Shopify Inc (SHOP) FY2025Q1 Earning Prediction

05/08 04:00:00

Pre-Market

Shopify Inc (SHOP) is set to release its FY2025Q1 earnings performance on 05/08 04:00:00 in Pre-Market trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 2.33B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 0.26 for the FY2025Q1. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!

Estimate

Actual

Surprise

RevenueBEAT

2.33B

2.36B

+1.18%

EPSBEAT

0.26

0.27

+3.85%

AI Summary

Attend Webcast

AI Earnings Prediction

Prediction for FY2025Q1

Earnings Date: May 8, 2025

Shopify’s Q1 earnings are anticipated to be neutral overall, with cost efficiencies and AI adoption balancing out consumer softness and tariff challenges.

Neutral

Last 0 quarters:

5 beats0 misses

Scenario Analysis

The AI analyzes the probability of each scenario occurring and identifies the triggering conditions.

Scenario

Prob.

Stock Reaction

Trigger Condition

Strong Beat

15%

+8-12%

GMV growth >25%, international revenue accelerates >30%, EPS >$0.30.

Beat

35%

+3-5%

EPS beats ($0.28-$0.30) with in-line revenue, margin upside emphasized.

Neutral

40%

Flat

EPS meets ($0.26), revenue/GMV in-line with lowered expectations.

Miss

-5-7%

GMV growth <20%, revenue <$2.3B, weak international growth.

Strong Miss

-10-15%

EPS <$0.20, guidance withdrawn due to macro/tariff risks.

Unlock Free Scenario Probability

Key Indicators Forecast

The AI provides itemized forecasts for key indicators, potentially including revenue, EPS, gross margin, and free cash flow.

Revenue

EPS

Currency:

No data

Actual

Estimate

Metric

Prediction

Justification

Revenue

Miss

Merchant checks suggest GMV growth (~21%) below consensus (25%), compounded by tariff uncertainty and consumer softness.

EPS

Beat

OpEx discipline (lower S&M spend) and AI-driven efficiency gains likely offset weaker revenue.

GMV Growth

Neutral

Roth’s survey implies modest underperformance, but historical outperformance vs. surveys (+590 bps) tempers downside.

Free Cash Flow Margin

Beat

AI adoption and cost cuts drive margin expansion despite revenue headwinds.

International Growth

Beat

New Shop Pay Installments in Canada/U.K. and Braze partnership support international diversification.

Unlock Free Key Indicators Forecast

Prediction Logic & Rational

The Fact Data presents mixed signals for Shopify’s Q1 earnings:

Positive Catalysts:

Cost Efficiency & Margin Upside: Analysts (Oppenheimer, Loop Capital) highlight potential operating expense (OpEx) savings from reduced marketing spend and AI-driven automation, which could boost EPS.
Global Expansion: Partnerships with Affirm and Braze to accelerate Shop Pay Installments in Canada, the U.K., and Europe may support international revenue growth.
AI Adoption: CEO Tobi Lutke’s mandate for employees to use AI could improve productivity, aiding free cash flow margins.

Negative Risks:

Consumer Softness: Merchant checks by Roth Capital indicate slower GMV growth (21% YoY vs. 25% estimate) and weaker consumer spending in March/April.
Tariff Headwinds: RBC and KeyBanc note inflationary tariff impacts and reduced visibility, which could pressure revenue growth.
Lowered Estimates: Multiple analysts (Morgan Stanley, Wedbush, Mizuho) revised revenue and EPS estimates downward due to macro uncertainty.

Balanced Outlook: While cost controls might drive an EPS beat, revenue growth risks (tariffs, consumer demand) and mixed GMV data offset upside potential. Market expectations have likely reset lower after the stock’s 20% decline, but Fact Data lacks conclusive evidence for a significant beat/miss.

Prediction Logic & Rational

Tactical Strategy Recommendations

Neutral/Bearish Bias: Given limited upside catalysts and tariff risks, consider:
1. Short-Term Put Spreads: Buy May $90 puts / sell $85 puts to hedge downside.
2. Iron Condor: Sell May $100 calls / $95 puts; buy $105 calls / $85 puts (capitalize on volatility compression).
3. Avoid Long Calls: High implied volatility (IV) after recent selloff makes premiums expensive.

Key Risks: A surprise GMV/revenue beat from international expansion or stronger-than-expected AI cost savings could trigger a short squeeze.

Tactical Strategy Recommendations

Earnings Surprise Analysis

The chart displays the extent of earnings surprises and corresponding stock price movements for each earnings event.

Revenue

EPS

SHOP Transcript

Shopify Inc. (SHOP) Presents at 53rd Annual Nasdaq Investor Conference Transcript

Neutral12-12

Shopify Inc. (SHOP) Presents at UBS Global Technology and AI Conference 2025 Transcript

Neutral12-3

Shopify Inc. (SHOP) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Positive11-4

The earnings call highlights strong revenue and gross profit growth, particularly in Canada and the home and garden vertical. Operating expenses improved as a percentage of revenue. The Q&A section reveals positive sentiment towards AI integration and enterprise growth, despite some vague responses on ad revenue. Overall, the company's strategic moves and financial performance suggest a positive stock price movement, likely in the 2% to 8% range.

Shopify Inc. (SHOP) Presents At Citi's 2025 Global Technology, Media And Telecommunications Conference Transcript

Neutral9-3

SHOP Report

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Shopify Inc FY2025Q1 Earnings Release Date and Time?

Shopify Inc (SHOP) is scheduled to release its FY2025Q1 earnings report onMay 8, 2025, Pre-Market(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.

What Are the Consensus Forecasts for Shopify Inc FY2025Q1 Revenue and EPS?

Analysts' consensus predicts 2.33B in revenue and an EPS of 0.26 for Shopify Inc's FY2025Q1.

What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for Shopify Inc FY2025Q1 Earnings?

Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Neutral forShopify Inc's FY2025Q1 earnings, with a prediction date of May 8, 2025. Shopify Inc Shopify’s Q1 earnings are anticipated to be neutral overall, with cost efficiencies and AI adoption balancing out consumer softness and tariff challenges.

How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade SHOP Stock?

Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theMay 8, 2025 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.

How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like Shopify Inc FY2025Q1?

Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.

How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?

AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!

When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?

Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.

Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?

Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2024-2025 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!