis for Bitcoin (BTC) As of , Bitcoin (BTC) is exhibiting a Sell technical sentiment. Our proprietary analysis, which aggregates 3 technical signals, shows that 0 indicators are flashing buy, while 3 are indicating sell.
Momentum Indicators: RSI, MACD & Overbought/Oversold Status Currently, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC stands at -, which suggests a Neutral condition. Meanwhile, the MACD (12, 26) indicator is at -, providing a Neutral signal for short-term momentum. Other oscillators like the Stochastic Oscillator at - and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) at - further confirm a - outlook for the stock.
Support, Resistance & Moving Averages From a structural perspective, BTC is trading below its 60-day moving average of $- and below its 200-day long-term moving average of $-. Key price levels to watch include the immediate resistance at $- and strong support at $-. A break above $- could signal a bull continuation, while falling below $- may test the next Fibonacci floor at $-.
Bitcoin (BTC) Support & Resistance Level
| Name | S3 | S2 | S1 | Pivot Points | R1 | R2 | R3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Classic | 36037.796 | 48018.898 | 60307.816 | 72288.918 | 84577.836 | 96558.938 | 108847.856 |
| Fibonacci | 48018.898 | 57290.046 | 63017.77 | 72288.918 | 81560.066 | 87287.79 | 96558.938 |
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